Northern Trust Asset Management 2025 Global Investment Outlook: Expect U.S. Stocks to Outperform; High Yield Bond Market Is Attractive
Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM), managing $1.3 trillion in assets, forecasts U.S. stock outperformance in 2025, supported by strong earnings and healthy sales growth. The firm maintains a preference for equities over fixed income in multi-asset portfolios, expecting U.S. equities to benefit from an economic soft landing. In fixed income, NTAM favors high yield bonds due to elevated yields and strong fundamentals.
The outlook includes positive views on small cap equities, money market funds, and private credit. For the U.S. economy, NTAM projects a soft landing with growth slightly below 2024 levels and inflation easing toward 2%. The outlook notes challenges in Europe's economic picture and concerns about China's growth falling short of its 5% target.
Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM), con un patrimonio di 1,3 trilioni di dollari, prevede una sovraperformance delle azioni statunitensi nel 2025, supportata da utili robusti e una buona crescita delle vendite. L'azienda mantiene una preferenza per le azioni rispetto ai redditi fissi nei portafogli multi-asset, aspettandosi che le azioni statunitensi traggano vantaggio da un atterraggio economico morbido. Nel reddito fisso, NTAM favorisce le obbligazioni ad alto rendimento a causa dei rendimenti elevati e dei solidi fondamentali.
Le prospettive includono opinioni positive sulle azioni a piccola capitalizzazione, sui fondi del mercato monetario e sul credito privato. Per l'economia statunitense, NTAM prevede un atterraggio morbido con una crescita leggermente al di sotto dei livelli del 2024 e un'inflazione in diminuzione verso il 2%. La panoramica evidenzia le sfide nel contesto economico europeo e le preoccupazioni riguardo alla crescita della Cina che potrebbe non raggiungere il suo obiettivo del 5%.
Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM), que gestiona 1,3 billones de dólares en activos, pronostica un mejor rendimiento de las acciones estadounidenses en 2025, respaldado por ganancias sólidas y un saludable crecimiento en las ventas. La firma mantiene una preferencia por las acciones en lugar de los instrumentos de renta fija en carteras de múltiples activos, esperando que las acciones estadounidenses se beneficien de un aterrizaje económico suave. En renta fija, NTAM prefiere bonos de alto rendimiento debido a los altos rendimientos y los sólidos fundamentos.
Las perspectivas incluyen opiniones positivas sobre las acciones de pequeña capitalización, los fondos del mercado monetario y el crédito privado. Para la economía de EE. UU., NTAM proyecta un aterrizaje suave con un crecimiento ligeramente por debajo de los niveles de 2024 y una inflación que tiende a bajar hacia el 2%. El pronóstico señala desafíos en la situación económica de Europa y preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento de China, que podría no alcanzar su objetivo del 5%.
노던 트러스트 자산 관리(Northern Trust Asset Management, NTAM)는 1.3조 달러의 자산을 관리하며 2025년 미국 주식의 초과 성과를 예상합니다. 이는 강력한 수익과 건강한 매출 성장에 의해 지지됩니다. 이 회사는 다중 자산 포트폴리오에서 고정 수익보다 주식 선호를 유지하며, 미국 주식이 경제적 소프트 랜딩의 이점을 누릴 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 고정 수익 부문에서 NTAM은 높은 수익률과 강력한 펀더멘털로 인해 하이일드 채권을 선호합니다.
그 전망은 소형주, 머니 마켓 펀드 및 민간 신용에 대한 긍정적인 견해를 포함하고 있습니다. NTAM은 미국 경제에 대해 2024년 수준보다 약간 낮은 성장률과 2%로 완화되는 인플레이션을 예상하는 소프트 랜딩을 예상합니다. 전망은 유럽의 경제 상황과 중국의 성장률이 5% 목표에 미치지 못할 것이라는 우려를 강조합니다.
Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM), gérant 1,3 trillion de dollars d'actifs, prévoit une surperformance des actions américaines en 2025, soutenue par de solides bénéfices et une bonne croissance des ventes. La société maintient une préférence pour les actions par rapport aux obligations dans des portefeuilles multi-actifs, s'attendant à ce que les actions américaines bénéficient d'un atterrissage économique en douceur. En matière de revenus fixes, NTAM privilégie les obligations à haut rendement en raison de rendements élevés et de fondamentaux solides.
Les perspectives incluent des vues positives sur les actions de petite capitalisation, les fonds monétaires et le crédit privé. Pour l'économie américaine, NTAM prévoit un atterrissage en douceur avec une croissance légèrement inférieure aux niveaux de 2024 et une inflation diminuant vers 2%. Les perspectives notent les défis dans la situation économique européenne et des inquiétudes concernant la croissance chinoise, qui pourrait ne pas atteindre son objectif de 5%.
Northern Trust Asset Management (NTAM), das 1,3 Billionen Dollar an Vermögen verwaltet, prognostiziert eine Überrendite von US-Aktien im Jahr 2025, unterstützt durch starke Erträge und gesundes Verkaufswachstum. Das Unternehmen hält eine Vorliebe für Aktien gegenüber Anleihen in Multi-Asset-Portfolios aufrecht und erwartet, dass US-Aktien von einer sanften wirtschaftlichen Landung profitieren werden. Im Bereich der festverzinslichen Wertpapiere favorisiert NTAM Hochzinsanleihen aufgrund erhöhter Renditen und solider Fundamentaldaten.
Der Ausblick umfasst positive Ansichten zu Small-Cap-Aktien, Geldmarktfonds und privatem Kredit. Für die US-Wirtschaft prognostiziert NTAM eine sanfte Landung mit einem Wachstum, das leicht unter den Werten von 2024 liegt, und einer Inflation, die auf 2% sinkt. Der Ausblick hebt Herausforderungen im wirtschaftlichen Bild Europas und Bedenken hinsichtlich des chinesischen Wachstums hervor, das hinter dem Ziel von 5% zurückbleiben könnte.
- Strong earnings and sales growth expected for U.S. stocks
- High yield bonds show elevated yields and strong fundamentals
- Credit ratings upgrades outpacing downgrades in high yield market
- Money market funds expected to maintain attractive yields
- Private credit market shows growth potential
- Economic growth expected to settle below 2024 levels
- China's economic growth falling short of 5% target
- Manufacturing sector contraction in Europe
- Deflationary concerns in China with near-zero consumer price inflation
Insights
The 2025 outlook from Northern Trust Asset Management presents significant insights for investors. With
- U.S. equities positioned for outperformance driven by healthy earnings growth and economic soft landing
- High-yield bonds showing attractive potential due to elevated yields and improved credit quality
- Small-cap opportunities emerging from expected interest rate cuts
- Money market funds maintaining appeal despite rate cuts
The regional divergence highlighted in this outlook merits attention. U.S. markets are expected to lead global performance, while Europe faces mixed signals with labor strength offset by manufacturing weakness. China's situation is particularly concerning, with growth below the
Earnings Growth Backs
Summarizing the outlook, NTAM Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., said: “In multi-asset portfolios, we maintain a preference for equities over fixed income. We expect
NTAM Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Christian Roth added, “Within fixed income, we continue to favor high yield bonds because of elevated yields, strong fundamentals and a supportive market backdrop. Credit ratings upgrades are outpacing downgrades, and the overall credit quality of the high yield market remains historically high.”
NTAM’s 2025 Global Investment Outlook across all asset classes globally may be found here: https://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/insights-research/2024/investment-management/global-investment-outlook
Asset class highlights include:
-
U.S. Equities: We expect softer but continuedU.S. economic growth to still translate into healthy earnings and revenue growth. We are also constructive on small cap equities, which will likely benefit from lower interest rates as about half of small cap debt is floating interest rate. - High Yield Bonds: Above-average yields, combined with historically high credit ratings in the high yield market, support a strong outlook.
-
Money Markets: Money market funds remain an attractive alternative to other cash management options like deposits or Treasury bills, even as the Federal Reserve has started to cut rates. We see little chance of money market rates returning to near-zero. The Bank of
England , with concerns over inflation, will likely cut rates at slower pace than European Central Bank while we expectJapan to increase its policy rate slowly. -
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): While
U.S. inflation likely will settle into a range above the Federal Reserve's target of2% for 2025, we expect the path to be bumpy. We believe TIPS are an important defensive portfolio component for unanticipated inflation. - Private Credit: We believe private credit has room to grow, supported by the shift of lending from traditional capital providers to private credit asset managers, while lower interest rates encourage potentially more mergers and acquisitions in 2025.
Global Economic Outlook
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About Northern Trust Asset Management
Northern Trust Asset Management is a global investment manager that helps investors navigate changing market environments in efforts to realize their long-term objectives. Entrusted with
Northern Trust Asset Management is composed of Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Fund Managers (
About Northern Trust
Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking to corporations, institutions, affluent families and individuals. Founded in
Northern Trust Corporation, Head Office: 50 South La Salle Street,
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Camilla Greene
+44 (0) 207 982 2176
Camilla.Greene@ntrs.com
Simon Ansell
+44 (0) 20 7982 1016
sa777@ntrs.com
US & Canada Contact:
Joanne Zalatoris
+1 (312) 900-3462
Joanne.zalatoris@ntrs.com
Source: Northern Trust
FAQ
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