Nucor Announces Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2025 Earnings

Rhea-AI Summary

Nucor (NYSE: NUE) provided guidance for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, forecasting EPS of $1.65 to $1.75. The company noted Q4 earnings are expected to decline versus Q3 2025 due to seasonal effects, fewer shipping days and lower volumes with margin compression in sheet.

Capital actions include ~0.7 million shares repurchased in Q4 at an average price of $145.23 and ~$1.2 billion returned to shareholders year-to-date via buybacks and dividends. Nucor flagged two scheduled outages at DRI facilities as a headwind for raw materials segment results and cited materially higher backlogs vs. last year as a positive outlook for 2026.

Positive

• Q4 2025 EPS guidance of $1.65–$1.75 per diluted share
• Repurchased ~0.7M shares in Q4 at $145.23 average
• Returned ~$1.2B to shareholders year-to-date
• Backlogs materially higher year-over-year entering 2026

Negative

• Q4 earnings expected to decrease across all segments versus Q3 2025
• Steel mills: lower volumes and margin compression primarily in sheet
• Steel products: lower volumes and higher average costs per ton
• Raw materials hit by two scheduled DRI outages in Q4

Key Figures

Q4 2025 EPS guidance (low) $1.65 per diluted share Guidance range for Q4 2025 earnings

Q4 2025 EPS guidance (high) $1.75 per diluted share Guidance range for Q4 2025 earnings

Q3 2025 EPS $2.63 per diluted share Reported net earnings per diluted share in Q3 2025

Q4 2024 EPS $1.22 per diluted share Reported net earnings per diluted share in Q4 2024

Q4 2025 buybacks 0.7 million shares at $145.23 Approximate shares repurchased and average price in Q4 2025

YTD 2025 buybacks 5.4 million shares at $128.66 Year-to-date repurchases and average price

YTD capital return $1.2 billion Total returned via repurchases and dividends year-to-date

Q4 earnings call time 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time Scheduled conference call on January 27, 2026

Market Reality Check

$160.69 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,315,517 vs 20-day average 1,379,591 (relative volume 0.95x), indicating typical trading activity ahead of this guidance update. normal

Technical Shares at $162.26, trading above the 200-day MA of $134.31 and within 3.45% of the 52-week high.

Peers on Argus

Peers showed mixed moves: STLD (+0.56%) and RS (+0.75%) rose while MT (-0.33%), PKX (-0.88%) and TX (-0.81%) declined, suggesting company-specific focus on NUE’s earnings guidance rather than a unified steel sector move.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 04	Management transition	Neutral	-1.3%	COO retirement timeline and promotion of CFO to President and COO.
Dec 01	Dividend increase	Positive	+0.8%	Raised quarterly dividend and highlighted long streak of dividend growth.
Oct 27	Earnings results	Positive	+3.9%	Stronger Q3 2025 earnings, solid net sales and EBITDA, capital returns.
Oct 14	Earnings call invite	Neutral	+1.1%	Announcement of Q3 2025 earnings webcast and access details.
Oct 07	Real estate news	Neutral	+0.1%	Sale of industrial property leased to Nucor Rebar in Dallas.

Pattern Detected

Recent NUE headlines (dividend raise, strong Q3 results, management changes) generally saw price moves that aligned directionally with the nature of the news.

Recent Company History

Over the past few months, Nucor has highlighted stable capital returns and solid operating performance. On Oct 27, 2025, Q3 2025 results showed higher sales and earnings, and the stock reacted positively. A webcast announcement on Oct 14, 2025 and a real estate-related headline on Oct 7, 2025 coincided with modest gains. The Dec 1, 2025 dividend increase underscored a long record of payouts. The current Q4 2025 EPS guidance connects directly to that prior indication that Q4 earnings would be lower than Q3 but follows a strong year-to-date backdrop.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement provides detailed Q4 2025 EPS guidance of $1.65–$1.75 per diluted share, lower than Q3’s $2.63 but above Q4 2024’s $1.22. Management cites seasonal effects, fewer shipping days and segment-specific margin and volume pressures, while highlighting about $1.2 billion returned to shareholders year-to-date. Investors may watch the January 2026 earnings release and call for updates on backlogs, construction demand, and performance across steel mills, steel products and raw materials.

Key Terms

direct reduced iron technical

"brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and hot briquetted iron / direct reduced iron; supplies"

Direct reduced iron (DRI) is a solid iron product made by removing oxygen from iron ore using natural gas, hydrogen, or similar reducing agents at lower temperatures than traditional blast furnaces, leaving a porous, ‘sponge-like’ metal. Investors watch DRI because it is a key feedstock for modern steelmaking, influences raw-material costs, energy and emissions profiles, and can shift demand between scrap, coal and gas/hydrogen markets — affecting profitability and capital needs across steel and mining companies.

ferro-alloys technical

"hot briquetted iron / direct reduced iron; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and"

Ferro-alloys are metallic mixtures made by combining iron with other elements (such as silicon, manganese or chromium) that act like “seasonings” added during steelmaking to give steel specific properties like strength, hardness or resistance to rust. They matter to investors because ferro-alloy supply, quality and prices directly affect steelmakers’ costs and output, influence profitability across construction and manufacturing chains, and can signal shifts in industrial demand or supply-chain risk.

forward-looking statements regulatory

"Certain statements contained in this news release are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks"

Forward-looking statements are predictions or plans that companies share about what they expect to happen in the future, like estimating sales or profits. They matter because they help investors understand a company's outlook, but since they are based on guesses and assumptions, they can sometimes be wrong.

form 10-k regulatory

"including those in "Item 1A. Risk Factors" of Nucor's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year"

A Form 10-K is a comprehensive report that publicly traded companies are required to file annually with regulators. It provides a detailed overview of a company's financial health, operations, and risks, similar to a detailed health report. Investors use this information to assess the company's performance and make informed decisions about buying or selling its stock.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

CHARLOTTE, N.C., Dec. 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) today announced guidance for its fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025. Nucor expects fourth quarter earnings to be in the range of $1.65 to $1.75 per diluted share. Nucor reported net earnings of $2.63 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2025 and $1.22 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Fourth Quarter of 2025 Commentary
Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decrease across all three of our operating segments as compared to the third quarter of 2025, driven by seasonal effects and fewer shipping days in Nucor's fiscal quarter. The steel mills segment earnings are projected to decrease due to lower volumes and margin compression, primarily in sheet. In the steel products segments, earnings are expected to decline on lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, partially offset by higher average realized pricing. The raw materials segment is expected to have lower earnings, mainly as a result of two scheduled outages at our DRI facilities.

Capital Returns
During the fourth quarter, Nucor has repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares at an average price of $145.23 per share (approximately 5.4 million shares year-to-date at an average price of $128.66 per share). Nucor has returned approximately $1.2 billion to stockholders in the form of share repurchases and dividend payments year-to-date. 

2026 Outlook
As we look ahead into 2026, we are encouraged by backlogs that are materially higher than they were a year ago at this time, reflecting continuing momentum in select construction market segments such as energy, infrastructure, data centers and manufacturing.  We are also optimistic that monetary, tax and trade policy will lead to continued gradual improvement in business conditions for Nucor.

Fourth Quarter of 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Nucor plans to release its earnings after the markets close on Monday, January 26, 2026, and will host a conference call the morning of Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time to review the Company's fourth quarter results. The event will be broadcast on the internet, and instructions on how to access will be sent closer to the call.

About Nucor
Nucor and its affiliates are manufacturers of steel and steel products, with operating facilities in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Products produced include: carbon and alloy steel -- in bars, beams, sheet and plate; hollow structural section tubing; electrical conduit; steel racking; steel piling; steel joists and joist girders; steel deck; fabricated concrete reinforcing steel; cold finished steel; precision castings; steel fasteners; metal building systems; insulated metal panels; overhead doors; steel grating; wire and wire mesh; and utility structures. Nucor, through The David J. Joseph Company and its affiliates, also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and hot briquetted iron / direct reduced iron; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap. Nucor is North America's largest recycler.

Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this news release are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties which we expect will or may occur in the future and may impact our business, financial condition and results of operations. The words "anticipate," "believe," "expect," "intend," "project," "may," "will," "should," "could" and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect the Company's best judgment based on current information, and, although we base these statements on circumstances that we believe to be reasonable when made, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect the accuracy of such forward-looking information. As such, the forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results may vary materially from the projected results and expectations discussed in this news release. Factors that might cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: (1) competitive pressure on sales and pricing, including pressure from imports and substitute materials; (2) U.S. and foreign trade policies affecting steel imports or exports; (3) the sensitivity of the results of our operations to general market conditions, and in particular, prevailing market steel prices and changes in the supply and cost of raw materials, including pig iron, iron ore and scrap steel; (4) the availability and cost of electricity and natural gas, which could negatively affect our cost of steel production or result in a delay or cancellation of existing or future drilling within our natural gas drilling programs; (5) critical equipment failures and business interruptions; (6) market demand for steel products, which, in the case of many of our products, is driven by the level of nonresidential construction activity in the United States; (7) impairment in the recorded value of inventory, equity investments, fixed assets, goodwill or other long-lived assets; (8) uncertainties and volatility surrounding the global economy, including excess world capacity for steel production, inflation and interest rate changes; (9) fluctuations in currency conversion rates; (10) significant changes in laws or government regulations affecting environmental compliance, including legislation and regulations that result in greater regulation of greenhouse gas emissions that could increase our energy costs, capital expenditures and operating costs or cause one or more of our permits to be revoked or make it more difficult to obtain permit modifications; (11) the cyclical nature of the steel industry; (12) capital investments and their impact on our performance; (13) our safety performance; (14) our ability to integrate businesses we acquire; and (15) the impact of any pandemic or public health situation. These and other factors are discussed in Nucor's regulatory filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including those in "Item 1A. Risk Factors" of Nucor's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024. The forward-looking statements contained in this news release speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, except as may be required by applicable law.

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SOURCE Nucor Corporation

FAQ

What EPS did Nucor (NUE) guide for Q4 2025 and when will results be released?

Nucor guided $1.65 to $1.75 EPS for Q4 2025; results will be released after market close on January 26, 2026.

How much stock did Nucor (NUE) repurchase in Q4 2025 and at what price?

Nucor repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares in Q4 2025 at an average price of $145.23 per share.

Why does Nucor (NUE) expect Q4 2025 earnings to decline versus Q3 2025?

Management cited seasonal effects, fewer shipping days, lower volumes, and margin compression—especially in sheet products.

What impact do the scheduled DRI outages have on Nucor's Q4 2025 results (NUE)?

Two scheduled outages at DRI facilities are expected to reduce raw materials segment earnings in Q4 2025.

How much has Nucor (NUE) returned to shareholders year-to-date through buybacks and dividends in 2025?

Nucor has returned approximately $1.2 billion to shareholders year-to-date in 2025.

What is Nucor's outlook for 2026 based on the Q4 2025 guidance (NUE)?

Nucor said backlogs are materially higher than a year ago and management is encouraged about demand in energy, infrastructure, data centers and manufacturing for 2026.