Realtor.com® 2026 Forecast Update: Home Price Growth To Cool Further, Trailing Inflation

Rhea-AI Summary

Realtor.com (NASDAQ:NWS) updated its 2026 US housing forecast, now expecting existing-home prices to rise just 1.2%, below anticipated 3.4% inflation, implying real price declines. The outlook keeps average mortgage rates at 6.3% and trims 2026 existing-home sales to 4.10 million, still 1.0% above 2025.

Typical monthly mortgage payments are projected 1.9% lower than 2025, while rents are forecast to fall 1.2%. Homeownership is expected at 65.1%, single-family housing starts at 0.96 million (+2.0%), and for-sale inventory to grow 3.6%. Rising off-market listings are highlighted as a risk for buyers and sellers.

Positive

• Typical 2026 monthly mortgage payment projected to be 1.9% lower than 2025
• Existing-home sales forecast to rise 1.0% year-over-year to 4.10 million in 2026
• Homeownership rate outlook raised to 65.1% for 2026, above the 64.2% 2013-2019 average
• Rent growth forecast at -1.2% in 2026, implying lower average rents for tenants

Negative

• 2026 existing-home price growth cut to 1.2%, below expected 3.4% inflation
• Existing-home sales forecast trimmed from 4.13 million to 4.10 million for 2026
• Single-family housing starts outlook reduced to 0.96 million, up 2.0% but below prior 1.00 million forecast
• Growth of off-market private listings cited as a risk to price transparency and competition

News Market Reaction – NWS

-1.21%

-1.21% Session close to close

In the Jul 8 session, NWS declined 1.21%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Market Context

Realtor.com’s update highlights cooling 2026 home-price growth of 1.2%, softer rents and a projected...

Analysis

Realtor.com’s update highlights cooling 2026 home-price growth of 1.2%, softer rents and a projected 4.10 million existing-home sales. For NWS, it extends a series of data-driven housing pieces; key risks remain inflation and rate trends that could quickly alter sentiment.

Key Figures

Home price growth: 1.2% Existing-home sales: 4.10 million Monthly payment change: -1.9% +5 more

8 metrics

Home price growth 1.2% Revised 2026 existing-home median price appreciation forecast

Existing-home sales 4.10 million 2026 forecast total, up 1.0% year over year

Monthly payment change -1.9% Typical 2026 buyer’s mortgage payment vs. 2025

Mortgage rate forecast 6.3% 2026 average and year-end mortgage rate projection

Rent growth -1.2% Realtor.com 2026 U.S. rent growth forecast

Homeownership rate 65.1% Revised 2026 homeownership rate forecast

Inflation (May) 4.2% May 2026 inflation reading cited as three-year high

Homebuilding deficit 4 million homes Estimated national homebuilding shortfall

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jul 01 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
Jul 01	Acquisition announcement	Positive	+4.2%	Acquisition of Moving.com and MoveAI to expand digital moving services.
Jul 01	Housing report	Positive	+4.2%	June housing data showing easing prices and rising pending listings.
Jun 30	Policy analysis report	Neutral	-1.7%	Report on federal laws’ role in homeownership and a 4.03M-home supply gap.
Jun 25	Luxury market study	Neutral	-0.7%	Seven-tier mapping of luxury housing thresholds across U.S. markets.
Jun 23	Investor activity report	Neutral	+1.4%	Data on 11.3% investor share of 2025 home purchases and net accumulation.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Recent Realtor.com and housing-related releases have more often seen NWS shares react positively, though a couple of thematic reports drew mild negative moves.

Key Terms

homeownership rate, multifamily starts, vacancy rates, price stability, +1 more

5 terms

homeownership rate financial

"a higher-than-expected first-quarter homeownership rate of 65.3%"

The homeownership rate is the percentage of occupied housing units that are owned by the people living in them rather than rented. It matters to investors because it signals demand for homes, potential mortgage and construction activity, and shifts in household wealth and stability; think of it as a thermometer showing whether more people are choosing to buy or rent, which affects banks, builders, and local economies.

multifamily starts financial

"First-quarter multifamily starts were relatively robust, but they slipped sharply"

The count or value of new construction projects that have begun for residential buildings designed to house multiple separate units, such as apartment complexes or condominiums, within a given period. It matters to investors because it signals upcoming changes in housing supply and construction activity—similar to seeing shovels hit the ground—affecting rental markets, builders, construction suppliers, real estate investors, and local economic activity.

vacancy rates financial

"Vacancy rates, which already registered 7.3% in the first quarter"

Vacancy rates measure the share of rentable space — apartments, offices, or retail units — that is unoccupied during a given period, usually shown as a percentage. Investors watch them because empty units are like empty seats in a restaurant: they reduce rental income, raise the cost per occupied unit, and signal whether demand for the property type is strengthening or weakening, which directly affects cash flow and valuation.

price stability financial

"The Fed's June statement ... bluntly vowed to deliver price stability"

Price stability is when the market price of an asset or broad range of assets stays relatively steady over time, without large, unpredictable swings up or down. It matters to investors because steady prices make it easier to value holdings, plan cash flows, and assess risk—similar to driving on a smooth road rather than a bumpy one, where predictability reduces surprise and helps measure potential gains or losses.

off-market, private listings technical

"growth of private listing networks — homes marketed off the MLS"

A way of buying or selling shares or securities that happens outside regular public stock exchanges, through private negotiations, restricted platforms, or direct deals between parties. Think of it like buying a house through a private sale instead of an open-market listing: transactions can be less visible, have fewer rules, and offer different pricing and liquidity, so they change how easily and transparently investors can trade or value those holdings.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Mortgage Rate Prediction Remains the Same, Yet As Home Prices Fall Behind Inflation the Cost Burden for Buyers is Easing

AUSTIN, Texas, July 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Home price growth is now expected to slow to just 1.2% in 2026, a slower pace than originally forecast and one that fails to keep pace with inflation, meaning home prices are effectively declining in real* terms, according to the Realtor.com^® 2026 Forecast Midyear Update. The cooldown on home price growth comes as a resilient economy has kept mortgage rates high, offsetting rate relief seen earlier in the year.

Realtor.com^® has also trimmed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4.10 million, down from the 4.13 million projected in December, though the number of sales is still expected to grow 1.0% over 2025, as momentum builds in the second half of the year. Rental prices, meanwhile, are on track to fall again in 2026.

"Against a backdrop of both familiar and new challenges, the economy has proved resilient. As a result, the first half of 2026 delivered stability more than momentum in the housing market," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com^®  "The housing market is inching forward as sellers reset expectations, price growth cools, and buyers gain more negotiating power. Looking ahead, we expect momentum to build through the second half of the year as more sidelined buyers and sellers find terms that work for both sides."

Realtor.com^® 2026 Forecast for Key Housing Indicators

	2026 Realtor.com® Forecast REVISED	2026 Realtor.com® Forecast (Dec 2025)	2025 Historical Data	2013-2019 Historical Average
Mortgage Rates	6.3% (avg) 6.3% (year-end)	6.3% (avg) 6.3% (year-end)	6.6% (avg) 6.3% (year-end)	4.0% (avg)
Existing Home Median Price Appreciation (Y/Y)	+1.2 %	+2.2 %	+2.0 %	+6.5 %
Monthly Mortgage Payment (Y/Y)	-1.9 %	-1.3 %	+1.9 %	+7.0 %
Existing Home Sales (Y/Y | Annual Total)	+1.0% 4.10 million	+1.7%* 4.13 million	+0.1% 4.06 million	+2.1% 5.28 million
Existing Home For-Sale Inventory (Y/Y)	+3.6 %	+8.9 %	+15.2 %	-3.6 %
Single-Family Home Housing Starts (Y/Y | Annual)	+2.0% 0.96 million	+3.1%* 1.00 million	-4.3% 0.97 million	0.77 million
Homeownership Rate	65.1 %	64.8 %	65.1 %	64.2 %
Rent Growth	-1.2 %	-1.0 %	-1.5 %	+5.2 %

*Growth rate as published calculated from then-projected 2025 totals, existing home sales of 4.07M and single-family starts of 0.97 million.

Inflation, Middle East Conflict Keep Mortgage Rates Elevated
Mortgage rate projections are unchanged at 6.3% as a fresh round of inflation combined with economic resilience, particularly in the labor market, has offset lower than expected rates in the first few months of the year. Inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2% in May, wiping out that month's wage gains and raising fears of broader price pressure. The Fed's June statement, issued after Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting, bluntly vowed to deliver price stability, lifting short-term rate expectations.

Timing points to geopolitics driving that shift: markets had priced in one to two rate cuts by December before the February strikes on Iran, but now expect one to two hikes instead — a nearly full-point swing resulting from the conflict's effect on oil and inflation. Still, the 10-year yield has held between 4% and 4.5%, keeping mortgage rates in the 6%–6.5% range for the year.

Home Sales Shake Off a Slow Start, Expected to Be Lower Than Predicted
Home sales in 2026 are expected to see modest year-over-year improvement to 4.1 million, marginally lower than in our original forecast. Existing-home sales trailed the year-ago pace in January, February and March, even as mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6% at the end of February. When conflict broke out in the Middle East and rates shot back up, it raised the possibility that buyers would pull back. Instead, sales steadied in April and climbed more convincingly in May. Year to date, existing-home sales are running just 0.2% ahead of last year's pace. Realtor.com^® expects growth to pick up in the second half of 2026, though by less than originally forecast, bringing the annual total to 4.10 million, up 1.0% from 2025.

"Buyers and sellers have shown a lot of staying power this year," said Hale. "This is a market where people are adjusting and showing up rather than giving up. Sellers are meeting the market with more realistic asking prices, which is helping deals get done."

Price Growth to Cool Further Improving Affordability for Buyers
Home price forecast has been revised down to 1.2% in the year, a slower pace of growth than originally expected. Year-to-date prices are up just under 1% over the prior year. Realtor.com^®'s revised forecast reflects slower growth amid more balanced, even buyer-friendly, conditions in many markets. Sellers have adjusted by lowering asking prices upfront rather than cutting them later, so listings are seeing fewer price reductions than last year.

Affordability has improved even more than expected: the typical 2026 buyer's monthly payment is now projected to come in 1.9% below last year's, beyond the 1.3% drop in the original forecast, as the mortgage rate outlook held steady while price growth expectations softened. Combined with stronger income growth, that means a smaller share of a paycheck is needed to cover housing payments. With inflation expected to run at 3.4% for the year, home price growth will not keep pace with inflation. This means that housing costs for buyers are effectively shrinking relative to other household expenses.

Homeownership Rate Improvement
May sales data and a higher-than-expected first-quarter homeownership rate of 65.3% prompted an upward revision to Realtor.com^®'s full-year homeownership outlook. Young households are still navigating a market where affordability is improving only slowly and a record-high share of 18- to 34-year-olds live at home. Yet among those who do strike out on their own, more are choosing homeownership.

Homebuilding Navigates Headwinds as Opportunity Varies Regionally
Lower spring borrowing costs, despite the post-conflict uptick, helped lift existing-home sales activity. New-home sales, by contrast, have softened as the mortgage rate buydowns and price cuts that drew buyers to builders when rates were higher lose their pull and listing prices stabilize. Builders are managing their pipelines accordingly, pulling back on permits and starts most sharply in the South and West, regions that typically drive the bulk of national construction and have more fully recovered from supply shortages. The national homebuilding deficit still stands at an estimated 4 million homes, leaving the greatest opportunity in the Northeast and Midwest, where shortages remain most acute.

Rents Continue to Fall
Renters are expected to see continued relief through the end of 2026 as a relatively robust multifamily construction pipeline adds to supply and pushes rents down further. The Realtor.com^® rent growth forecast now calls for a 1.2% decline in 2026. Vacancy rates, which already registered 7.3% in the first quarter, are expected to end the year roughly in line with the 7.2% long-term average from 2013-2019.

Whether that relief continues largely depends on supply keeping pace with rental demand. Additional rental supply remains vital to sustaining that relief. First-quarter multifamily starts were relatively robust, but they slipped sharply in May. This is likely more noise than signal but is worth watching closely: if supply keeps pace with, or outpaces, demand, rents should continue to soften; if construction slows before demand catches up, the relief could stall or reverse.

Wildcard: The Growth of Off-Market, Private Listings 
A wildcard to watch in the second half of 2026 is the continued growth of private listing networks — homes marketed off the MLS or outside search portals, either temporarily or permanently. So far, there's limited evidence they're affecting sales or prices, but the effect could be showing up in inventory, as homes may be marketed and sold privately before reaching the MLS. For now, the more immediate risk is to home buyers and sellers.

"Keeping listings off the open market changes the equation for everyone involved," said Hale. "Sellers who go private are trading away visibility and competition among buyers, and that competition is usually what pushes a sale price up. For buyers, it means they aren't seeing every home or the whole market, making it harder to know what a fair price even looks like. That's a real cost with real consequences and is something we should be cautious of as the market is starting to find its footing."

Note: Throughout this release, "real" refers to figures adjusted for inflation, as distinct from "nominal" figures, which reflect raw dollar or percentage changes without that adjustment.

About Realtor.com^®
For over 30 years, Realtor.com^® has connected buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 real estate site REALTOR® agents recommend, Realtor.com® delivers consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtorcom-2026-forecast-update-home-price-growth-to-cool-further-trailing-inflation-302819948.html

SOURCE Realtor.com

FAQ

What is Realtor.com's updated 2026 home price growth forecast and what does it mean for NWS investors?

Realtor.com now forecasts 2026 existing-home prices to grow 1.2%, slower than inflation. According to Realtor.com, with inflation expected at 3.4%, home values are effectively declining in real terms, which could influence housing activity and related media and listings demand followed by NWS shareholders.

How many existing-home sales does Realtor.com expect in 2026 and how is this different from its prior forecast?

Realtor.com projects 4.10 million existing-home sales in 2026, up 1.0% from 2025. According to Realtor.com, this is slightly lower than December’s 4.13 million forecast, reflecting softer-than-expected early-year sales but anticipated momentum in the second half of 2026.

What 2026 mortgage rate does Realtor.com forecast and how might this affect homebuyers?

Realtor.com forecasts average and year-end 2026 mortgage rates at 6.3%. According to Realtor.com, steady rates combined with slower price growth should reduce typical monthly payments by 1.9% versus 2025, slightly easing affordability pressures despite mortgage rates remaining well above pre-2020 norms.

How does Realtor.com's July 2026 housing forecast view rental prices and vacancy rates?

Realtor.com expects national rents to decline 1.2% in 2026, continuing recent softness. According to Realtor.com, multifamily construction has lifted supply, pushing vacancy to about 7.3% in Q1, with year-end vacancies expected near the 7.2% 2013-2019 long-term average if building keeps pace.

What does Realtor.com's 2026 forecast say about housing affordability and monthly mortgage payments?

Realtor.com projects the typical 2026 buyer’s monthly mortgage payment will be 1.9% lower than in 2025. According to Realtor.com, unchanged 6.3% rate expectations combined with softer price growth and stronger incomes mean housing should take a slightly smaller share of household paychecks.

What are Realtor.com's expectations for 2026 single-family housing starts and regional construction trends?

Realtor.com forecasts 2026 single-family starts rising 2.0% to 0.96 million units. According to Realtor.com, builders are pulling back most in the South and West, while opportunities remain greatest in the Northeast and Midwest where housing shortages and the estimated 4-million-home national deficit are most acute.

Why does Realtor.com highlight off-market private listings as a 2026 housing market risk?

Realtor.com notes growing private listing networks as a key wildcard for the second half of 2026. According to Realtor.com, keeping homes off open platforms can reduce visibility, competition, and price transparency, potentially disadvantaging both buyers and sellers as the market seeks a new balance.