Realtor.com® 2026 Housing Forecast: Housing Market Remains Balanced as Supply and Demand Find Firmer Footing
Rhea-AI Summary
Realtor.com (NWS) released its 2026 Housing Forecast on Dec. 3, 2025, projecting a cautiously improving U.S. housing market as supply and demand move toward balance.
Key projections: average 30-year mortgage rate 6.3%, existing-home sales 4.13M (+1.7%), median home prices +2.2%, active listings +8.9%, single-family starts 1.00M (+3.1%), and national rent growth -1.0%. Affordability modestly improves as the typical mortgage payment falls to 29.3% of median income.
The report flags economic and policy risks—Fed moves, inflation, labor trends—that could alter the outlook.
Positive
- Average 30-year mortgage rate expected near 6.3%
- Typical monthly mortgage payment share of income falls to 29.3%
- Existing-home sales projected at 4.13 million in 2026 (+1.7%)
- Active listings forecast to rise 8.9% in 2026
Negative
- Real (inflation-adjusted) home prices projected to decline for a second consecutive year
- Home price nominal growth only +2.2%, below expected inflation
- Existing-home sales remain historically low at 4.13 million, below pre-pandemic averages
Insights
Forecast shows modest, broad-based stabilization in 2026 driven by slightly lower rates, rising incomes, and growing inventory.
The report outlines a gradual return toward balance: an average 30-year mortgage rate near
Key dependencies and risks include the path of inflation and Federal Reserve policy, both cited as potential disruptors to rates and affordability. The lock-in effect from low-rate holders and a still-subnormal sales level keep turnover muted despite rising inventory. Watch mortgage rates and consumer price trends through the first half of
A measured improvement in supply-demand balance is forecast; gains are modest and leave the market fragile.
Supply expansion (inventory +
Primary near-term items to monitor include the realized average 30-year rate versus the forecasted
Modest gains in sales, prices, inventory, as well as declining rents, point to more balanced market dynamics, while incomes and easing mortgage rates lift affordability
Realtor.com® forecasts that the average 30-year mortgage rate will hold near
Home prices are expected to rise
"After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®. "Incomes climbing faster than inflation as mortgage rates steady at a lower level create space for affordability to improve. Declining rental prices will continue to give renters more relief from pandemic highs. It's not a dramatic reset, but it's a meaningful shift that moves the market back toward balance."
Realtor.com® forecasts in 2026 buyers and sellers can expect:
- Average 30-year mortgage rates of
6.3% , after higher than expected interest rates in most of 2025, mortgage rates finally relaxed in the second half of the year. We expect mortgage rates to remain roughly in this range throughout 2026 as slowing economic growth and the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening offset risingU.S. government debt and inflationary pressure that's expected to be temporary. - Home prices will grow by
2.2% ; however, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline slightly for a second consecutive year - Rents will drop slightly, by -
1.0% nationally. Rents in the South and West could see larger declines - An
8.9% increase in existing home inventory continuing the trend from the past two years - Single-family new home starts will grow by
3.1% , reaching 1.0 million homes, slight increase from 2025 actuals - Home sales will grow
1.7% year over year to 4.13 million - Affordability improves modestly as the monthly payment to buy the typical home is expected to slip to
29.3% of median income, its first year under the30% affordability threshold since 2022. This also marks the first decline in monthly payments on average across the year since 2020 - Balanced Market: The national housing market will remain in balanced territory in 2026, averaging 4.6 months of supply across the year.
Inventory Recovery Extends Into a Third Year
The number of homes for sale will continue to expand in 2026, with active listings rising
With supply growing faster than sales, the national housing market will average 4.6 months of supply, keeping the market in balanced territory throughout 2026 even as it inches towards the 6 months supply threshold that marks the beginning of a buyer's market. Negotiating power is expected to tilt slightly toward buyers as more homes come online and affordability improves—though younger and first-time buyers will continue to face financial hurdles.
Home Prices Climb, but Not in Real Terms
Home prices are expected to continue to climb in 2026, adding
Affordability Improves Modestly but Meaningfully
Rising incomes, easing mortgage rates, and slower price growth are expected to deliver some of the first notable improvements in overall affordability since 2022. The typical monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home is projected to fall
"The path back toward historic levels of affordability will be gradual, but 2026 takes a solid step in the right direction," Hale said. "For many buyers who have spent years navigating limited options and steep competition, a balanced market with more choices and slightly lower cost burdens can be a game-changer, even if conditions remain far from easy."
Softer Rents, Especially in the South and West
Renters are also poised to see continued relief. Realtor.com® expects rents to decline
The South and West will see the largest benefits from rent softening, driven by significant new construction and already-moderating prices. In high-density, high-cost metros such as
Modest Improvement in Home Sales, but Lock-In Effect Persists
Existing-home sales are projected to rise
Recent data show that four out of five mortgage-holding homeowners have a rate below
Economic and Policy Risks Persist
While the base forecast calls for a modestly improving housing environment, several risks could shift the outlook:
- Policy uncertainty related to fiscal and trade measures could influence inflation dynamics and consumer sentiment.
- Federal Reserve policy remains a major wildcard; tightening or easing too quickly could disrupt progress.
- A softening labor market could slow consumer spending, weakening housing demand.
- Inflation pressures — driven by tariffs, energy costs, or supply chain shifts — could impact both mortgage rates and household budgets.
Although a recession is not the base case, the economy remains in a sensitive period of adjustment. A policy misstep or shift in consumer sentiment could create a temporary setback with implications for housing.
Table 1: Realtor.com® 2026 Forecast
2026 | 2025 Realtor.com® | 2024 | 2013-2019 | |
Mortgage Rates |
| |||
Existing Home | +2.2 % | +2.0 % | +4.5 % | +6.5 % |
Existing Home Sales | + | + | - | + |
Existing Home For- | +8.9 % | +15.2 % | +15.2 % | -3.6 % |
Single-Family Home | + | - | + 1.02 million | 0.77 million |
Homeownership | 64.8 % | 65.1 % | 65.6 % | 64.2 % |
Rent Growth | -1.0 % | -1.4 % | -0.6 % | +5.2 % |
Table 2: Local Market Predictions
Metro | 2026 Sales Growth % | 2026 Price Growth % |
0.6 % | 5.1 % | |
-4.1 % | 7.5 % | |
-4.3 % | 3.5 % | |
-13.6 % | 5.9 % | |
-3.5 % | -0.1 % | |
-4.9 % | 1.3 % | |
-7.0 % | 2.0 % | |
1.8 % | 4.3 % | |
-2.6 % | 8.3 % | |
7.1 % | 2.2 % | |
0.0 % | 6.2 % | |
3.7 % | -0.8 % | |
4.7 % | 2.6 % | |
1.0 % | 6.9 % | |
-0.2 % | 1.9 % | |
-0.8 % | -10.2 % | |
-7.6 % | 3.3 % | |
-2.4 % | 1.1 % | |
0.4 % | 5.6 % | |
-2.3 % | 4.4 % | |
-3.2 % | 3.1 % | |
-2.0 % | 6.3 % | |
-4.2 % | -0.4 % | |
0.3 % | 7.2 % | |
-2.1 % | 4.0 % | |
-5.4 % | 1.8 % | |
-1.3 % | 6.3 % | |
-0.5 % | -3.6 % | |
-2.9 % | -3.4 % | |
-4.7 % | -0.9 % | |
-1.2 % | 4.2 % | |
1.0 % | 2.9 % | |
-7.0 % | 2.8 % | |
0.5 % | 6.3 % | |
2.1 % | 2.8 % | |
6.9 % | 3.7 % | |
-10.9 % | 4.4 % | |
-8.1 % | 3.1 % | |
1.0 % | 4.0 % | |
7.6 % | 9.5 % | |
-0.6 % | 0.4 % | |
-6.4 % | 6.6 % | |
-0.4 % | 4.6 % | |
-6.9 % | -1.4 % | |
1.7 % | 5.4 % | |
-10.8 % | 0.7 % | |
-6.4 % | 3.9 % | |
1.5 % | -0.2 % | |
-2.5 % | 0.6 % | |
3.9 % | 4.6 % | |
1.8 % | 1.8 % | |
5.1 % | 3.5 % | |
2.7 % | 2.2 % | |
3.3 % | 4.6 % | |
-7.7 % | 1.8 % | |
-7.1 % | 1.1 % | |
3.5 % | 7.0 % | |
3.8 % | 1.2 % | |
-3.5 % | 0.5 % | |
2.3 % | 7.7 % | |
-4.4 % | 5.8 % | |
-4.4 % | 5.2 % | |
0.8 % | -8.9 % | |
-6.1 % | 1.1 % | |
3.1 % | -0.4 % | |
-4.7 % | -1.6 % | |
2.5 % | 0.9 % | |
1.6 % | -1.0 % | |
-5.1 % | 5.7 % | |
4.9 % | -2.3 % | |
4.0 % | 5.7 % | |
4.7 % | 4.6 % | |
-2.5 % | 0.2 % | |
7.1 % | 4.1 % | |
-4.4 % | -3.7 % | |
3.6 % | 6.9 % | |
-1.4 % | 1.5 % | |
5.3 % | 10.3 % | |
1.5 % | -3.3 % | |
2.2 % | 3.1 % | |
4.2 % | 1.7 % | |
0.4 % | 0.2 % | |
2.3 % | 0.7 % | |
2.5 % | -2.5 % | |
0.0 % | 0.7 % | |
-6.2 % | 10.9 % | |
4.2 % | -0.3 % | |
8.1 % | -3.5 % | |
-5.7 % | -4.1 % | |
-5.7 % | 12.4 % | |
-3.1 % | -3.6 % | |
-1.2 % | 13.1 % | |
-1.5 % | -0.5 % | |
2.2 % | 2.3 % | |
2.3 % | 2.6 % | |
-3.6 % | 6.6 % | |
-1.3 % | 5.1 % | |
-3.2 % | 3.1 % | |
-0.2 % | 7.7 % | |
12.6 % | 2.4 % |
Methodology
Realtor.com's model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total home sales increase (total 2026 existing-home sales vs. 2025) and annual median home sales price increase (2026 median existing-home sales price vs. 2025).
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.
Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com
View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/realtorcom-2026-housing-forecast-housing-market-remains-balanced-as-supply-and-demand-find-firmer-footing-302630780.html
SOURCE Realtor.com
FAQ
What mortgage rate does Realtor.com forecast for 2026 and how does it affect buyers for NWS?
How much does Realtor.com expect U.S. home prices to change in 2026 for NWS?
What does Realtor.com forecast for existing-home sales in 2026 (NWS)?
How will inventory trends change in 2026 according to Realtor.com and what does that mean for NWS investors?
What does Realtor.com predict for rents in 2026 and which regions are most affected (NWS)?
Does Realtor.com expect affordability to improve in 2026 for NWS, and by how much?
