Declining Rents Signal Relief is on the Way for Inflation

Rhea-AI Summary

According to Realtor.com's May Rent Report, U.S. rental market shows signs of cooling with median asking rents at $1,705, marking a significant slowdown that could help ease inflation pressures. While rents remain 19.6% higher than 2019 levels, this increase falls below the overall inflation rate of 25.6%. Only nine major metros, including Pittsburgh (43.2%), Tampa (41.6%), and Miami (36.2%), saw rent growth outpacing inflation since 2019. San Francisco experienced the most significant decline (-3.2%) followed by Minneapolis (3.9%). Federal policy changes, including student visa restrictions and employment shifts, are creating divergent rental trends across metros. The market has seen 22 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, with current rents $54 below the August 2022 peak.

Positive

• Median rents have shown 22 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, indicating market cooling
• Current median rent of $1,705 is $54 below the August 2022 peak
• Rent growth (19.6%) has remained below overall inflation (25.6%) since 2019
• Cooling rents expected to help ease overall inflation pressure in coming months

Negative

• Nine major metros still show rent growth outpacing inflation since 2019
• Doubled steel and aluminum tariffs (50%) are increasing construction costs, potentially affecting future rental affordability
• Most metros still maintain significantly higher rent levels compared to pre-pandemic
• Federal policy changes and visa restrictions may disrupt rental markets in certain regions

Insights

Real Estate Economist

Cooling rental market signals coming relief for inflation as most metros' rent growth lags overall inflation, benefiting NWSA's real estate platforms.

The persistent cooling in the rental market presents a significant positive indicator for inflation moderation in the coming months. With the median rent now at $1,705 after 22 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, we're witnessing a sustained trend rather than a temporary fluctuation. The current rent level sits $54 below its August 2022 peak, confirming the market's continued normalization.

What's particularly telling is that rental growth (19.6% since 2019) has substantially underperformed overall inflation (25.6%) over the past six years. This divergence between shelter costs and broader inflation is crucial because shelter comprises nearly one-third of the Consumer Price Index calculation. As these lower market-rate rents gradually flow into official inflation metrics over the coming months, we should see meaningful downward pressure on headline inflation numbers.

The geographic disparity in rental trends reveals important economic shifts. The nine metros where rents outpaced inflation (led by Pittsburgh at 43.2% and Tampa at 41.6%) contrast sharply with cooling markets like San Francisco (down 3.2% since 2019) and Minneapolis (up just 3.9%). This reflects fundamental regional economic realignments rather than a uniform national trend.

For News Corp (NWSA), which owns Realtor.com, this data provides valuable content that enhances their platform's authority in the real estate information space. The comprehensive rental data across 50 metros strengthens Realtor.com's position as an essential resource for consumers, potentially increasing site traffic and engagement. As rental markets stabilize and inflation potentially eases, this could also boost overall consumer confidence and activity in the real estate market, indirectly benefiting NWSA's digital real estate services segment.

• As rents have cooled, most major U.S. metros saw median rents pace below national inflation in the last 6 years:
  • San Francisco (-3.2%), Minneapolis, Minn. (3.9%), Oklahoma City, Okla. (7.7%), Seattle (7.9%), Denver (8.9%) and San Jose, Calif. (8.9%) saw the least growth in median rent prices since May 2019
• Federal policy shifts such as tariffs, employment reductions and international student visas are driving divergent rental trends across U.S. metros
• Median asking rents in the 50 largest metros registered at $1,705, up by $5 from last month and $54 lower than its August 2022 peak

AUSTIN, Texas, June 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- While U.S. rents generally remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, their growth over the past six years has lagged behind both overall inflation and home prices, according to the Realtor.com^® May Rent Report. As of May 2025, the median rent was $1,705, up 19.6% compared to the same time in 2019—below the 25.6% rise in consumer prices. With market-based rents continuing to cool, Americans can expect further relief in shelter inflation in the months ahead.

"Falling median asking rents are an encouraging sign that relief is on the way for shelter inflation, which has been one of the largest contributors to elevated consumer prices," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com^®. "Because shelter costs tend to lag behind real-time market trends, the sustained slowdown in rent growth is likely to show up in the Consumer Price Index in the months ahead, helping to ease overall inflation pressure. While this is an encouraging sign, for most major U.S. metros rents are still considerably higher than before the start of the pandemic, and despite 22 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, the U.S. median rent was just $54 less than the peak seen in August 2022."

Comparing rent growth at the metro level to U.S. inflation provides important context for affordability, revealing where local housing costs are rising faster than residents' overall cost of living¹. There are just nine metro areas where rent growth has outpaced inflation since 2019: Indianapolis; Jacksonville, Fla.; Kansas City, Mo.; Miami; New York; Pittsburgh; Sacramento, Calif.; St. Louis; and Tampa, Florida.

Metros Where Rent Is Outpacing Overall Inflation Over the Past Six Years

Metro	Median Asking Rent (0-2 bedrooms)	Six Year Change
Pittsburgh, Penn.	$1,466	43.2 %
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	$1,736	41.6 %
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.	$2,350	36.2 %
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, Ind.	$1,295	32.1 %
Kansas City, Mo.-Kansas	$1,394	31.3 %
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif.	$1,878	29.2 %
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.	$2,902	28.7 %
Jacksonville, Fla.	$1,512	27.2 %
St. Louis, Mo. - Ill.	$1,338	26.8 %

¹ For simplicity, we used the national 25.6% rate of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces a metro-level CPI for some, but not all, of the markets in this report. At a Census Division level, differences in CPI over the 6 years ending in May 2025 were minor, ranging from a high of 27.6% in the Mountain division of the West region, to a low of 22.0% in the New England division of the Northeast region.

Most major U.S. metros saw median rents pace below inflation. San Francisco, where rents have declined 3.2% since 2019, saw the biggest difference compared to inflation, followed by Minneapolis, Minn. (3.9%), Oklahoma City(7.7%), Seattle (7.9%), Denver (8.9%) and San Jose, Calif. (8.9%).

National Rents by Unit Size

Unit Size	Median Rent	Rent YoY	Consecutive Months of Decline	Total Decline from Peak	Rent Change - 6 Years
Overall	$1,705	-1.7 %	22	-3.2 %	19.6 %
Studio	$1,418	-1.9 %	21	-4.8 %	15.7 %
1-Bedroom	$1,582	-2.3 %	24	-4.6 %	18.0 %
2-Bedroom	$1,896	-1.7 %	24	-3.3 %	21.3 %

Policy Shifts Drive Diverging Rental Trends Across U.S. Metros

Recent changes in federal policy are reshaping rental markets across the country. New restrictions on international student visas, including enrollment suspensions at schools like Harvard and a pause on new interviews are expected to reduce rental demand in international student hubs such as San Jose, Calif., Miami, Boston, Seattle and Orlando, Fla. These metros have already shown signs of cooling, with year-over-year rent declines in four of the five markets with the highest shares of international students: Miami (-2.7%), Seattle (-2.3%), Orlando, Fla. (-1.1%), and Boston (-0.4%).

Rental markets tied to federal employment are also feeling the impact of workforce changes. In cities like Washington, D.C. (1.3%), and Baltimore (0.3%), rents edged up in May 2025, while other federal hubs such as San Diego (-5.9%), Virginia Beach, Va. (-2.5%) and Oklahoma City, (-1.0%) saw rent declines. These mixed results reflect the push-pull effects of federal job cuts and return-to-office mandates, underscoring the complex role government employment plays in local housing demand.

Meanwhile, recent tariff hikes are expected to put upward pressure on future rents. Steel and aluminum tariffs, now doubled to 50%, are driving up construction costs, especially in metros like Milwaukee, Memphis, Tenn., and Columbus, Ohio, which saw a boom in multifamily permits in 2024. As of May 2025, four of these key metros saw year-over-year rent declines: Milwaukee (-0.5%), Oklahoma City (-1.0%), Cleveland (-1.9%) and Memphis, Tenn. (-3.3%). Columbus, Ohio, saw a modest 0.2% growth.  As developers face higher material costs and potential project slowdowns, affordability may come under pressure in the months ahead.

Top 50 Markets Rental Trends (Alphabetical Order)

Metro	Median Asking Rent (0-2 bedrooms)	YOY	Six Year Change
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	$1,576	-3.5 %	11.1 %
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX	$1,463	-4.4 %	19.4 %
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	$1,815	0.3 %	16.2 %
Birmingham, AL	$1,187	-4.4 %	16.1 %
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH	$2,996	-0.4 %	17.1 %
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY	NA	NA	NA
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	$1,526	-0.8 %	18.9 %
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN	$1,793	-1.5 %	15.1 %
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	$1,298	-4.2 %	17.1 %
Cleveland, OH	$1,211	-1.9 %	25.0 %
Columbus, OH	$1,205	0.2 %	22.1 %
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	$1,463	-1.9 %	17.2 %
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO	$1,782	-7.5 %	8.9 %
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	$1,301	1.4 %	14.3 %
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT	NA	NA	NA
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX	$1,356	-1.7 %	10.1 %
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN	$1,295	-2.9 %	32.1 %
Jacksonville, FL	$1,512	-3.1 %	27.2 %
Kansas City, MO-KS	$1,394	4.2 %	31.3 %
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV	$1,467	-2.5 %	24.1 %
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	$2,711	-3.1 %	14.2 %
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	$1,253	-2.7 %	22.4 %
Memphis, TN-MS-AR	$1,177	-3.3 %	17.2 %
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL	$2,350	-2.7 %	36.2 %
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI	$1,666	-0.5 %	23.5 %
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	$1,503	-2.1 %	3.9 %
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN	$1,533	-2.4 %	23.7 %
New Orleans-Metairie, LA	NA	NA	NA
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ	$2,902	2.5 %	28.7 %
Oklahoma City, OK	$985	-1.0 %	7.7 %
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	$1,693	-1.1 %	23.0 %
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	$1,766	-1.7 %	10.4 %
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ	$1,494	-4.2 %	23.9 %
Pittsburgh, PA	$1,466	-1.7 %	43.2 %
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	$1,674	-3.7 %	17.6 %
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	NA	NA	NA
Raleigh-Cary, NC	$1,493	-3.7 %	25.7 %
Richmond, VA	$1,510	-0.5 %	25.7 %
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	$2,049	-3.4 %	17.8 %
Rochester, NY	NA	NA	NA
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA	$1,878	-2.2 %	29.2 %
St. Louis, MO-IL	$1,338	-0.4 %	26.8 %
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	$1,235	-2.2 %	21.9 %
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA	$2,667	-5.9 %	17.4 %
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA	$2,723	-2.4 %	-3.2 %
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	$3,384	0.6 %	8.9 %
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	$1,981	-2.3 %	7.9 %
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	$1,736	-0.3 %	41.6 %
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC	$1,496	-2.5 %	21.7 %
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	$2,320	1.3 %	17.6 %

Methodology
Rental data as of May 2025 for studio, 1-bedroom, or 2-bedroom units advertised as for-rent on Realtor.com®. Rental units include apartments as well as private rentals (condos, townhomes, single-family homes). We use rental sources that reliably report data each month within the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Realtor.com began publishing regular monthly rental trends reports in October 2020 with data history stretching back to March 2019.

About Realtor.com^®
Realtor.com^® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com^® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com

 

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SOURCE Realtor.com

FAQ

What is the current median asking rent in the US as of May 2025?

The current median asking rent in the US is $1,705, which is $5 up from last month and $54 lower than its August 2022 peak.

Which US cities have seen the highest rent increases since 2019?

Pittsburgh (43.2%), Tampa (41.6%), and Miami (36.2%) have seen the highest rent increases since 2019, significantly outpacing national inflation.

How much have rents increased compared to inflation since 2019?

Rents have increased 19.6% since 2019, which is below the overall inflation rate of 25.6% during the same period.

Which US cities have seen the lowest rent growth since 2019?

San Francisco (-3.2%) saw the lowest growth, followed by Minneapolis (3.9%), Oklahoma City (7.7%), Seattle (7.9%), Denver (8.9%), and San Jose (8.9%).

How many consecutive months has the US seen year-over-year rent declines?

The US has experienced 22 consecutive months of year-over-year rent declines as of May 2025.