ONE Gas Issues 2026 Financial Guidance

Rhea-AI Summary

ONE Gas (NYSE: OGS) issued 2026 financial guidance and updated five-year targets on Dec. 1, 2025. The company expects 2026 net income $294M–$302M and EPS $4.65–$4.77 (midpoint EPS $4.71). Capital investments for 2026 are forecast at ~$800M (including asset removal), with ~$230M for new-customer extensions and an anticipated average rate base of $6.3B.

For 2026–2030, ONE Gas expects annual capital spending of $800M–$900M, average rate base growth of 7%–9% per year, net income growth of 7%–9% annually, and long-term diluted EPS growth of 5%–7% (raised from 4%–6%). The company estimates $1.3B of long-term financing needs through 2030 with ~30% equity and maintains an expected dividend growth rate of 1%–2% through 2030.

Positive

• Long-term diluted EPS growth raised to 5%–7% (from 4%–6%)
• 2026 capital investments of approximately $800M to support system integrity
• Five-year capital plan of $800M–$900M annually supporting 7%–9% rate base growth

Negative

• 2026 guidance is partially offset by higher operating expenses and increased depreciation
• Company estimates $1.3B financing needs through 2026–2030, requiring ~30% equity

Insights

Utility financial analyst

ONE Gas raised long‑term EPS growth and provided concrete 2026 guidance anchored by elevated capital spending.

The company projects 2026 net income of $294 million to $302 million and diluted EPS of $4.65 to $4.77, with midpoints of $298 million and $4.71. Management attributes the guidance to new rates and customer growth, partially offset by higher operating and depreciation expenses tied to planned capital investments of about $800 million in 2026 and an anticipated average rate base near $6.3 billion.

Key dependencies and risks include regulatory recovery of costs, execution of the $800M–$900M annual capex plan through 2030, and access to capital given estimated net long‑term financing needs of roughly $1.3 billion for 2026–2030 with ~30% equity. The company discloses outstanding forward sale agreements covering ~2.9 million shares at an average price of about $78 per share and expects to settle ~$205 million at year‑end 2025.

Watch for regulatory approvals and ratemaking outcomes that affect recoverability and allowed returns, the quarterly cadence of customer growth vs. operating cost trends, and updates on the planned capex cadence and financings over the next 12–24 months. The raised long‑term diluted EPS growth range to 5% to 7% is a constructive signal but does not on its own guarantee improved returns without confirmed regulatory recovery and disciplined execution.

TULSA, Okla., Dec. 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- ONE Gas, Inc. (NYSE: OGS) today issued financial guidance for 2026 and updated its five-year growth rates, including raising its long-term diluted earnings per share growth rate to 5% to 7%, from 4% to 6% previously.

"As we enter 2026, we are fully leveraging opportunities to support customer growth and invest in our system, all while maintaining our commitments to safety and customer affordability," said Robert S. McAnnally, president and chief executive officer. "We remain focused on meeting evolving customer needs and advancing investments that position us for ongoing, sustainable growth."

2026 FINANCIAL GUIDANCE

ONE Gas (the "Company") expects 2026 net income to be in the range of $294 million to $302 million, with earnings per diluted share of $4.65 to $4.77. The midpoints of 2026 guidance are net income of $298 million and earnings per diluted share of $4.71.

The Company's 2026 earnings guidance includes the benefit of new rates and customer growth, partially offset by higher operating expenses and depreciation expense from capital investments.

Capital investments, including asset removal costs, are expected to be approximately $800 million in 2026, primarily targeted for system integrity and replacement projects. Capital investments for extensions to new customers are expected to be approximately $230 million, largely due to continued growth opportunities in Texas and Oklahoma. The anticipated average rate base for 2026 is $6.3 billion.

FIVE-YEAR FINANCIAL GROWTH RATES

For the five years ending 2030, capital investments, including asset removal costs, are expected to be in the range of $800 million to $900 million per year, or approximately $4.3 billion for the five-year period, including growth capital of approximately $1.2 billion. Capital expenditures support estimated average rate base growth of 7% to 9% per year through 2030.

Annual net income and diluted earnings per share are expected to increase by an average of 7% to 9% and 5% to 7%, respectively, over the long term.

Operating costs over the five-year period are expected to increase an average of approximately 3% to 4% per year, compared to the 4% average annual increase indicated in the 2025 financial guidance.

The Company estimates total net long-term financing needs for the period 2026 through 2030 of approximately $1.3 billion, of which approximately 30% is expected to be equity.

The Company has outstanding forward sale agreements covering approximately 2.9 million shares of its common stock at an average price of approximately $78 per share. Had all forward shares been settled at the end of the third quarter, net proceeds would have been approximately $226 million. The Company expects to settle approximately $205 million of its outstanding equity under forward sale agreements at year-end 2025 and roll forward the remaining balance for settlement at year-end 2026.

Consistent with last year's guidance, the Company expects to achieve an average annual dividend growth rate of 1% to 2% through 2030, subject to the board of directors' approval.

CONFERENCE CALL, WEBCAST AND INVESTOR PRESENTATION

The ONE Gas executive management team will conduct a conference call on Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025, at 8 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (7 a.m. Central Standard Time). The call also will be carried live on the ONE Gas website.

To participate in the telephone conference call, dial 833-470-1428, passcode 582279, or log on to www.onegas.com/investors and select Events and Presentations.

If you are unable to participate in the conference call or the webcast, a replay will be available on the ONE Gas website, www.onegas.com, for 30 days. A recording will be available by phone for seven days. The playback call may be accessed at 866-813-9403, passcode 732389.

Additional information can be found in the 2026 Financial Guidance investor presentation on the ONE Gas website at https://www.onegas.com/investors/financials-and-filings/guidance.

Guidance estimates may be impacted by the variables in the forward-looking statements listed below.

ONE Gas, Inc. (NYSE: OGS) is a 100% regulated natural gas utility, and trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "OGS." ONE Gas is included in the S&P MidCap 400 Index and is one of the largest natural gas utilities in the United States.

Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, ONE Gas provides a reliable and affordable energy choice to more than 2.3 million customers in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Its divisions include Kansas Gas Service, the largest natural gas distributor in Kansas; Oklahoma Natural Gas, the largest in Oklahoma; and Texas Gas Service, the third largest in Texas, in terms of customers.

For more information and the latest news about ONE Gas, visit onegas.com and follow its social channels: @ONEGas, Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Some of the statements contained and incorporated in this news release are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. The forward-looking statements relate to our anticipated financial performance, liquidity, management's plans and objectives for our future operations, our business prospects, the outcome of regulatory and legal proceedings, market conditions and other matters. We make these forward-looking statements in reliance on the safe harbor protections provided under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The following discussion is intended to identify important factors that could cause future outcomes to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements include the items identified in the preceding paragraph, the information concerning possible or assumed future results of our operations and other statements contained or incorporated in this news release identified by words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "plan," "believe," "should," "goal," "forecast," "guidance," "could," "may," "continue," "might," "potential," "scheduled," "likely," and other words and terms of similar meaning.

One should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which are applicable only as of the date of this news release. Known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. Those factors may affect our operations, costs, liquidity, markets, products, services and prices. In addition to any assumptions and other factors referred to specifically in connection with the forward-looking statements, factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forward-looking statement include, among others, the following:

• our ability to recover costs, income taxes and amounts equivalent to the cost of property, plant and equipment, regulatory assets and our allowed rate of return in our regulated rates or other recovery mechanisms;
• cyber-attacks, which, according to experts, continue to increase in volume and sophistication, or breaches of technology systems that could disrupt our operations or result in the loss or exposure of confidential or sensitive customer, employee, vendor, counterparty, or Company information; further, increased remote working arrangements have required enhancements and modifications to our information technology infrastructure (e.g. Internet, Virtual Private Network, remote collaboration systems, etc.), and any failures of the technologies, including third-party service providers, that facilitate working remotely could limit our ability to conduct ordinary operations or expose us to increased risk or effect of an attack;
• our ability to manage our operations and maintenance costs;
• changes in regulation of natural gas distribution services, particularly those in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas;
• the economic climate and, particularly, its effect on the natural gas requirements of our residential and commercial customers;
• the length and severity of a pandemic or other health crisis which could significantly disrupt or prevent us from operating our business in the ordinary course for an extended period;
• competition from alternative forms of energy, including, but not limited to, electricity, solar power, wind power, geothermal energy and biofuels;
• adverse weather conditions and variations in weather, including seasonal effects on demand and/or supply, the occurrence of severe storms in the territories in which we operate, and climate change, and the related effects on supply, demand, and costs;
• indebtedness could make us more vulnerable to general adverse economic and industry conditions, limit our ability to borrow additional funds and/or place us at competitive disadvantage compared with competitors;
• our ability to secure reliable, competitively priced and flexible natural gas transportation and supply, including decisions by natural gas producers to reduce production or shut-in producing natural gas wells and expiration of existing supply and transportation and storage arrangements that are not replaced with contracts with similar terms and pricing;
• our ability to complete necessary or desirable expansion or infrastructure development projects, which may delay or prevent us from serving our customers or expanding our business;
• operational and mechanical hazards or interruptions;
• adverse labor relations;
• the effectiveness of our strategies to reduce earnings lag, revenue protection strategies and risk mitigation strategies, which may be affected by risks beyond our control such as commodity price volatility, counterparty performance or creditworthiness and interest rate risk;
• the capital-intensive nature of our business, and the availability of and access to, in general, funds to meet our debt obligations prior to or when they become due and to fund our operations and capital expenditures, either through (i) cash on hand, (ii) operating cash flow, or (iii) access to the capital markets and other sources of liquidity;
• our ability to obtain capital on commercially reasonable terms, or on terms acceptable to us, or at all;
• limitations on our operating flexibility, earnings and cash flows due to restrictions in our financing arrangements;
• cross-default provisions in our borrowing arrangements, which may lead to our inability to satisfy all of our outstanding obligations in the event of a default on our part;
• changes in the financial markets during the periods covered by the forward-looking statements, particularly those affecting the availability of capital and our ability to refinance existing debt and fund investments and acquisitions to execute our business strategy;
• actions of rating agencies, including the ratings of debt, general corporate ratings and changes in the rating agencies' ratings criteria;
• changes in inflation and interest rates;
• our ability to recover the costs of natural gas purchased for our customers and any related financing required to support our purchase of natural gas supply;
• impact of potential impairment charges;
• volatility and changes in markets for natural gas and our ability to secure additional and sufficient liquidity on reasonable commercial terms to cover costs associated with such volatility;
• possible loss of local distribution company franchises or other adverse effects caused by the actions of municipalities;
• payment and performance by counterparties and customers as contracted and when due, including our counterparties maintaining ordinary course terms of supply and payments;
• changes in existing or the addition of new environmental, safety, tax and other laws to which we and our subsidiaries are subject, including those that may require significant expenditures, significant increases in operating costs or, in the case of noncompliance, substantial fines or penalties;
• the effectiveness of our risk-management policies and procedures, and employees violating our risk-management policies;
• the uncertainty of estimates, including accruals and costs of environmental remediation;
• advances in technology, including technologies that increase efficiency or that improve electricity's competitive position relative to natural gas;
• population growth rates and changes in the demographic patterns of the markets we serve, and economic conditions in these areas' housing markets;
• acts of nature and the potential effects of threatened or actual terrorism and war, including recent events in Europe and the Middle East;
• the sufficiency of insurance coverage to cover losses;
• the effects of our strategies to reduce tax payments;
• changes in accounting standards;
• changes in corporate governance standards;
• existence of material weaknesses in our internal controls;
• our ability to comply with all covenants in our indentures and the ONE Gas Credit Agreement, a violation of which, if not cured in a timely manner, could trigger a default of our obligations;
• our ability to attract and retain talented employees, management and directors, and shortage of skilled-labor;
• unexpected increases in the costs of providing health care benefits, along with pension and postemployment health care benefits, as well as declines in the discount rates on, declines in the market value of the debt and equity securities of, and increases in funding requirements for, our defined benefit plans; and
• our ability to successfully complete merger, acquisition or divestiture plans, regulatory or other limitations imposed as a result of a merger, acquisition or divestiture, and the success of the business following a merger, acquisition or divestiture.

These factors are not necessarily all of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any of our forward-looking statements. Other factors could also have material adverse effects on our future results. These and other risks are described in greater detail in Part 1, Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our Annual Report. All forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these factors. Other than as required under securities laws, we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, subsequent events or change in circumstances, expectations or otherwise.

Analyst Contact:	Erin Dailey 918-947-7411
Media Contact:	Leah Harper 918-947-7123

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SOURCE ONE Gas, Inc.

FAQ

What is ONE Gas's 2026 EPS guidance (NYSE: OGS)?

ONE Gas expects EPS $4.65–$4.77 for 2026 (midpoint $4.71).

How much does ONE Gas plan to spend on capital investments in 2026 (OGS)?

ONE Gas forecasts ~$800M in 2026 capital investments, including ~$230M for new-customer extensions.

What long-term EPS growth did ONE Gas (OGS) update on Dec. 1, 2025?

The company raised long-term diluted EPS growth to 5%–7% from 4%–6%.

What is ONE Gas's expected average rate base for 2026 (OGS)?

The anticipated average rate base for 2026 is approximately $6.3 billion.

How much financing does ONE Gas expect to need through 2026–2030 (OGS)?

ONE Gas estimates total net long-term financing needs of about $1.3 billion, with ~30% expected to be equity.

Will ONE Gas (OGS) raise its dividend after the 2026 guidance?

The company expects an average annual dividend growth rate of 1%–2% through 2030, subject to board approval.