PayPal Shares Plunge to 12-Month Low After Q4 Miss; Revenue and EPS Both Fall Short of Estimates

Rhea-AI Summary

PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) shares hit a 12-month low after a weak Q4 2025 report and cautious 2026 guidance. Q4 revenue was $8.68 billion versus $8.80 billion consensus, a $120 million (1.4%) shortfall; adjusted EPS was $1.23, missing estimates.

Shares fell about 18–19% on February 3 to the $42–$43 range from a pre-announcement ~$55.51, with volume three to four times the 30-day average. Analysts cut targets; the company forecast first-quarter low single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EPS down mid-single digits. Levi & Korsinsky is investigating and is contacting affected investors.

Positive

• None.

Negative

• Share price plunged 18–19% on February 3
• Trading volume spiked 3–4× the 30‑day average
• Q4 revenue missed by $120 million (1.4%); adjusted EPS $1.23
• 2026 guidance: first-quarter low single-digit revenue growth; adj EPS down mid-single digits

News Market Reaction – PYPL

+0.80%

1 alert

+0.80% News Effect

On the day this news was published, PYPL gained 0.80%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Consensus revenue estimate: $8.80B Reported revenue: $8.68B Revenue shortfall: $120M +5 more

8 metrics

Consensus revenue estimate $8.80B Analyst expectation for Q4 2025 revenue

Reported revenue $8.68B Q4 2025 revenue vs $8.80B consensus

Revenue shortfall $120M Q4 2025 revenue miss vs consensus

Consensus adjusted EPS range $1.30–$1.33 Analyst expectation for Q4 2025 adjusted EPS

Reported adjusted EPS $1.23 Q4 2025 adjusted EPS vs $1.30–$1.33 expected

Intraday earnings reaction 18–19% decline February 3 trading after Q4 2025 earnings miss

Pre-announcement price $55.51 Share price before February 3 earnings release

2026 EPS outlook Down mid-single digits Management’s 2026 adjusted EPS guidance vs Street expectations

Market Reality Check

Price: $47.64 Vol: Volume 22,079,054 vs 20-d...

low vol

$47.64 Last Close

Volume Volume 22,079,054 vs 20-day average 38,771,037 (about 0.57x recent activity). low

Technical Shares at 46.38, well below 200-day MA of 64.71 and 41.66% under 52-week high 79.5.

Peers on Argus

PYPL gained 1.64% while key credit/fintech peers like SOFI (+3.39%), SYF (+2.23%...

PYPL gained 1.64% while key credit/fintech peers like SOFI (+3.39%), SYF (+2.23%), COF (+2.56%), ALLY (+3.13%) and AXP (+2.57%) also traded higher. With no peers in the momentum scanner and a law-firm investigation headline focused on PYPL’s prior earnings miss, today’s setup looks stock-specific rather than a coordinated sector move.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Mar 03 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Mar 03	Blockchain partnership	Positive	+1.6%	TCS Blockchain and PYUSD partnership targeting $1B annual freight invoice flows.
Feb 25	Disclosure investigation	Negative	+0.6%	Investigation into performance metric disclosures after a prior 17% stock decline.
Feb 18	Earnings & CEO change	Negative	+1.6%	Weak Q4 results plus CEO transition to Enrique Lores and analyst downgrade.
Feb 12	AI travel partnership	Positive	-3.4%	Sabre, PayPal, Mindtrip alliance for Q2 2026 AI travel experience launch.
Feb 11	Weak 2026 outlook	Negative	-2.5%	Disappointing 2026 guidance amid competitive pressures and macro headwinds.

Pattern Detected

Recent news flow mixes strategic partnerships with investigations and weak guidance, with price often moving opposite intuitive sentiment on individual headlines.

Recent Company History

Over the last month, PYPL has faced several pressure points: disappointing Q4 2025 results, a CEO transition, and a weak 2026 outlook, alongside regulatory-style investigations into disclosures. At the same time, it announced partnerships such as a trucking/transportation on‑chain settlement initiative and a travel-focused AI collaboration. Today’s litigation-focused article revisits the Q4 miss-driven selloff and fits into this broader narrative of scrutiny following underwhelming financial performance and guidance.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement revisits PayPal’s Q4 2025 earnings miss, where revenue of $8.68B and adjusted EPS ...

Analysis

This announcement revisits PayPal’s Q4 2025 earnings miss, where revenue of $8.68B and adjusted EPS of $1.23 fell short of consensus and triggered an 18–19% drop from about $55.51. It also highlights below‑Street 2026 guidance and subsequent legal scrutiny. Investors may focus on how these issues interact with recent strategic partnerships and insider activity, and on whether future results show improvement relative to the prior miss and outlook.

Key Terms

adjusted earnings per share, consensus analyst estimate, restricted stock units, form 4, +2 more

6 terms

adjusted earnings per share financial

"consensus analyst estimate ... called for revenue of $8.80 billion and adjusted earnings per share"

Adjusted Earnings Per Share shows how much profit a company makes for each share of stock, but it removes unusual or one-time items like big expenses or gains. This helps investors see the company's true ongoing performance, making it easier to compare how well different companies are doing over time.

consensus analyst estimate financial

"According to data compiled ... the consensus analyst estimate heading into the February 3 earnings report"

A consensus analyst estimate is the average or typical forecast compiled from several professional analysts about a company’s future financial results—like sales, profit, or earnings per share. Investors use it as a yardstick to judge a company’s performance: beating the consensus is often seen as good news and can lift a stock, while missing it may trigger sell-offs, much like a weather forecast consensus shaping plans for the day.

restricted stock units financial

"he acquired 18,407 shares of common stock through the exercise of restricted stock units"

Restricted stock units are a type of company reward where employees are promised shares of stock, but they only fully own these shares after meeting certain conditions, like staying with the company for a set time. They matter because they can become valuable assets and are often used to motivate employees to help the company succeed.

form 4 regulatory

"title": "[Form 4] PayPal Holdings, Inc. Insider Trading Activity""

Form 4 is a official document that company insiders, such as executives or major shareholders, file with regulators whenever they buy or sell company shares. It provides transparency about how those with inside knowledge are trading, helping investors see if insiders are confident in the company's prospects or may be selling for personal reasons. This information can influence investor decisions by revealing insiders' perspectives on the company's value.

form 144 regulatory

"title": "[144] PayPal Holdings, Inc. SEC Filing""

Form 144 is a document that investors must file with the government when they plan to sell a large number of shares of a company's stock. It helps ensure transparency so everyone knows how many shares are being sold and when, which can impact the stock's price.

10b5-1 plan regulatory

"reported a proposed sale of 49,114.37 common shares under a 10b5-1 plan."

A 10b5-1 plan is a pre-arranged strategy that allows company insiders to buy or sell their shares at predetermined times and prices, even while they are aware of confidential information. It acts like a scheduled appointment for trading, helping ensure transactions happen transparently and legally, which can reassure investors that trades are not based on insider knowledge.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

NASDAQ: PYPL

NEW YORK, March 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Levi & Korsinsky, LLP is investigating PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) following the company's fourth quarter 2025 earnings miss that sent shares tumbling to their lowest level in a year. Investors who purchased PayPal stock and experienced losses may click here for more information.

According to data compiled from Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters, MarketWatch, and Seeking Alpha, the consensus analyst estimate heading into the February 3 earnings report called for revenue of $8.80 billion and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.30 to $1.33. PayPal delivered revenue of $8.68 billion, a shortfall of $120 million or approximately 1.4%. Adjusted EPS of $1.23 missed the low end of expectations by 5.4%.

The stock's reaction was immediate and pronounced. PayPal shares opened sharply lower on February 3, declining between 18% and 19% in midday trading. From a pre-announcement price of approximately $55.51, shares have fallen to the $42-$43 range, establishing a new 52-week low. This represented the stock's weakest level since late-2023. Trading volume spiked to three to four times the 30-day average, reflecting heavy selling pressure.

Multiple Wall Street firms had already turned cautious on PayPal before the earnings release. Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded the stock on January 28, cutting its price target to $50 from $70. Morgan Stanley followed on January 29-30, also trimming its target to $50 while flagging concerns about slower checkout growth. Following the earnings miss, additional analyst downgrades and price target reductions reinforced the negative sentiment.

The company's 2026 guidance compounded investor concerns. PayPal projected a first low single-digit revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share to be "down mid-single digits," both significantly below prior Street expectations.

Shareholders who lost money on their PayPal investment are invited to discuss their legal rights with Levi & Korsinsky at no charge.

Levi & Korsinsky, LLP is a nationally recognized firm with offices in New York, California, Connecticut, and Washington, D.C. that prosecutes securities, consumer, and shareholder class actions on behalf of investors (www.zlk.com).

CONTACT:

Joseph E. Levi, Esq.
Levi & Korsinsky, LLP
33 Whitehall Street, 27th Floor
New York, NY 10004
Tel: (212) 363-7500
Fax: (212) 363-7171
Email: jlevi@levikorsinsky.com
www.zlk.com

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/paypal-shares-plunge-to-12-month-low-after-q4-miss-revenue-and-eps-both-fall-short-of-estimates-302680879.html

SOURCE Levi & Korsinsky, LLP

FAQ

Why did PayPal (PYPL) shares drop to a 12-month low on February 3, 2026?

Shares fell primarily because PayPal missed Q4 2025 revenue and adjusted EPS expectations. According to the company, Q4 revenue was $8.68B versus $8.80B consensus and adjusted EPS was $1.23, triggering heavy selling and analyst downgrades.

How large was PayPal's Q4 2025 revenue and EPS miss (PYPL)?

PayPal reported Q4 2025 revenue of $8.68 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.23. According to the company, revenue missed consensus by about $120 million (1.4%) and EPS missed the low end of estimates.

What guidance did PayPal (PYPL) give for 2026 and why does it matter to investors?

PayPal guided to first-quarter low single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EPS down mid-single digits. According to the company, this outlook was below Street expectations and likely weighed on investor sentiment and valuations.

How far did PayPal (PYPL) shares fall from the pre-announcement price in February 2026?

Shares moved from a pre-announcement level near $55.51 to roughly $42–$43, creating a new 52-week low. According to market data cited, that decline represented heavy selling and volatility.

Did analyst firms change their ratings or targets for PayPal (PYPL) before the Q4 report?

Yes, multiple firms trimmed targets and ratings ahead of the release. For example, Redburn cut its target to $50 from $70 and Morgan Stanley trimmed its target to $50, signaling growing caution among analysts.

What legal action is associated with PayPal's (PYPL) Q4 miss and who is contacting investors?

Levi & Korsinsky is investigating investor losses tied to PayPal's Q4 2025 results and is inviting affected shareholders to discuss potential legal rights. The firm is contacting investors at no charge.