Absolute Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands Increased by Less than 1% in 2024, Even as Production Grew
Rhea-AI Summary
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) reports that absolute greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian oil sands rose by less than 1 MMtCO2e in 2024 while production increased by 150,000 barrels per day. The analysis shows the average GHG intensity fell 3% to 57 kgCO2e/bbl in 2024 and has declined 28% since 2009 (about 22 kgCO2e/bbl). Since 2019, absolute emissions rose ~5 MMtCO2e (avg 1% annually) as production grew ~400,000 b/d. S&P GI expects modest continued emissions growth unless future production slows.
Positive
- GHG intensity down 3% to 57 kgCO2e per barrel in 2024
- Intensity decline of 28% since 2009 (~22 kgCO2e/bbl)
- Production rose 150,000 b/d in 2024 with minimal emissions growth
Negative
- Absolute emissions increased by ~5 MMtCO2e since 2019
- Mined SCO production growth outpaced 2024 efficiency gains
- S&P expects absolute emissions to continue growing under current outlook
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, SPGI declined 0.60%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Efficiency gains continue to lower the greenhouse gas intensity of production, slowing absolute emissions growth
Absolute annual emissions rose by less than 1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMtCO2e) in 2024, according to the analysis. Meanwhile, total oil sands production rose 150,000 barrels per day (b/d).
Since 2019, absolute emissions increased by close to 5 MMtCO2e—an average of
"The story of oil sands intensity reductions is now well established to the extent that it is becoming the expectation," said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "Operators continue to focus on growth through optimization which drives more barrels for similar levels of energy and emissions. The result has been more production with increasingly modest absolute emissions growth."
The new S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue analysis finds that the average GHG intensity of oil sands production declined
Since 2009, the average GHG intensity of oil sands production has declined by
The increase in 2024 absolute emissions was due mostly to stronger growth in mined SCO production, which outpaced the efficiency gains in that production segment.
S&P Global Commodity Insights expects absolute emissions to continue to grow—albeit at a slower rate—as expected GHG intensity reductions may continue to be modestly outpaced by production additions. It remains possible that absolute emissions could stall or even decline modestly should future production growth prove to be lower than the current outlook.
"Oil sands production growth has exceeded expectations in recent years, with the S&P Global Commodity Insights annual 10-year production outlook being revised upward for four consecutive years," said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The potential for a peak in oil sands absolute emissions remains, but each year of stronger-than-expected production growth moves that prospect a bit further into the future."
Media Contacts:
Jeff Marn +1-202-463-8213, Jeff.marn@spglobal.com
About S&P Global Commodity Insights
At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.
We're a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.
S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en.
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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
FAQ
How much did Canadian oil sands emissions change in 2024 for SPGI?
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