Absolute Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands Increased by Less than 1% in 2024, Even as Production Grew
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) reports that absolute greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian oil sands rose by less than 1 MMtCO2e in 2024 while production increased by 150,000 barrels per day. The analysis shows the average GHG intensity fell 3% to 57 kgCO2e/bbl in 2024 and has declined 28% since 2009 (about 22 kgCO2e/bbl). Since 2019, absolute emissions rose ~5 MMtCO2e (avg 1% annually) as production grew ~400,000 b/d. S&P GI expects modest continued emissions growth unless future production slows.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) riferisce che le emissioni assolute di gas serra provenienti dalle sabbie bituminose canadesi sono aumentate di meno di 1 MtCO2e nel 2024 mentre la produzione è aumentata di 150.000 barili al giorno. L'analisi mostra che l'intensità media di GHG è scesa del 3% a 57 kgCO2e/bbl nel 2024 ed è diminuita del 28% dal 2009 (circa 22 kgCO2e/bbl). Dal 2019, le emissioni assolute sono aumentate di ~5 MtCO2e (in media l'1% all'anno) mentre la produzione è cresciuta di ~400.000 barili al giorno. S&P GI si aspetta una modesta crescita continua delle emissioni a meno che la futura produzione non rallenti.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) informa que las emisiones absolutas de gases de efecto invernadero de las arenas petrolíferas canadienses aumentaron en menos de 1 MtCO2e en 2024 mientras la producción aumentó en 150,000 barriles por día. El análisis muestra que la intensidad media de GEI cayó un 3% a 57 kgCO2e/bbl en 2024 y ha descendido un 28% desde 2009 (aprox. 22 kgCO2e/bbl). Desde 2019, las emisiones absolutas subieron ~5 MtCO2e (promedio 1% anual) a medida que la producción creció ~400,000 b/d. S&P GI espera un modesto crecimiento continuo de las emisiones a menos que la producción futura se ralentice.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI)는 캐나다의 오일샌드로부터의 절대 온실가스 배출량이 2024년에 1 MtCO2e 미만 상승했고 생산량은 일일 150,000배럴 증가했다고 보고합니다. 분석에 따르면 2024년 평균 GHG 강도는 3% 하락하여 57 kgCO2e/bbl이 되었고 2009년 이후 28% 감소했습니다(대략 22 kgCO2e/bbl). 2019년 이래로 절대 배출량은 ~5 MtCO2e 증가했으며(연평균 약 1%), 생산은 ~일일 400,000배럴 증가했습니다. S&P GI는 향후 생산이 둔화되지 않는 한 배출량의 완만한 증가를 계속 예상합니다.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) rapporte que les émissions absolues de gaz à effet de serre des sables bitumineux canadiens ont augmenté de moins de 1 MtCO2e en 2024, tandis que la production a augmenté de 150 000 barils par jour. L'analyse montre que l'intensité moyenne des GES a chuté de 3% pour atteindre 57 kgCO2e/bbl en 2024 et a diminué de 28% depuis 2009 (environ 22 kgCO2e/bbl). Depuis 2019, les émissions absolues ont augmenté d'environ 5 MtCO2e (moyenne 1% par an) alors que la production a augmenté d'environ 400 000 barils/jour. S&P GI s'attend à une modeste croissance continue des émissions à moins que la production future ne ralentisse.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) berichtet, dass die absoluten Treibhausgasemissionen aus den kanadischen Ölsanden im Jahr 2024 um weniger als 1 MtCO2e gestiegen sind, während die Produktion um 150.000 Barrels pro Tag zunahm. Die Analyse zeigt, dass die durchschnittliche GHG-Intensität im Jahr 2024 um 3% auf 57 kgCO2e/bbl gefallen ist und seit 2009 um 28% gesunken ist (ca. 22 kgCO2e/bbl). Seit 2019 sind absolute Emissionen um ca. 5 MtCO2e gestiegen (durchschnittlich 1% pro Jahr), während die Produktion um ca. 400.000 b/d zunahm. S&P GI erwartet ein moderates weiteres Emissionswachstum, solange die zukünftige Produktion nicht verlangsamt wird.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) يذكر أن الانبعاثات الكلية لغازات الدفيئة من الرمال النفطية الكندية ارتفعت بمقدار أقل من 1 MtCO2e في 2024 بينما ارتفع الإنتاج بمقدار 150,000 برميل يوميًا. التحليل يظهر أن كثافة غازات الدفيئة المتوسطة انخفضت بنسبة 3% لتصل إلى 57 kgCO2e/bbl في 2024 وتراجعت بنسبة 28% منذ 2009 (حوالي 22 kgCO2e/bbl). منذ 2019، ارتفعت الانبعاثات المطلقة بنحو 5 MtCO2e (متوسط سنوي نحو 1%) بينما ارتفع الإنتاج بنحو 400,000 برميل/اليوم. تتوقع S&P GI استمرار نمو الانبعاثات بشكل متواضع ما لم يتباطأ الإنتاج في المستقبل.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (SPGI) 报告称，2024 年加拿大油砂的绝对温室气体排放量上涨了 不足 1 MtCO2e，而产量增长了 每日 150,000 桶。分析显示，2024 年的平均GHG强度下降了 3%，降至 57 kgCO2e/bbl，自 2009 年以来下降了 28%（约 22 kgCO2e/bbl）。自 2019 年以来，绝对排放上升了大约 5 MtCO2e（平均每年约 1%），产量增长约 每日 400,000 桶。S&P GI 预计除非未来产量放缓，否则排放量将继续小幅增长。
- GHG intensity down 3% to 57 kgCO2e per barrel in 2024
- Intensity decline of 28% since 2009 (~22 kgCO2e/bbl)
- Production rose 150,000 b/d in 2024 with minimal emissions growth
- Absolute emissions increased by ~5 MMtCO2e since 2019
- Mined SCO production growth outpaced 2024 efficiency gains
- S&P expects absolute emissions to continue growing under current outlook
Insights
Oil sands emissions rose
What the data shows: Absolute emissions increased by under
Efficiency drives the mechanism: operators delivered more barrels with lower emissions per barrel through optimization. The net effect so far is modest absolute emissions growth because intensity improvements partially offset production gains.
Dependencies and risks: further absolute reductions depend on whether future production growth stays below the pace of intensity gains. The analysis explicitly notes mined SCO growth outpaced efficiency in
Concrete items to watch in the near term: annual production changes, GHG intensity per barrel, and shifts in mined versus in-situ share. Monitor these metrics over the next 12–36 months for signs that intensity improvements can outpace production growth.
Efficiency gains continue to lower the greenhouse gas intensity of production, slowing absolute emissions growth
Absolute annual emissions rose by less than 1 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMtCO2e) in 2024, according to the analysis. Meanwhile, total oil sands production rose 150,000 barrels per day (b/d).
Since 2019, absolute emissions increased by close to 5 MMtCO2e—an average of
"The story of oil sands intensity reductions is now well established to the extent that it is becoming the expectation," said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "Operators continue to focus on growth through optimization which drives more barrels for similar levels of energy and emissions. The result has been more production with increasingly modest absolute emissions growth."
The new S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue analysis finds that the average GHG intensity of oil sands production declined
Since 2009, the average GHG intensity of oil sands production has declined by
The increase in 2024 absolute emissions was due mostly to stronger growth in mined SCO production, which outpaced the efficiency gains in that production segment.
S&P Global Commodity Insights expects absolute emissions to continue to grow—albeit at a slower rate—as expected GHG intensity reductions may continue to be modestly outpaced by production additions. It remains possible that absolute emissions could stall or even decline modestly should future production growth prove to be lower than the current outlook.
"Oil sands production growth has exceeded expectations in recent years, with the S&P Global Commodity Insights annual 10-year production outlook being revised upward for four consecutive years," said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The potential for a peak in oil sands absolute emissions remains, but each year of stronger-than-expected production growth moves that prospect a bit further into the future."
Media Contacts:
Jeff Marn +1-202-463-8213, Jeff.marn@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
FAQ
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