Absolute Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands Near-Flat in 2023 Even as Production Grew
Rhea-AI Summary
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Canadian oil sands' absolute greenhouse gas emissions increased by less than 1% in 2023 despite production growth. Since 2020, emissions growth has slowed to about 1% annually, compared to 5% in the previous decade. While absolute emissions were 3% higher in 2023 compared to 2019, production grew by 9% (250,000 barrels per day) in the same period. The average GHG intensity of production decreased to 58 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per barrel in 2023, marking a 28% reduction since 2009. Despite this trend, absolute emissions are expected to rise in the near term due to anticipated production increases.
Positive
- GHG emissions growth slowed to 1% annually since 2020, down from 5% in previous decade
- Production efficiency improved with 28% reduction in GHG intensity since 2009
- Oil sands production increased by 9% (250,000 barrels/day) from 2019 to 2023
Negative
- Absolute emissions increased 3% (3 million metric tons) from 2019 to 2023
- Further emissions increases expected in near term due to production growth
- Additional decarbonization efforts required to meet 2030 federal emissions limits
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Annual growth in absolute emissions was less than
The slowdown in absolute emissions growth has occurred even as oil sands production continues to increase. Compared to 2019, absolute emissions were
"The years-long trend of declining greenhouse gas intensity, coupled with slower production growth continues to slow the rise of absolute emissions," said Kevin Birn, Vice President, Canadian Oil Markets Chief Analyst and Head of Center for Emissions Excellence, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The fact that the rate of production additions is outstripping emissions growth indicates that the production that is coming forward is of a much lower intensity than the overall average."
The S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue analysis finds that the average GHG intensity of oil sands production fell to 58 kilograms of "carbon dioxide equivalent" per barrel (kgCO2e/bbl) in 2023, the most recent year that S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates are available. Since 2009 the average GHG intensity of oil sands production has declined by nearly
S&P Global Commodity Insights has previously noted that the lower pace of absolute emissions growth may indicate oil sands emissions could peak sooner, and at a lower level than previously expected. The latest analysis, based on 2023 operations, continues to suggest this could be the case. Nevertheless, absolute emissions are still expected to rise in the near term due to more pronounced production additions expected in the next few years.
"Anticipated production additions are expected to outstrip intensity reductions in the near term, and that means that greater decarbonization efforts from the sector will likely be required to meet the proposed federal oil and gas emissions limit by 2030," said Birn. "Bringing sufficient carbon and storage capacity online in just a few short years will be a challenge. However, the slower pace of emissions additions could make the proposed 2030 emissions limit more achievable."
Media Contacts:
Jeff Marn +1-202-463-8213, Jeff.marn@spglobal.com
Global/EMEA: Paul Sandell + 44 (0)7816 180039, paul.sandell@spglobal.com
Americas: Kathleen Tanzy + 1 917-331-4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights