CHINA DRIVES STRONGEST GROWTH IN GLOBAL FACTORY PURCHASING SINCE MID-2022, WHILE NORTH AMERICAN MANUFACTURERS COOL IN SEPTEMBER: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index (SPGI) — Sept. 10, 2025: the index was essentially unchanged at -0.38 (Aug: -0.39), signalling global supply chains remain underutilized. China drove the report, with factory purchasing rising at the fastest pace since mid-2022 and pushing Asia toward near-full utilization. North America cooled as tariff delays and a softer economic outlook reduced purchasing and inventory restocking. Europe fell to its weakest level since March; the UK improved to -0.57 from -0.90 but stayed weak. Material shortages and labor constraints eased in September.
GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index (SPGI) — 10 settembre 2025: l'indice è stato sostanzialmente invariato a -0.38 (agosto: -0.39), segnalando che le catene di approvvigionamento globali rimangono sottoutilizzate. La Cina ha guidato il rapporto, con gli acquisti nelle fabbriche in aumento al ritmo più rapido dall'inizio del 2022 e spingendo l'Asia verso una quasi piena utilizzazione. Il Nord America si è raffreddato poiché ritardi tariffari e una prospettiva economica più morbida hanno ridotto gli acquisti e il rifornimento delle scorte. L'Europa è scesa al livello più basso da marzo; il Regno Unito è migliorato a -0.57 da -0.90, ma è rimasto debole. Le carenze di materiali e le restrizioni della manodopera si sono attenuate a settembre.
Índice de Volatilidad de la Cadena de Suministro Global (SPGI) de GEP — 10 de septiembre de 2025: el índice estuvo prácticamente sin cambios en -0.38 (agosto: -0.39), lo que indica que las cadenas de suministro globales siguen subutilizadas. China lideró el informe, con las compras en fábricas creciendo a su ritmo más rápido desde mediados de 2022 y llevando a Asia hacia una utilización casi total. América del Norte se enfrió, ya que los retrasos de aranceles y una perspectiva económica más débil redujeron las compras y la reposición de inventarios. Europa cayó a su nivel más bajo desde marzo; el Reino Unido mejoró a -0.57 desde -0.90 pero siguió siendo débil. Las escaseces de materiales y las limitaciones de la mano de obra se aliviaron en septiembre.
GEP 글로벌 공급망 변동성 지수(SPGI) — 2025년 9월 10일: 지수는 사실상 변동 없이 -0.38로 유지되었고(8월: -0.39), 글로벌 공급망이 여전히 활용도가 낮음을 시사합니다. 중국이 보고서를 주도했고, 공장 구매가 2022년 중반 이후 가장 빠른 속도로 증가해 아시아를 거의 완전 가동에 가까운 수준으로 밀어 올렸습니다. 북아메리카는 관세 지연과 더 완만해진 경제 전망으로 구매와 재고 보충이 둔화되었습니다. 유럽은 3월 이후 최저 수준으로 하락했고; 영국은 -0.57로 개선되었지만 여전히 약했습니다. 9월에는 원자재 부족과 노동력 제약이 완화되었습니다.
GEP Indice de volatilité de la chaîne d'approvisionnement mondiale (SPGI) — 10 septembre 2025 : l'indice est resté pratiquement inchangé à -0.38 (août : -0.39), ce qui indique que les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales restent sous-utilisées. La Chine a conduit le rapport, les achats industriels augmentant à leur rythme le plus rapide depuis la mi-2022 et propulsant l'Asie vers une utilisation quasi complète. L’Amérique du Nord s'est refroidie, les retards douaniers et un climat économique plus faible ayant réduit les achats et le réapprovisionnement des stocks. L'Europe est tombée à son niveau le plus faible depuis mars; le Royaume-Uni s'est amélioré à -0.57 contre -0.90 mais est resté faible. Les pénuries de matériaux et les contraintes de main-d'œuvre se sont assouplies en septembre.
GEP Globaler Lieferketten-Volatilitätsindex (SPGI) — 10. September 2025: Der Index verharrte im Wesentlichen bei -0.38 (Aug.: -0.39), was darauf hindeutet, dass globale Lieferketten weiterhin unterausgelastet sind. China trieb den Bericht voran, da Fabrikaufträge zum schnellsten Anstieg seit Mitte 2022 zogen und Asien zu einer nahezu vollständigen Auslastung führten. Nordamerika kühlte ab, da Zollverzögerungen und ein schwächerer Konjunkturausblick Käufe und Lagerbestände reduzierten. Europa fiel auf den niedrigsten Stand seit März; Großbritannien verbesserte sich auf -0.57 von -0.90, blieb aber schwach. Materialknappheit und Arbeitskräftebeschränkungen lüften sich im September.
مؤشر تقلبات سلسلة الإمداد العالمية GEP (SPGI) — 10 سبتمبر 2025: ظل المؤشر دون تغيير يذكر عند -0.38 (أغسطس: -0.39)، مما يشير إلى أن سلاسل الإمداد العالمية لا تزال غير مستغلة إلى حد كبير. الصين قادت التقرير، حيث ارتفع شراء المصانع بأسرع وتيرة منذ منتصف 2022 ودفع آسيا نحو استخدام شبه كامل. أميركا الشمالية بردت بسبب تأخر الرسوم الجمركية وتوقع اقتصادي أضعف قللا الشراء وإعادة تخزين المخزون. أوروبا تراجعت إلى أسوأ مستوى منذ مارس؛ تحسن البريطانيون إلى -0.57 من -0.90 ولكنه ظل ضعيفا. ظهرت تحسنات في سبتمبر في نقص المواد والقيود العمالية.
GEP全球供应链波动性指数（SPGI） — 2025年9月10日：指数基本保持不变，为-0.38（8月：-0.39），这表明全球供应链仍处于低利用状态。中国推动了此次报告，工厂采购自2022年中以来增速最快，推动亚洲接近全面利用。北美因关税延迟和较弱的经济前景而降温，减少了采购和库存补充。欧洲降至自3月以来的最低水平；英国从-0.90改善到-0.57，但仍然疲软。9月材料短缺和劳动约束有所缓解。
- Index stable at -0.38 in September 2025
- China purchasing strongest since mid-2022
- Asia supply chains near full utilization
- Global material shortages decreased in September
- North American manufacturers reduced purchasing due to tariffs
- Europe supply-chain activity weakest since March 2025
- UK manufacturing still weak at -0.57
Insights
China's purchasing surge offsets weaker North American and European demand, leaving global capacity underused overall.
GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index remains below zero on
North America showed reduced purchasing and inventory accumulation due to tariff delays and a softer outlook, while Europe registered its weakest supply‑chain activity since March. The report also notes easing material and labour shortages and transportation costs at normal levels, which reduces near‑term supply constraints.
Key dependencies and near‑term risks include continued Chinese demand sustaining Asian utilization and tariff/disruption dynamics constraining North American procurement. Watch the next data release on
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Chinese manufacturers sharply increased purchasing in September, propelling
Asia's supply chains to their busiest level since June 2022. - In contrast, tariff-related disruptions and a softer economic outlook curbed North American manufacturing activity.
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Europe's recovery remains sluggish, with supply chains operating at their weakest since March.
However, Chinese factories report a strong rise in purchasing, pushing global manufacturing procurement activity up at the fastest rate since mid-2022. This expansion pushed
In sharp contrast, North American supply chains lost momentum. Manufacturers cited tariff-related delays and growing concerns about the economic outlook, leading many to hold back purchasing and reduce inventory buffers.
Meanwhile,
"This is the new normal for global companies — higher prices, tariff pressure, and slower growth are here to stay," said John Piatek, Vice President, Consulting, GEP. "For supply chain leaders who've been waiting to see how things settle: this is as stable as it's going to get — it's time to start executing their revised strategies."
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
SEPTEMBER REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS
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ASIA : Factory activity inChina picked up in September, with a notable boost in demand driving the strongest rise in input purchasing acrossAsia for ten months. -
NORTH AMERICA : Manufacturers displayed a reticence to stockpile further in September, after August's bumper rise due to concerns about the economic outlook, although delivery delays and tariff-related disruptions were reportedly hindrances. -
EUROPE : Factory purchasing lost momentum in September, withGermany ,France andItaly all reporting softer procurement trends, driving the region's respective Index to a six-month low. -
U.K. : Although the index rose to -0.57, from -0.90, it is still at a level reflecting significant manufacturing weakness across the country.
SEPTEMBER 2025 DETAILED FINDINGS
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DEMAND: September saw a revival in factory purchasing, which made its strongest gains since June 2022.
Asia was central to this uplift, particularlyChina , as the globe's second-largest economy ramped up buying to facilitate sharper growth in production and sales. Input demand trends were far more constrained inNorth America andEurope . -
INVENTORIES: The frequency at which manufacturers across the globe stockpiled due to price or supply fears continued to decrease in September, indicating factory procurement leaders are becoming less concerned about purchase cost inflation or item availability in the near term.
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MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Our global supply shortages tracker decreased in September, indicating robust item availability. Factories will have little, if any, challenges in sourcing vendors for commodities, components and other intermediate products.
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LABOR SHORTAGES: Staffing capacity was not a constraint for global manufacturers during September. Reports of backlogs rising due to labor shortages fell further below the long-term average and were the lowest in six months.
- TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs were in line with historically normal levels during September.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Nov. 12, 2025.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.
- A value above 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being stretched and supply chain volatility is increasing. The further above 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being stretched.
- A value below 0 indicates that supply chain capacity is being underutilized, reducing supply chain volatility. The further below 0, the greater the extent to which capacity is being underutilized.
A Supply Chain Volatility Index is also published at a regional level for
About GEP
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FAQ
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