S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX RECORDS 3.4% ANNUAL GAIN IN MARCH 2025

Rhea-AI Summary

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, down from 4% in February. Among the 20 cities tracked, New York led with an 8% increase, followed by Chicago (6.5%) and Cleveland (5.9%). Tampa was the only metro showing decline (-2.2%). Month-over-month, the National Index rose 0.8% before seasonal adjustment but decreased 0.3% after adjustment. Despite slowing year-over-year appreciation, the spring market showed renewed momentum with 18 of 20 metro areas posting positive monthly gains. The market faced continued affordability challenges with mortgage rates in the mid-6% range, though tight inventory levels and seasonal demand helped support prices.

Positive

• Home prices remained at record highs, maintaining substantial equity for long-term homeowners
• 18 out of 20 metro areas showed positive monthly price gains in March
• Strong performance in major markets with New York (+8%), Chicago (+6.5%), and Cleveland (+5.9%) leading annual gains
• National Index posted biggest one-month jump of 2025 at 0.8% (non-seasonally adjusted)

Negative

• Overall annual price growth decelerated to 3.4% from 4% in February
• Tampa market showed negative growth (-2.2% year-over-year)
• Affordability remains severely constrained with mortgage rates in mid-6% range
• After seasonal adjustment, National Index declined 0.3% month-over-month

Insights

Housing Market Economist

Case-Shiller Index shows slowing home price growth amid affordability challenges, with regional divergences and seasonal spring uptick.

The latest Case-Shiller Index reveals a deceleration in home price growth, with the National Index posting a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, down from 4.0% in February. This slowdown represents a broader cooling trend, particularly notable as only 0.9% of the year-over-year increase occurred in the past six months.

The data exposes fascinating regional disparities in housing market strength. New York leads with an impressive 8.0% annual gain, followed by Chicago (6.5%) and Cleveland (5.9%). Meanwhile, Sun Belt markets continue their adjustment phase, with Tampa actually declining 2.2% year-over-year and Dallas barely remaining positive at 0.2%. This geographical divergence reflects the unwinding of pandemic-era migration patterns and varying regional affordability dynamics.

Despite the annual slowdown, March showed strong month-over-month momentum with the National Index rising 0.8% (non-seasonally adjusted) – the largest monthly gain this year. However, after seasonal adjustment, the index declined 0.3%, indicating these gains largely reflect typical spring seasonality rather than extraordinary market strength.

The fundamental tension in today's housing market persists: severe inventory constraints versus affordability challenges. With mortgage rates hovering in the mid-6% range during March, affordability remains near multi-decade lows. Yet price declines have been prevented by historically low inventory levels, as existing homeowners remain reluctant to surrender their lower pandemic-era mortgage rates. This supply-demand imbalance explains how prices continue climbing despite affordability headwinds.

The data confirms we're experiencing a market that's neither booming nor crashing but rather adjusting to post-pandemic realities under the weight of higher financing costs, with pronounced regional variations reflecting local economic conditions and migration patterns.

NEW YORK, May 27, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the March 2025 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, a slight decrease from the previous reading in February 2025. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual return for March, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8%, down from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8% increase in March, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices saw slight upward trends in March, posting gains of 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index recorded a 0.01% increase and the 20-City Composite Index presented a -0.1% decrease.

ANALYSIS

"Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place.

"The National Composite Home Price Index posted a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, down from February's 4.0% pace. Notably, only 0.9% of that year-over-year increase came from the past six months, indicating that most appreciation was front-loaded earlier in the year-long period. This pattern underscored a broad cooling trend in second-half 2024 home prices even as spring 2025 arrived. By comparison, the 20-City Composite rose 4.1% year over year, and the 10-City Composite climbed 4.8%, reflecting somewhat stronger annual appreciation in the largest urban markets.

"Regional price trends remained varied. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices up 8.0% year over year in March, followed by Chicago (+6.5%) and Cleveland (+5.9%). At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas barely stayed positive at +0.2% YoY, and Tampa saw prices fall 2.2%, making it the only metro to post a year-over-year decline. These results underscored how markets that experienced sharp run-ups earlier in the cycle – particularly in the Sun Belt – continued to adjust under the weight of higher mortgage rates and strained affordability.

"On a month-over-month basis, March saw an even stronger broad-based upswing. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas registered positive monthly price gains before seasonal adjustment, signaling that price increases were widespread across the country. Cleveland (+1.8%), Seattle (+1.8%), and New York (+1.5%) led all markets with the largest March increases, as the spring selling season boosted prices. By contrast, Tampa (-0.3%) and Miami (-0.2%) were the only cities to see prices slip for the month. Nationally, the U.S. National Index rose 0.8% in March (NSA) – the biggest one-month jump so far this year – but it declined 0.3% (SA) after adjusting for seasonal trends, indicating that March's hefty gains largely aligned with typical springtime patterns.

"Looking at the market environment, affordability remained severely constrained, though it did not worsen materially in early 2025 as borrowing costs stabilized. Mortgage rates hovered in the mid-6% range throughout March, keeping monthly payment burdens near multi-decade highs relative to incomes. This continued to weigh on buyer demand, but persistent supply shortages helped counteract the headwinds. Many existing homeowners remained reluctant to sell and give up low pandemic-era mortgage rates, and new construction activity stayed limited – a combination that kept inventory levels extremely tight. The scarcity of homes for sale offset softer demand and helped support home prices, enabling a broad seasonal uptick despite the challenging affordability backdrop.

"Even as year-over-year gains slowed, U.S. home prices remained at record highs, ensuring long-term homeowners retained substantial equity," Godec concluded. "This spring's price resurgence illustrated that seasonal demand and tight supply could reignite price growth, but it also underscored the housing market's continued sensitivity to mortgage rates and affordability constraints."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

	2006 Peak		2012 Trough			Current
Index	Level	Date	Level	Date	From Peak (%)		Level	From Trough (%)	From Peak (%)
National	184.61	Jul-06	133.99	Feb-12	-27.4 %		327.68	144.6 %	77.5 %
20-City	206.52	Jul-06	134.07	Mar-12	-35.1 %		338.89	152.8 %	64.1 %
10-City	226.29	Jun-06	146.45	Mar-12	-35.3 %		358.64	144.9 %	58.5 %

Table 2 below summarizes the results for March 2025. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

	March 2025	March/February	February/January	1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	Change (%)
Atlanta	248.98	0.9 %	0.3 %	2.5 %
Boston	343.52	0.7 %	0.4 %	4.7 %
Charlotte	281.23	0.7 %	0.0 %	2.6 %
Chicago	214.92	1.2 %	0.6 %	6.5 %
Cleveland	196.68	1.8 %	0.3 %	5.9 %
Dallas	295.71	0.5 %	0.1 %	0.2 %
Denver	319.95	1.1 %	0.6 %	1.4 %
Detroit	192.45	1.1 %	0.5 %	5.8 %
Las Vegas	302.69	0.7 %	0.1 %	4.7 %
Los Angeles	451.86	1.5 %	1.5 %	4.1 %
Miami	440.82	-0.2 %	-0.3 %	1.8 %
Minneapolis	242.01	1.1 %	0.2 %	2.8 %
New York	325.65	1.5 %	0.5 %	8.0 %
Phoenix	330.80	0.1 %	0.1 %	1.9 %
Portland	331.84	0.8 %	0.5 %	1.4 %
San Diego	445.11	1.0 %	1.1 %	1.7 %
San Francisco	361.70	1.1 %	1.8 %	1.6 %
Seattle	398.37	1.8 %	1.6 %	4.2 %
Tampa	373.35	-0.3 %	-0.3 %	-2.2 %
Washington	336.61	1.3 %	0.7 %	4.5 %
Composite-10	358.64	1.2 %	0.8 %	4.8 %
Composite-20	338.89	1.1 %	0.7 %	4.1 %
U.S. National	327.68	0.8 %	0.5 %	3.4 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through March 2025

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

	March/February Change (%)		February/January Change (%)
Metropolitan Area	NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Atlanta	0.9 %	0.1 %	0.3 %	0.3 %
Boston	0.7 %	-0.4 %	0.4 %	0.3 %
Charlotte	0.7 %	-0.3 %	0.0 %	0.1 %
Chicago	1.2 %	0.3 %	0.6 %	0.7 %
Cleveland	1.8 %	0.6 %	0.3 %	0.6 %
Dallas	0.5 %	-0.8 %	0.1 %	-0.3 %
Denver	1.1 %	-0.7 %	0.6 %	-0.2 %
Detroit	1.1 %	0.2 %	0.5 %	0.4 %
Las Vegas	0.7 %	-0.1 %	0.1 %	0.2 %
Los Angeles	1.5 %	0.1 %	1.5 %	0.7 %
Miami	-0.2 %	-0.8 %	-0.3 %	0.3 %
Minneapolis	1.1 %	-0.1 %	0.2 %	0.0 %
New York	1.5 %	0.9 %	0.5 %	0.9 %
Phoenix	0.1 %	-0.7 %	0.1 %	0.0 %
Portland	0.8 %	-0.7 %	0.5 %	-0.3 %
San Diego	1.0 %	-0.8 %	1.1 %	-0.4 %
San Francisco	1.1 %	-1.4 %	1.8 %	0.2 %
Seattle	1.8 %	-0.6 %	1.6 %	0.0 %
Tampa	-0.3 %	-1.0 %	-0.3 %	-0.1 %
Washington	1.3 %	0.0 %	0.7 %	0.2 %
Composite-10	1.2 %	0.0 %	0.8 %	0.5 %
Composite-20	1.1 %	-0.1 %	0.7 %	0.4 %
U.S. National	0.8 %	-0.3 %	0.5 %	0.3 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through March 2025

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

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FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Alyssa Augustyn
Communications Manager
New York, USA
+1 773-919-4732
alyssa.augustyn@spglobal.com 

S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

Case-Shiller^® and CoreLogic^® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.

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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices

FAQ

What was the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index annual gain in March 2025?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, down from 4% in February.

Which city showed the highest home price appreciation in March 2025?

New York showed the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8% increase, followed by Chicago (6.5%) and Cleveland (5.9%).

How did home prices change month-over-month in March 2025?

The National Index rose 0.8% before seasonal adjustment but decreased 0.3% after seasonal adjustment in March 2025.

Which housing market performed worst in March 2025?

Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2% year-over-year, making it the only metro area to show a decline.

What were the main challenges in the housing market in March 2025?

The market faced severe affordability constraints with mortgage rates in the mid-6% range, though tight inventory levels helped support prices.