S&P Global Mobility: Pace of May U.S. auto sales to decelerate from March and April surge

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Mobility projects U.S. auto sales in May 2025 to reach 1.47 million units, representing a modest 2% increase from May 2024. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is expected to be 15.7 million units, marking a significant decline from the 17.6-million-unit average during March-April 2025. Light truck SAAR is projected at 13.0 million units, while passenger cars should reach 2.7 million units. Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market share is anticipated to slightly decrease to 6.8% in May, down from 7.0% in March and April, reflecting uncertainty around BEV incentives. Analysts warn this may be the last month of positive year-over-year growth due to tariff uncertainties and inventory challenges.

Positive

• U.S. auto sales expected to grow 2% year-over-year in May 2025
• Light truck SAAR projected to increase to 13.0 million units from 12.9 million year-ago

Negative

• SAAR expected to decline to 15.7M units from 17.6M average in March-April
• BEV market share projected to decrease to 6.8% from 7.0%
• Future monthly sales levels expected to decelerate further
• Uncertainty in tariff policies affecting automaker production plans

Insights

Automotive Industry Analyst

May auto sales show slowing momentum with SAAR dropping to 15.7M units from March-April's 17.6M average, signaling industry deceleration ahead.

The May 2025 U.S. auto sales data reveals a significant deceleration in market momentum. While the raw volume of 1.47 million units appears positive with 2% year-over-year growth, this required an extra selling day to achieve. The more telling metric is the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.7 million units – a substantial drop from the 17.6 million unit average seen during March-April.

This cooling effect follows a period of potentially artificial demand acceleration, where consumers and dealers likely rushed purchases ahead of expected tariff implementations. The data suggests we're witnessing the beginning of a downward trend, not merely a temporary fluctuation. Chris Hopson's statement that May "will likely be the last period this year to post positive growth" serves as a critical warning signal about deteriorating market conditions.

The vehicle mix continues to heavily favor light trucks at 13.0 million SAAR versus just 2.7 million for passenger cars, representing nearly an 83% truck share. This truck-heavy mix typically benefits domestic automakers' margins but raises questions about fleet efficiency amid shifting regulatory landscapes.

Perhaps most concerning is the BEV adoption trajectory. The 6.8% projected May share continues a downward trend from previous periods, suggesting the BEV market is experiencing headwinds beyond just strong non-BEV demand. This stagnation in electrification rates signals potential regulatory uncertainty that could significantly impact automakers with heavy BEV investments.

U.S. auto sales in May are expected to reach 1.47 million units, up mildly from year ago and month prior levels, but taking an extra selling day to do so.

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., May 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month projected at 1.47 million units, May 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.7 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. The SAAR reading will be an expected and definitive step down from the 17.6-million-unit average over the March to April period. With one more selling day than both the year-ago and month prior periods, May 2025 volume is expected to be up 2% from the May 2024 level and up fractionally from the April 2025 result.

"Given the swirling tariff, consumer and auto inventory conditions, the expected May 2025 auto sales result will likely be the last period this year to post positive growth in year-ago and month-prior comparisons," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The strong sales surges in March and April, followed by the moderate May result, reduced some inventory levels. Shifting tariff policies have automakers scrambling to produce vehicles while they can, but uncertainty abounds in the immediate term and upcoming monthly sales levels are expected to decelerate further."

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
		May 25 (Est)	Apr 25	May 24
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,472,100	1,463,379	1,431,081
	In millions, SAAR	15.7	17.3	15.8
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.0	14.4	12.9
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	2.7	2.9	2.9
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast, although an unsettled regulatory and incentive policy environment has raised the potential that future growth levels will be more mild. In the immediate term, month-to-month volatility is anticipated. BEV share fell to an estimated 7.0% in both March and April, and while some of the lower share could be attributed to strong non-BEV demand, BEV growth is moderating. May BEV share is expected to reach a similar 6.8% share, reflective of the uneasiness as automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives. 

About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility. 

Media Contact:

mobilitycomms@spglobal.com 

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is the projected U.S. auto sales volume for May 2025?

S&P Global Mobility projects U.S. auto sales to reach 1.47 million units in May 2025, up 2% from May 2024.

How does SPGI expect the May 2025 SAAR to compare to previous months?

The May 2025 SAAR is expected to be 15.7 million units, down significantly from the 17.6-million-unit average during March-April 2025.

What is the projected BEV market share for May 2025?

BEV market share is expected to reach 6.8% in May 2025, slightly down from 7.0% in March and April 2025.

What are the key challenges facing U.S. auto sales according to S&P Global Mobility?

Key challenges include swirling tariff conditions, consumer uncertainty, auto inventory levels, and potential changes to BEV incentives.

What is the breakdown between light trucks and passenger cars in the May 2025 forecast?

Light trucks are projected at 13.0 million SAAR, while passenger cars are expected to reach 2.7 million SAAR.