S&P Global Energy Releases Key Clean Energy+ Trends for 2026 as AI Growth and Geopolitical Shifts Reshape Global Energy Markets

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Energy (SPGI) released its Horizons Top Trends for 2026 outlining how AI-driven power demand, geopolitics and climate risks will reshape energy markets.

Key metrics: global datacenter power demand +17% to 2026 and +14%/yr to 2030 (> 2,200 TWh potential); US datacenter capital spending ~$500B in 2026; China solar additions fall from ~300 GW (2025) to ~200 GW (2026) causing a <10% global decline in new solar installs; EU grid capex need ~€584B by 2030; electrolyzer deployment to 4.5 GW in 2026 with stack prices <$100/kW; global SAF capacity ~8 MMt in 2026; EU CBAM effective Jan 1, 2026.

Positive

• Datacenter power demand projected +17% to 2026
• US datacenter capital spending near $500B in 2026
• Cumulative PV capacity expected to double over five years
• Electrolyzer deployment to 4.5 GW in 2026; stacks <$100/kW

Negative

• Global new solar installations to decline <10% in 2026
• China solar additions falling from ~300 GW (2025) to ~200 GW (2026)
• EU grids require ~€584B capex by 2030; 40% of grids >40 years old
• Projected annual climate-related costs ~$885B for large public companies in the 2030s

Key Figures

Datacenter power growth 2024–2026 17% increase Global datacenter power demand to 2026 in high-growth view

Datacenter power CAGR 14% per year Projected global datacenter power demand growth 2026–2030

Datacenter power demand 2,200 TWh Potential global datacenter demand by 2030, like India’s current use

Companies without net-zero 38% Assessed firms with datacenter operations lacking net-zero commitments

EU grid capex need €584 billion Estimated grid capital expenditure required by 2030

Corporate power procurement 27 GW (43%) Datacenters’ share of corporate power procurement in 2025 through October

Chinese electrolyzer installs 2025 1.5 GW Green hydrogen electrolyzer capacity additions in China in 2025

Climate-related costs $885 billion Projected annual climate-related costs for large public firms in 2030s

Market Reality Check

$491.32 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,460,856 shares is roughly in line with the 20-day average of 1,465,159. normal

Technical Price $492.10 is trading below the 200-day MA at $509.27, and about 15% under the 52-week high of $579.05.

Peers on Argus

SPGI was down 1.29% with peers mostly softer: MCO -1.41%, ICE -0.51%, NDAQ -0.22%, while CME was flat (-0.03%) and MSCI slightly up 0.23%. The move appears more stock-specific than a broad sector momentum event.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 04	Leadership changes	Positive	-0.6%	New senior leaders appointed for Mobility ahead of planned spin-off.
Dec 01	Debt offering pricing	Neutral	-0.8%	Priced private placement of $1.0B senior notes due 2031 and 2035.
Dec 01	Benchmark milestone	Positive	-0.7%	Ten-year anniversary of Platts steel benchmarks as LME settlement basis.
Dec 01	AI partnership	Positive	-0.7%	New AWS integrations to feed SPGI datasets into customer AI workflows.
Dec 01	Debt offering launch	Neutral	-0.7%	Proposed private placement of senior notes for general corporate purposes.

Pattern Detected

Recent SPGI news, including AI initiatives and financing actions, has often seen modestly negative next-day moves even when the news itself was operationally positive or neutral.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, SPGI has combined solid financial performance with strategic portfolio moves and AI expansion. Q3 revenue reached $3,888M with diluted EPS of $3.86, alongside active capital returns and a planned spin-off of the Mobility segment. The company also completed a $1B senior notes offering and continued refining leadership ahead of the Mobility separation. Multiple AI- and energy-related initiatives, including AWS integrations and benchmark developments, frame today’s Horizons report on AI-driven power demand and clean energy trends as part of a broader data and analytics thought-leadership push.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement outlines S&P Global Energy Horizons’ view that AI-driven datacenter demand, grid bottlenecks, and climate risks will be central to energy markets in 2026. It highlights large projected grid investments, accelerating green hydrogen deployment, and evolving EV and SAF adoption. In context of SPGI’s broader AI and energy analytics strategy, investors may track how often these themes recur in company research, client demand for related datasets, and future regulatory developments around carbon reporting and border adjustments.

Key Terms

power purchase agreements financial

"Flexible Power Purchase Agreements become the new standard as price volatility..."

A power purchase agreement is a long-term contract in which a buyer agrees to purchase electricity from a specific generator at a set price and schedule, much like a multi-year subscription for energy. For investors, these contracts matter because they lock in predictable revenue and price terms, reducing exposure to volatile wholesale power markets and making project cash flows and financing risks easier to evaluate.

electrolyzers technical

"Chinese projects will install about 1.5 GW of electrolyzers in 2025..."

Electrolyzers are machines that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, producing hydrogen gas without burning fossil fuels. For investors, they matter because they are the core technology for making low-carbon hydrogen at scale — similar to how an oven transforms raw ingredients into a finished meal — so their cost, efficiency, and durability directly affect the economics, emissions profile, and growth potential of clean-energy and industrial projects that rely on hydrogen.

sustainable aviation fuel technical

"Global dedicated sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity is expected to rise..."

Sustainable aviation fuel is a low‑carbon replacement for conventional jet fuel made from renewable sources (like plant residues, waste oils, or captured carbon) but refined to meet the same safety and performance rules as regular jet fuel. Investors care because SAF can lower airlines’ carbon footprints and exposure to tightening regulations, create new supply and cost dynamics in the fuel market, and drive long‑term demand shifts — like using cleaner fuel in the same airplane.

greenhouse gas (ghg) protocol regulatory

"while major revisions are proposed for the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol standard."

A greenhouse gas (GHG) protocol is a widely used set of rules for measuring and reporting a company’s climate pollution so everyone uses the same “ruler.” It breaks emissions into categories (direct, purchased energy, and supply-chain) and gives step-by-step guidance to produce consistent, comparable numbers. Investors use it to judge climate risk, track progress toward targets, compare companies fairly, and spot potential regulatory, cost or reputational problems tied to emissions.

carbon border adjustment mechanism regulatory

"The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) takes effect January 1st, 2026..."

A carbon border adjustment mechanism is a government policy that charges importers for the greenhouse gas emissions associated with goods produced abroad, matching the price domestic producers pay for carbon. Think of it like a tariff that levels the playing field so companies that face strict pollution rules at home aren’t undercut by cheaper, more polluting imports; investors watch it because it can shift trade flows, profit margins, and competitive advantage across industries.

free-on-board basis technical

"with indications of prices as low as $600 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis (FOB)."

Free-on-board basis is a shipping term that specifies the exact point when ownership, risk, and shipping costs move from the seller to the buyer — most commonly when goods are loaded onto the named transport vessel at the seller’s port. For investors, it matters because that transfer determines which party records the inventory, recognizes revenue, and is liable for loss or damage during transit, similar to handing a package to a courier mid-journey versus at the final stop.

battery electric vehicles technical

"with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)..."

Battery electric vehicles are cars and trucks that run entirely on electricity stored in rechargeable batteries, with no gasoline engine or fuel tank. Think of them like an electric appliance on wheels that must be plugged in to recharge; this affects costs, resale value, and how consumers use the vehicle. Investors care because BEVs change demand, production costs, supply chains (battery materials and charging infrastructure), regulatory exposure, and capital needs for manufacturers and suppliers.

plug-in hybrid electric vehicles technical

"with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)..."

A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a car that combines a conventional gasoline engine with an electric motor and a rechargeable battery that you can plug in to charge; it can run on electric power for short trips and switch to gasoline for longer distances, like a tool that has two power sources. Investors care because PHEVs sit between traditional cars and full electric vehicles—demand, government incentives, fuel and maintenance costs, and battery technology developments can affect sales, profit margins and long-term market shifts for automakers and suppliers.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

AI-driven power demand surge tests grid, sustainability limits while China consolidates cleantech leadership in transformative year for energy transition

- Solar Installations Peak (for Now) –

LONDON and NEW YORK and SINGAPORE, Dec. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Energy today released its Top Trends report identifying the pivotal developments shaping clean energy technology, sustainability and growth in global energy markets in 2026. The report was produced by analysts of its Horizons team, which provides comprehensive energy expansion and sustainability intelligence, from big picture trends to asset level insights.

"In 2026, AI's surging power demand growth will be testing grid limits, revenue models and sustainability goals," said Eduard Sala de Vedruna, Vice President and Head of Research, Horizons, S&P Global Energy. "The pace of progress will depend on unlocking new capacity and flexibility, with grid modernization a key constraint on energy security and competitiveness."

S&P Global Energy Horizons Top Trends for 2026—tackling themes from AI's rapid growth, geopolitical realignments, and mounting climate risks—highlight how energy expansion and sustainability are necessarily interlinked.

"The interplay of AI-driven demand, grid bottlenecks, evolving procurement strategies, and rising climate risks highlights how energy expansion and sustainability are not parallel ambitions, but intertwined imperatives," said Leanne Todd, Senior Vice President, Global Head of Horizons, S&P Global Energy.

To access the full report and charts, please click here.

TOP TRENDS IDENTIFIED IN THE REPORT:

As AI uptake soars in 2026, energy supply and sustainability commitments face a breaking point. S&P Global Energy Horizon's high growth view shows global datacenter power demand increasing 17% to 2026 and 14% per year through 2030, reaching potential demand of over 2,200 TWh, equivalent to India's current electricity use. This surge is testing grid limits and sustainability goals, with 38% of assessed companies with datacenter operations lacking net-zero commitments. Major tech firms including Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are exploring new options to reconcile their power needs without compromising on their climate targets as aggregate US datacenter capital spending approaches $500 billion in 2026.

Solar growth peaks (for now): first annual slowdown in renewables additions in 2026. China's annual additions will fall from roughly 300 GW in 2025 to about 200 GW in 2026, triggered by a major policy shift from guaranteed pricing to competitive bidding. With China accounting for 50% of global additions over the past decade, this slowdown will have a deep impact. For the first time ever, new global solar installations are expected to decline year-on-year, albeit by less than 10%, as emerging markets take up some of the slack Despite this contraction, cumulative PV capacity is still expected to double over the next five years, supported by emerging markets and continued innovation, including faster deployment of battery energy storage. 

Grid modernization becomes a key energy security, transition and competitiveness constraint. Decades of underinvestment have created a critical bottleneck as the world races to electrify and decarbonize. With 40% of EU grids over 40 years old, the European Commission estimates €584 billion in grid capital expenditure is needed by 2030 to support decarbonization. The US faces potential limitations on the ability to deliver needed power without investment to support explosive AI-driven datacenter growth, making grid modernization a national competitiveness issue. 

Flexible Power Purchase Agreements become the new standard as price volatility reshapes how risks are managed. Increasing renewable capacity is leading to more zero- and negatively priced settlements, driving the evolution from traditional PPAs to complex hybrid structures that integrate multiple technologies and storage. The market is moving toward shorter contract terms and stronger downside protections as extreme price swings become more visible, particularly in Europe where PPA indices remain well below cost-based levels. Datacenters account for 27 gigawatts (GW), or 43% of total corporate power procurement in 2025 through October, continuing as a leading sector for clean energy procurement. 

As the rest of the world slows down to consider, China gets serious about green hydrogen. Chinese projects will install about 1.5 GW of electrolyzers in 2025, nearly doubling the 1.7 GW installed globally at end-2024, with deployment projected to reach 4.5 GW in 2026. Electrolyzer stack prices have plunged from $250 per kilowatt (/kW) in early 2024 to under $100/kW due to oversupply and fierce competition. Unlike solar and batteries, Chinese firms aim to export energy as well as technology, with at least two Chinese green ammonia plants receiving EU certification for clean molecule exports, with indications of prices as low as $600 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis (FOB).

Global SAF capacity expands by one third in 2026—Asia leads, Europe pays. Global dedicated sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity is expected to rise by about one third to eight million metric tons (MMt), though the speed of growth slows compared to the near doubling seen annually from 2022 to 2025. More than half of global SAF capacity will be concentrated in Asia despite modest regional demand, as producers target a European market facing supply shortfalls. Beyond 2026, capacity could increase eightfold to 42 MMt by 2030 if announced projects materialize, though only 7.3 MMt have reached final investment decision. 

EV uptake continues as China has shown that EVs can be price-competitive with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. China appears on track to become the first major "EV majority" market globally, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) representing about 50% of new light vehicle sales in the first three quarters of 2025. Europe shows renewed growth due to stricter CO2 standards, while the US faces its first test of organic consumer demand without tailwinds of federal EV tax credits in 2026. Emerging markets including Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, Nigeria and Malaysia are identified as relatively ripe for Chinese EV adoption. 

Global trade and climate policy is increasingly focused on harmonizing emissions reporting. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) takes effect January 1st, 2026, requiring accountability for carbon intensity of imported goods, while major revisions are proposed for the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol standard. Potential proliferation of carbon border adjustment mechanisms requires companies to report different emissions to different regulators, complicating global trade. The harmonization of product-level carbon accounting is increasingly seen as prerequisite for markets to differentiate products based on carbon intensity. 

China leverages global clean energy leadership and further expands influence. China has consolidated its leadership in clean energy deployment, technologies and supply chains. With overall cleantech spending growing 30% over the next five years while upstream spending is expected to remain constant, new global energy investment is shifting eastward. Meanwhile, the US is adopting a more interventionist industrial strategy, featuring greater government involvement through equity stakes and targeted support for technologies like nuclear and advanced geothermal. Diplomatically, China continues active climate participation while the US challenges multilateral efforts, creating additional space for China to expand global influence. 

As emissions could drive a 2.3°C rise by 2040, adaptation shifts from optional to essential in 2026. Extreme weather and climate hazards are creating escalating risks for infrastructure, physical assets, and operations. S&P Global Energy Horizons projects annual climate-related costs of ~$885 billion for large publicly traded companies in the 2030s. Climate risk assessments and adaptation planning show patchy uptake across sectors, with an evident adaptation gap even in industries where risk assessment is more common. The increasingly urgent question is no longer whether companies will adapt, but how quickly.

Media Contacts
Americas/EMEA: Kathleen Tanzy + 1 917-331-4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com
Asia/EMEA: Melissa Tan + 65-6597-6241, melissa.tan@spglobal.com

About S&P Global Energy
At S&P Global Energy (formerly S&P Global Commodity Insights), our comprehensive view of global energy and commodities markets enables our customers to make superior decisions and create long-term, sustainable value. Our four core capabilities are: Platts for pricing and news; CERA for research and advisory; Horizons for energy expansion and sustainability solutions; and Events for industry collaboration. 

S&P Global Energy is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global enables businesses, governments, and individuals with trusted data, expertise, and technology to make decisions with conviction. We are Advancing Essential Intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data, and insights that customers need in order to plan confidently, act decisively, and thrive economically in a rapidly changing global landscape. Learn more at www.spglobal.com/energy.

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SOURCE S&P Global Energy

FAQ

How much will global datacenter power demand increase by 2026 according to S&P Global Energy (SPGI)?

S&P Global Energy projects datacenter power demand will increase 17% to 2026, then ~14%/yr through 2030.

What causes the drop in global solar installations for 2026 and how will it affect SPGI outlook?

China's policy shift from guaranteed pricing to competitive bidding reduces its annual additions from ~300 GW (2025) to ~200 GW (2026), driving a global annual solar slowdown of <10%.

What grid investment does S&P Global Energy say Europe needs by 2030 (SPGI)?

The report cites an estimated €584 billion in grid capital expenditure needed in Europe by 2030 to support decarbonization.

How large is US datacenter capital spending expected to be in 2026 in the SPGI report?

Aggregate US datacenter capital spending is expected to approach $500 billion in 2026.

What are the 2026 projections for green hydrogen electrolyzer deployment and prices (SPGI)?

Electrolyzer deployment is projected to reach 4.5 GW in 2026, with stack prices falling to under $100/kW.

When does the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) take effect and why does it matter?

CBAM takes effect on January 1, 2026, increasing accountability for carbon intensity of imports and complicating global emissions reporting.