S&P Global Market Intelligence expects 2024 election outcomes and multidimensional risk factors to define global landscape next year

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Market Intelligence has released a new report, 'Power Plays in 2025', outlining four key themes that will shape global political and economic relationships in 2025. The report identifies economic angst, domestic discontent, elusive alliances, and trade troubles as major factors affecting markets.

The analysis suggests that while global economic expansion is expected to continue, led by emerging markets, multiple risks including structural challenges and geopolitical issues could impede growth. The report highlights concerns about domestic instability, protectionist measures, and fragmented trade environments that may lead to higher consumer prices and increased inflationary pressures.

Positive

• Expected continued global economic expansion, particularly in emerging markets across Asia Pacific, Latin America and Central Europe

Negative

• Multiple structural economic challenges threatening global expansion
• Rising domestic instability across various countries
• Increasing protectionist measures likely to fragment global trade
• Higher consumer prices and inflationary pressures expected
• Supply chain complications due to ongoing global conflicts

News Market Reaction

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On the day this news was published, SPGI declined 1.22%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Latent and persistent conflicts, domestic instability, economic rivalries and trade protectionism will continue to shape markets in 2025

NEW YORK, Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Protectionist measures, the continuation of unresolved conflicts and fragmented domestic coalitions are expected to result in economic uncertainty and the redefinition of international relationships and trade dynamics next year, according to a new S&P Global Market Intelligence report released today. In the report, Power Plays in 2025, S&P Global Market Intelligence's economic, geopolitical risk and supply chain analysts identify the four interconnected themes that will drive global political and economic relationships in 2025: economic angst, domestic discontent, elusive alliances and trade troubles.

"The interplay of geopolitical rivalries, economic shifts and evolving trade relations will define the conflicted global landscape in 2025," said Natznet Tesfay, Head of Insights & Analysis, Global Intelligence and Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Trends observed in 2024, such as the reconfiguration of logistics and the ongoing ramifications of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, will persist, complicating supply chains and market stability. The election mega-cycle results of 2024 ushered in a new class of legislators and regulators. The fragility of governments and the rise of unstable coalitions in various regions will further contribute to an unpredictable environment."

S&P Global Market Intelligence identified the defining geopolitical and global macroeconomic themes next year as:

• Economic angst: While S&P Global Market Intelligence expects the global economic expansion to continue, led by emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Central Europe, multiple risks—including structural economic challenges and increased uncertainty stemming from geopolitical issues—could derail a global economic expansion.
  
  
• Domestic discontent: Several countries may struggle to combat growing domestic instability characterized by economic inequality, technological disruptions and political polarization which are eroding traditional social contracts between governments and citizens, leading to increased discontent.
  
  
• Elusive alliances: The evolving geopolitical landscape, increasingly characterized by fluid alliances and strategic recalibrations among nations, will continue to drive both collaboration and competition as countries prioritize national security and protectionism.
  
  
• Trade troubles: The trend of protectionist measures including the use of tariffs and export restrictions to protect domestic industries is likely to fragment the global trade environment, complicating supply chains and international relations while contributing to higher prices for consumers and exacerbating inflationary pressures.

To request a copy of Power Plays in 2025, please contact press.mi@spglobal.com.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's opinions, quotes, and credit-related and other analyses are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security.

About S&P Global Market Intelligence
At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we understand the importance of accurate, deep and insightful information. Our team of experts delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction.

S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence.

Media Contact
Kate Smith
S&P Global Market Intelligence 
+1 781 301 9311
Katherine.smith@spglobal.com or press.mi@spglobal.com 

 

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SOURCE S&P Global Market Intelligence

FAQ

What are the four main themes identified by S&P Global (SPGI) for 2025?

S&P Global Market Intelligence identified economic angst, domestic discontent, elusive alliances, and trade troubles as the four main themes that will shape global political and economic relationships in 2025.

How will protectionist measures impact markets in 2025 according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, protectionist measures including tariffs and export restrictions will fragment the global trade environment, complicate supply chains, and contribute to higher consumer prices and inflationary pressures.

Which regions are expected to lead global economic expansion in 2025 according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Central Europe are expected to lead the global economic expansion in 2025.