S&P Global Market Intelligence's Annual Private Equity and Venture Capital Outlook Indicates Optimism Amid Macroeconomic Caution

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S&P Global Market Intelligence's 2025 Private Equity and Venture Capital Outlook reveals a positive industry sentiment despite macroeconomic challenges. The survey shows 71% of private equity GPs and 67% of venture capital GPs are more optimistic about the deal environment compared to last year.

Key findings include: improved fundraising conditions with 44% of PE and 73% of VC GPs showing increased optimism; expanding retail investor access with over two-thirds of GPs offering or planning to offer opportunities to non-institutional investors; and significant GenAI adoption in investment workflows, particularly in due diligence (31%), valuation analysis (23%), and deal sourcing (22%).

Notable concerns include: 56% of LPs believing portfolio company valuations are too high, 73% of LPs worried about higher interest rates impacting PE returns, and 75% of LPs expressing skepticism about GP-led secondaries due to potential conflicts of interest.

Positive

• 71% of PE GPs and 67% of VC GPs more optimistic about deal environment
• Improved fundraising outlook with 44% PE and 73% VC GPs more optimistic
• 52% of LPs expect PE to provide largest returns in 2025, up from 39%
• 79% of LPs participate in at least one co-investment deal annually
• Expanding retail investor access with over two-thirds of GPs offering opportunities

Negative

• 73% of LPs concerned about negative impact of high interest rates on PE returns
• 56% of LPs believe portfolio valuations are too high and need adjustment
• 75% of LPs skeptical about GP-led secondaries due to conflict of interest concerns
• 46% PE and 40% VC GPs worried about macroeconomic environment impact

Annual survey reveals increasing retail investor access and GenAI playing a larger role in investment workflows

NEW YORK, April 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The private equity and venture capital industries are optimistic as deal activity and fundraising is improving, despite caution about the macroeconomic environment, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence 2025 Private Equity and Venture Capital Outlook.

According to the annual survey, 71% of general partners (GPs) are more optimistic about the private equity deal environment than they were a year ago, with 67% of venture capital GPs sharing a similar outlook, and limited partners (LPs) are bullish on private equity returns in 2025. Survey respondents also anticipated that generative AI technology will be applied across the investment workflow, including due diligence, valuation analysis, deal sourcing, research and administrative tasks.

"While the macroeconomic landscape presents challenges, the overall sentiment within the private equity and venture capital sectors is one of cautious optimism," said Dylan Thomas, lead author for the report, at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "In addition, expanding into the retail channel is a focus for both private equity and venture capital firms, with more than two-thirds of surveyed GPs either currently offering or considering access to retail investors."

Key highlights from the 2025 Private Equity and Venture Capital outlook:

• Optimism in deal environment: 71% of GPs are more optimistic about the private equity deal environment than they were a year ago, with 67% of venture capital GPs sharing a similar outlook.
• Improved fundraising conditions: Fundraising outlooks have improved, with 44% of private equity and 73% of venture capital GPs more optimistic about conditions compared to last year.
• Retail investor access: Retail investors are gaining access, and over two thirds of surveyed GPs offer or plan to offer opportunities to non-institutional investors.
• GenAI applications: Considering where in the investment process generative AI technology is most likely to be helpful, 31% of private equity and venture capital respondents say due diligence. Smaller shares vote for valuation analysis (23%) and deal sourcing (22%).
• Macroeconomic influences: A significant share of GPs (46% for private equity and 40% for venture capital) identified the macroeconomic environment, including factors such as interest rates and inflation, as the primary influence on private markets deal activity in 2025.
• Private equity returns: LPs surveyed are bullish on private equity returns in 2025, with 52% highlighting PE as the single asset class likely to provide the largest returns this year, up from 39% a year ago.
• Co-investment activity: 79% of LPs reported participating in at least one co-investment deal annually, with over half (54%) completing between one to five co-investment deals each year.
• Valuation concerns: 56% of LPs think portfolio company valuations are too high and due for an adjustment.
• Interest rate impacts: Private equity returns may falter in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, with 73% of LPs saying these rates will be a drag on future private equity returns.
• Skepticism of GP-led secondaries: A majority of LPs (75%) are skeptical when it comes to GP-led secondaries and fund-level financing, citing concerns of potential conflicts of interest.
• ESG considerations: Only 4% of LPs ranked ESG a top priority when evaluating potential fund investments.

The S&P Global Market Intelligence Private Equity and Venture Capital Outlook surveyed more than 100 global private equity, venture capital and limited partner respondents across North America, Latin America, Asia Pacific, Middle Eastern and Africa regions. The survey was fielded between November 2024 and January 2025 covering questions on deal activity, strategy changes, market and firm-level challenges, sustainability consideration and technology adoptions.

To request a copy of the 2025 Private Equity and Venture Capital Outlook, please contact press.mi@spglobal.com. 

S&P Global Market Intelligence's opinions, quotes, and credit-related and other analyses are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security.

About S&P Global Market Intelligence
At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we understand the importance of accurate, deep and insightful information. Our team of experts delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction.

S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence.

Media Contact:

Amanda Oey
S&P Global Market Intelligence
P. +1 212-438-1904
E. amanda.oey@spglobal.com or press.mi@spsglobal.com 

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SOURCE S&P Global Market Intelligence

FAQ

What percentage of GPs are optimistic about private equity deals in 2025 according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

71% of private equity GPs are more optimistic about the deal environment than they were a year ago, according to SPGI's 2025 outlook survey.

How are Partners viewing private equity returns for 2025 in SPGI's survey?

52% of LPs identified private equity as the asset class likely to provide the largest returns in 2025, up from 39% the previous year.

What is the impact of high interest rates on PE returns according to SPGI's 2025 outlook?

73% of Partners believe higher-for-longer interest rates will negatively impact future private equity returns.

How are venture capital firms implementing GenAI according to SPGI's 2025 survey?

31% of firms are implementing GenAI in due diligence, 23% in valuation analysis, and 22% in deal sourcing.

What percentage of LPs are concerned about portfolio valuations in SPGI's 2025 outlook?

56% of Partners believe portfolio company valuations are too high and due for an adjustment.