S&P Global Mobility: U.S. auto sales volume to hold steady in October

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Mobility forecasts U.S. light vehicle sales of 1.315 million units in October 2024, representing an 11% year-over-year growth. The seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) is expected to reach 15.9 million units, one of the year's strongest performances. Retail advertised inventory hit a record 3 million units in September, up 4.7% from August. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share has maintained above 8% since June, with September exceeding 9%. The market anticipates new BEV launches, including the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, despite challenges from high interest rates and vehicle prices.

Positive

• 11% year-over-year sales growth in October
• Strong SAAR of 15.9 million units
• Record inventory levels reaching 3 million units
• BEV market share consistently above 8%, reaching 9% in September
• Expanding BEV product lineup with new model launches

Negative

• High interest rates continuing to pressure consumers
• Elevated vehicle prices affecting affordability

News Market Reaction – SPGI

-0.69%

-0.69% Session move

In the trading session that priced this news, SPGI declined 0.69%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

See more from StockTitan in Google Search and AI answers. Adds StockTitan as a preferred source · opens Google

Add on Google Not now

New vehicle sales levels in October remain unchanged from the ongoing trend

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Oct. 28, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On a volume estimate of 1.315 million units, S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. light vehicle sales in October to realize year-over-year growth of 11%.  While the volume improvement can be attributed to two additional selling days in the month compared to last year, this result would translate to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units, one of the better results for the SAAR metric this year.

As we begin the final quarter, there's potential that automakers will look to provide additional support for consumers

"As we begin the final quarter of the calendar year, there's potential that automakers will look to provide some additional support for consumers," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "This would be warmly received by new vehicle shoppers who continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments."

Support from advancing inventories also provides some signals that auto sales could develop further to close out the year.

According to S&P Global Mobility Retail Advertised Inventory data, retail advertised inventory in the U.S. soared to just over 3 million units in September 2024. "This is a significant 4.7% increase from the previous month and breaking the three-million mark for the first time in our dataset," said Matt Trommer, associate director at S&P Global Mobility. "This surge aligns with a broader trend we've observed over the past two years, where inventory levels consistently rise in the fall."

US Light Vehicle Sales
		Oct 24 (Est)	Sep 24	Oct 23
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,315,000	1,169,908	1,198,162
	In millions, SAAR	15.9	15.8	15.3
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	12.9	12.8	12.3
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	3.0	3.0	3.0
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% every month since June, certainly reflecting progress from levels earlier in the year. September BEV share was estimated to reach above 9% and we expect October BEV sales to remain above that level again. Assisted by the sustained roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue and to be followed by new BEVs such as the Polestar 3, Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the fourth quarter, electric vehicle sales are expected to advance over the remainder of the year.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-global-mobility--us-auto-sales-volume-to-hold-steady-in-october-302288869.html

SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is the projected U.S. auto sales volume for October 2024?

S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) projects U.S. auto sales volume of 1.315 million units for October 2024, representing an 11% year-over-year increase.

What is the current BEV market share in U.S. auto sales?

According to S&P Global Mobility (SPGI), BEV market share has been consistently above 8% since June 2024, with September reaching above 9%.

How much did U.S. retail advertised auto inventory increase in September 2024?

S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) reports that U.S. retail advertised inventory increased by 4.7% in September 2024, surpassing 3 million units for the first time.

What is the projected SAAR for U.S. auto sales in October 2024?

S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) forecasts a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.9 million units for October 2024.