S&P Global Research Reveals Data Center Investments Moving The U.S. Macro Needle

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global (SPGI) research dated Nov 6, 2025 finds data center and AI-related investments accounted for 80% of U.S. private domestic demand growth in H1 2025. The study says the U.S. holds >40% of global data center capacity and that AI-related business investment has surged, offsetting weakness in other private investment despite higher borrowing costs and policy uncertainty. The research highlights early productivity gains, distributional consequences, and a broader capital expenditure shift toward more manufacturing-style capex. The full journal, Look Forward: Data Center Frontiers, publishes December 2025.

Positive

• 80% of private domestic demand growth attributable to data center investment in H1 2025
• U.S. holds >40% of global data center capacity
• AI-related business investment offset broader private investment weakness in H1 2025

Negative

• Higher borrowing costs and policy uncertainty weighed on private investment generally
• AI-driven growth will raise distribution issues and produce uneven effects

Insights

Macro economist

S&P Global finds data center and AI investment drove 80% of U.S. private demand growth in the first half of 2025.

Data center and related technology spending — including construction, equipment, software, and R&D — now shifts capital allocation toward heavy, long‑lived assets. That change increases measured private domestic demand growth because large, lumpy capex projects raise aggregate spending and output more than traditional light‑capex digital models.

Growth depends on sustained investment flows, financing conditions, and execution across construction, power, and equipment supply chains; rising borrowing costs or policy uncertainty could slow deployments. The research also notes uneven distributional effects, implying gains concentrate where facilities, power, and skilled labor cluster.

Watch concrete, monitorable items: the pace of data center builds and power projects, changes in corporate capex guidance, and S&P Global’s full Look Forward journal in December 2025. Near‑term signals (quarters) will reveal whether the observed early productivity gains widen beyond localized pockets.

• Data center and AI-related investments account for 80% of U.S. private domestic demand growth in the first half of 2025. 
  
  
• These investments include data center and power construction, information processing equipment, software, and research and development. 
  
  
• Preliminary research highlights early productivity gains amid labor market shifts. 

NEW YORK, Nov. 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global released new economic research today showing that data center and related technology investments have become a dominant contributor to U.S. economic growth. Estimates indicate these activities accounted for 80% of the increase in final private domestic demand during the first half of 2025. 

Key topics explored in the research, "Data Center Investments Are Increasingly Moving The Macro Needle," include: 

• Data center investment: While the AI race is global, the U.S. leads in data center capacity, accounting for over 40% of the global total, a share that S&P Global 451 Research expects to increase. 

• Moving the macroeconomic needle and driving growth: Even as higher borrowing costs and policy uncertainty have weighed on private investment generally, business investment related to AI has surged and is offsetting weakness in other areas and the economy at large. 

• Sustained growth and forecast: The AI revolution, including ongoing data center investment and potential larger macroeconomic payoff down the road, will inevitably raise distribution issues. The technology holds great promise, but its effects will not be uniform. 

"The data center boom powering the AI revolution is clearly moving the macro needle, especially in the U.S.," said PaulGruenwald, Global Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings and member of the S&P Global Look Forward Council. "This goes well beyond physical construction. We're seeing a fundamental shift in how technology companies invest, with their capital expenditure footprint now resembling traditional manufacturing rather than the historically light capex model." 

This article is part of S&P Global's upcoming research journal, Look Forward: Data Center Frontiers, publishing in December 2025. The full journal will deliver a global perspective on AI-driven data center growth, with future-focused insights on sector economics, energy resources, financing, geopolitics, and technological advancements. 

The S&P Global Look Forward Council brings together leading experts from across the organization to deliver research that illuminates long-term trends and transformative market shifts. Covering areas from capital and commodity markets to energy and sustainability, the Council provides the forward-looking intelligence S&P Global clients need to navigate uncertainty and make confident, informed decisions.

Data Center Investments Are Increasingly Moving The Macro Needle: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/data-center-investment-moves-macro-needle

Explore All Look Forward Research: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward

Media Contact: 

Orla O'Brien
S&P Global
+1 857-407-8559
orla.obrien@spglobal.com 

About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through sustainability and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. 

We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. 

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SOURCE S&P Global

FAQ

What did S&P Global report about SPGI on November 6, 2025 regarding data center investment?

S&P Global reported that data center and AI-related investments made up 80% of U.S. private domestic demand growth in H1 2025.

How much global data center capacity does the U.S. hold according to SPGI research?

The research states the U.S. accounts for more than 40% of global data center capacity.

What does the SPGI research say about AI investment and broader private investment trends in H1 2025?

It says AI-related business investment surged and offset weakness in other private investment despite higher borrowing costs.

When will the full S&P Global journal on data centers be published?

The full Look Forward: Data Center Frontiers journal is scheduled for December 2025.

Does the SPGI research mention economic or social risks from data center growth?

Yes; the research notes the AI-driven expansion will raise distribution issues and produce uneven effects across the economy.

Where can investors read the S&P Global research on data center investments (SPGI)?

The research is available via S&P Global's Look Forward research pages, with the data center report linked on the S&P Global website.