SASOL LIMITED: TRADING STATEMENT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2025

Rhea-AI Summary

Sasol (NYSE:SSL) issued a trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2025. EPS is expected to be between R0,10 and R0,80 (prior R7,22), a decline of 89%–99%. HEPS is expected between R8,50 and R10,00 (prior R14,13), a decline of 29%–40%. Adjusted EBITDA is guided at R19–R23 billion (prior R24 billion).

Drivers: lower Brent and chemicals prices, impairments totalling R7,8 billion, partly offset by >100% higher refining margins, 3% higher sales volumes and lower capital expenditure supporting improved free cash flow. Interim results will be presented on 23 February 2026.

Positive

• Refining margin >100% increase
• Sales volumes +3% supported by operations
• Improved free cash flow from lower capital expenditure
• Adjusted EBITDA still R19–R23 billion

Negative

• EPS down 89%–99% to R0,10–R0,80
• HEPS down 29%–40% to R8,50–R10,00
• Impairments of R7,8 billion before tax
• Secunda refinery costs R3 billion fully impaired
• Mozambique PSA impairment of R3,9 billion

Key Figures

EPS guidance: R0.10–R0.80 per share HEPS guidance: R8.50–R10.00 per share Adjusted EBITDA guidance: R19–R23 billion +5 more

8 metrics

EPS guidance R0.10–R0.80 per share Six months ended 31 Dec 2025 vs prior period EPS R7.22; 89%–99% decrease

HEPS guidance R8.50–R10.00 per share Six months ended 31 Dec 2025 vs prior period HEPS R14.13; 29%–40% decrease

Adjusted EBITDA guidance R19–R23 billion Six months ended 31 Dec 2025 vs prior adjusted EBITDA R24 billion; 4%–21% decrease

Brent price decline 17% decrease Average Rand per barrel Brent crude oil price vs prior period

Chemicals basket price 3% decrease Average US$ per ton chemicals basket price vs prior period

Impairments current period R7.8 billion (before tax) Impairments vs R5.7 billion in prior period

Secunda capex impaired R3 billion Costs capitalised in Secunda liquid fuels refinery CGU fully impaired

Mozambique PSA impairment R3.9 billion Impairment of Production Sharing Agreement development in Mozambique

Market Reality Check

Price: $7.29 Vol: Volume 2,323,761 is at 1....

normal vol

$7.29 Last Close

Volume Volume 2,323,761 is at 1.31x its 20-day average of 1,777,664, indicating elevated interest ahead of results. normal

Technical Price $7.29 trades above 200-day MA at $5.73 and is 4.83% below the 52-week high of $7.66, far above the $2.78 52-week low.

Peers on Argus

SSL was modestly positive pre-announcement (+1.39%) while key Specialty Chemical...

SSL was modestly positive pre-announcement (+1.39%) while key Specialty Chemicals peers like CBT (+5.33%), AVNT (+3.54%), FUL (+4.14%), BCPC (+1.29%) and SXT (+0.66%) also traded higher. However, the momentum scanner did not flag a coordinated sector move, suggesting the trading statement remains a company-specific catalyst.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jan 22 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Jan 22	Operational metrics update	Positive	+11.7%	Detailed six‑month business performance metrics and operational milestones update.
Jan 21	Board change	Positive	+0.2%	Appointment of an experienced independent non‑executive director to the board.
Nov 17	AGM results	Positive	+1.3%	All AGM resolutions passed, including director appointments and share repurchase authority.
Oct 23	Quarterly metrics	Neutral	+17.6%	Quarterly business metrics with operational improvements and updated guidance ranges.
Oct 16	AGM notice	Neutral	-0.8%	Notice and logistics for upcoming AGM and clarification on incentive metric.

Pattern Detected

Recent history shows strong positive reactions to operational and performance updates, with prior business metrics releases prompting double-digit gains, indicating investors have rewarded operational progress.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, Sasol released several operational and corporate updates. Business performance metrics on Oct 23, 2025 and Jan 22, 2026 highlighted improved Southern Africa operations, Natref boiler additions, and new initiatives like an electricity trading license, with shares rising 17.57% and 11.73% respectively. Governance developments, including a new independent director on Jan 21, 2026, and AGM-related notices and results in October–November 2025 had smaller price effects. Today’s trading statement adds a clearly weaker earnings outlook into this trajectory.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights a sharp deterioration in profitability, with EPS and HEPS down as much ...

Analysis

This announcement highlights a sharp deterioration in profitability, with EPS and HEPS down as much as 99% and 40% respectively and impairments totaling R7.8 billion. At the same time, management points to improving free cash flow, higher sales volumes and cost discipline. Investors may track the Feb 23, 2026 interim results, production trends, and further updates on the Mozambique PSA and Secunda assets.

Key Terms

earnings per share (eps), adjusted ebita, international financial reporting standards, form 20-f, +1 more

5 terms

earnings per share (eps) financial

"Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be between R0,10 and R0,80 per share"

Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s net profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock, calculated by dividing profit after expenses by the number of shares. Investors use EPS to gauge how much profit each share represents — like measuring how big a slice of a pie each shareholder gets — and compare profitability across companies or over time; higher or rising EPS often supports stronger stock valuations while falling EPS can signal concern.

adjusted ebita financial

"Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (adjusted EBITDA*) is expected"

Adjusted EBITA is a measure of a company’s operating profit before interest, taxes and amortization, further modified to remove one-time or unusual items so it reflects ongoing business earnings. It matters to investors because it aims to show the company’s core cash-making ability — like listening to an engine without road noise — making comparisons across periods or peers easier, though companies may differ in what they exclude.

international financial reporting standards regulatory

"Adjusted EBITDA is not a defined term under International Financial Reporting Standards"

International Financial Reporting Standards are a common set of accounting rules used by companies in many countries to prepare and present their financial statements. They matter to investors because they make results easier to compare across borders — like using the same measuring tape — so investors can assess profitability, cash flow and risk more reliably and spot differences that come from business performance rather than differing accounting methods.

form 20-f regulatory

"in our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed on 29 August 2025"

Form 20-F is the standardized annual disclosure that non-U.S. companies must file with the U.S. securities regulator when their shares are traded in the U.S.; it contains audited financial statements, a plain-language description of the business, management discussion, governance details and key risk factors. It matters to investors because it provides a consistent, comparable company “report card” and rulebook, helping buyers assess financial health, governance and risks before investing.

forward-looking statements regulatory

"Disclaimer - Forward-looking statements Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements"

Forward-looking statements are predictions or plans that companies share about what they expect to happen in the future, like estimating sales or profits. They matter because they help investors understand a company's outlook, but since they are based on guesses and assumptions, they can sometimes be wrong.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

JOHANNESBURG, Feb. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- In terms of paragraph 3.4(b)(i) of the Listing Requirements of the JSE Limited (JSE) stakeholders are advised that, for the six months ended 31 December 2025:

• Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be between R0,10 and R0,80 per share (prior period EPS of R7,22), a decrease of 89% to 99% compared to the prior period;
• Headline earnings per share (HEPS) is expected to be between R8,50 and R10,00 per share (prior period HEPS of R14,13), a decrease of 29% to 40% compared to the prior period; and
• Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (adjusted EBITDA*) is expected to be between R19 billion and R23 billion (prior period adjusted EBITDA of R24 billion), a decrease of 4% to 21% compared to the prior period.

The decrease in earnings for the period was mainly driven by:

• a 17% decline in the average Rand per barrel Brent crude oil price;
• a 3% decrease in the average US$ per ton chemicals basket price; and
• impairments of R7,8 billion (before tax) (summary below), compared to R5,7 billion in the prior period.

The decrease in earnings was partially offset by:

• a >100% increase in refining margin following improved fuel differentials;
• ­a 3% increase in sales volumes supported by the improved operational performance, as detailed in the Business Performance Metrics published on 22 January 2026: https://www.sasol.com/index.php/investor-centre/financial-results; and
• a reduction in costs driven by disciplined cost management.

Overall free cash flow generation is expected to improve compared to the prior period despite the lower earnings, due to lower capital expenditure.

Summary of significant impairments in the current period:

• The Secunda liquid fuels refinery cash generating unit (CGU) remains fully impaired. The full amount of costs capitalised during the current period of R3 billion have been impaired; and
• Impairment of our Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) development in Mozambique of R3,9 billion. While the total quantum of gas remains unchanged, a revision of the expected production profile has resulted in a deferral of gas monetisation. The strengthening of the Rand against the US Dollar also contributed to the impairment.

The financial information underpinning this trading statement has not been reviewed and reported on by the Company's external auditors.

Sasol will present its 2026 interim financial results on Monday, 23 February 2026 at 11h00 (SA time). This will be followed by a market call, hosted by President and Chief Executive Officer, Simon Baloyi, and Chief Financial Officer, Walt Bruns, to address questions.

Please connect to the call via the webcast link:
https://www.corpcam.com/Sasol23022026
or via teleconference call link:
https://services.choruscall.eu/DiamondPassRegistration/register?confirmationNumber=3605690&linkSecurityString=89ae33f44

* Adjusted EBITDA is calculated by adjusting operating profit for depreciation, amortisation, share-based payments, remeasurement items, change in discount rates of our rehabilitation provisions, all unrealised translation gains and losses, and all unrealised gains and losses on our derivatives and hedging activities.

Adjusted EBITDA is not a defined term under International Financial Reporting Standards and may not be comparable with similarly titled measures reported by other companies. The aforementioned adjustments are the responsibility of the directors of Sasol. The adjustments have been prepared for illustrative purposes only and due to their nature, may not fairly present Sasol´s financial position, changes in equity, results of operations or cash flows.

For further information, please contact:

Sasol Investor Relations,
Tiffany Sydow, VP Investor Relations
Telephone: +27-(0)-71-673-1929
investor.relations@sasol.com 

Disclaimer - Forward-looking statements

Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements that are not historical facts, based on management's current views and assumptions, and which are conditioned upon and also involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those anticipated by such statements. Should one or more of these risks materialise, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the capital cost of our projects and the timing of project milestones; our ability to obtain financing to meet the funding requirements of our capital investment programme, as well as to fund our ongoing business activities and to pay dividends; statements regarding our future results of operations and financial condition, and regarding future economic performance including cost containment, cash conservation programmes and business optimisation initiatives;  our business strategy, performance outlook, plans, objectives or goals; statements regarding future competition, volume growth and changes in market share in the industries and markets for our products; our existing or anticipated investments, acquisitions of new businesses or the disposal of existing businesses, including estimates or projection of internal rates of return and future profitability; our estimated oil, gas and coal reserves; the probable future outcome of litigation, legislative, regulatory and fiscal developments, including statements regarding our ability to comply with future laws and regulations; future fluctuations in refining margins and crude oil, natural gas and petroleum and chemical product prices; the demand, pricing and cyclicality of oil, gas and petrochemical products; changes in the fuel and gas pricing mechanisms in South Africa and their effects on costs and product prices, statements regarding future fluctuations in exchange and interest rates and changes in credit ratings; assumptions relating to macroeconomics, including changes in trade policies, tariffs and sanction regimes; the impact of climate change, our development of sustainability within our businesses, our energy efficiency improvement, carbon and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, our net zero carbon emissions ambition and future low-carbon initiatives, including relating to green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel;  our estimated carbon tax liability; cyber security; and statements of assumptions underlying such statements.

Words such as "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "intend", "seek", "will", "plan", "could", "may", "endeavour", "target", "forecast" and "project" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and there are risks that the predictions, forecasts, projections, and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. These risks and uncertainties are discussed more fully in our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed on 29 August 2025 and in other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The list of factors discussed therein is not exhaustive; when relying on forward-looking statements to make investment decisions, you should carefully consider both the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events, and you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements apply only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

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SOURCE Sasol Limited

FAQ

What EPS guidance did Sasol (SSL) give for the six months ended 31 December 2025?

EPS is expected between R0,10 and R0,80, a decline of 89%–99%. According to the company, prior period EPS was R7,22, and the reduction reflects lower commodity prices and impairments.

How much is Sasol's adjusted EBITDA guidance for H1 FY2026 (31 December 2025)?

Adjusted EBITDA is expected between R19 billion and R23 billion. According to the company, this compares to prior period adjusted EBITDA of R24 billion and reflects weaker prices partly offset by refining margin gains.

What impairments did Sasol (SSL) report in the trading statement for Dec 31, 2025?

Total reported impairments were R7,8 billion before tax, including R3 billion on Secunda capitalised costs and R3,9 billion on the Mozambique PSA. According to the company, production profile revisions and FX contributed.

Will Sasol (SSL) release interim results and when can investors listen?

Sasol will present interim results on 23 February 2026 at 11:00 SA time. According to the company, a market call and webcast will follow led by the CEO and CFO to address investor questions.

What factors partially offset Sasol's earnings decline for H1 ending 31 December 2025?

Offsets included a >100% increase in refining margin, a 3% sales volume rise, and cost reductions. According to the company, operational improvements and disciplined cost management supported these offsets.