ASSEMBLY 'ELECTION OUTLOOK' REPORT: 2026 MIDTERMS PROJECTED TO BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE IN HISTORY

Rhea-AI Summary

Assembly (NASDAQ: STGW) projects a record $10.1 billion in political advertising for the 2025–2026 U.S. election cycle, a 15% increase versus 2022, making the 2026 midterms the most expensive in history. The Election Outlook Report from Assembly's Politics & Advocacy Practice warns political spend will compress commercial inventory, inflate costs in battleground markets, and shape consumer sentiment across channels. The report uses Assembly's proprietary Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII) and notes the practice has planned nearly $1 billion in political ads since 2019. The report is available at AssemblyGlobal.com/insights.

Positive

• Record market projection: $10.1B political ad spend for 2025–2026 (15% growth vs 2022)
• Proprietary tool: AMII offers unique market-level political saturation measurement
• Established practice: Politics & Advocacy Practice has planned/activated nearly $1B in political ads since 2019

Negative

• Higher media costs: Projected political spend will inflate CPMs and tighten inventory, especially in battleground TV markets
• Ad displacement risk: Local broadcast advertisers face increased competition and potential displacement during peak windows
• Brand risk: Political creative spillover may alter consumer sentiment and brand perceptions across channels

Insights

Advertising & Media Markets Strategist

Record political ad spend signals heavier demand for Assembly's services and likely commercial ad displacement; brands face higher costs and inventory risk.

Assembly's report states a projected $10.1 billion in political ad spend for the 2025–2026 U.S. cycle, a 15% increase versus the 2022 midterms, and highlights local broadcast as the largest recipient of those dollars. The release also describes Assembly's proprietary AMII index and cites the agency's Politics & Advocacy Practice having planned and activated nearly $1 billion since 2019. From the article alone, this news is material to media markets: a quantified, multi-billion dollar shift in demand that, per Assembly, will raise spot prices, tighten inventory in battleground windows, and influence consumer sentiment across channels. For the Stagwell network, the article frames a stronger market opportunity for in-house political capabilities and positions AMII as a differentiated product to sell planning services. For non-political advertisers the article signals operational actions explicitly: diversify channels, stress-test budgets, and reassess media partners to reduce exposure to political disruptions. The press release grounds its claims in a proprietary index and past activation volume rather than forward-looking financial commitments, so the facts reported support a business-opportunity narrative without disclosing revenue or client wins.

Concise implications drawn strictly from the article: (1) Media buyers should expect higher costs and constrained broadcast inventory in targeted windows; (2) Firms selling political planning and measurement, like Assembly within Stagwell, stand to see increased demand for services described; (3) AMII is presented as a commercial tool to quantify local political saturation and thus a revenue-positioning asset; (4) The release offers actionable, non-speculative mitigations for advertisers that echo industry practice language in the article.

Limitations: the article provides projections and positioning but no firm financial metrics, contract announcements, or quantified revenue impact for Stagwell. All statements here strictly restate or interpret claims explicitly made in the press release.

Insights from the only global omnichannel media agency with an in-house political practice predicts over $10B in political spending for the 2025-2026 cycle

NEW YORK, Oct. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Assembly, a leading media company part of the Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) challenger network, is projecting a record $10.1 billion in political advertising spend during the 2025–2026 U.S. election cycle–a 15% increase from the last midterm cycle in 2022–making it the most expensive midterms in history. The estimate come from Assembly's 2026 Election Outlook Report, released today by the agency's industry-leading Politics & Advocacy Practice, which handles planning, activation, and strategy for some of the most high-profile races and issue groups in the country.

The new report underscores that political ad spending will not only collide with commercial advertising but fundamentally reshape the media marketplace in 2026. Assembly highlights:

• Record-Breaking Spend: With political ad spending projected to surpass $10 billion, brands should prepare for inflated costs and tighter inventory, particularly in battleground markets and peak windows.
• Impact Beyond Politics: Political creative has consistently proven its power to shape consumer sentiment, often spilling over into brand perceptions. In 2026, this effect is expected to intensify, creating new challenges for advertisers across categories.
• Urgency for Action: Advertisers must take proactive, concrete steps now to safeguard campaigns. This includes diversifying channel strategies, stress-testing budgets, and/or reassessing media partners to reduce exposure to political disruptions and protect both brand safety and efficiency.

"Political media strategists are the original performance marketers: ruthlessly data-driven, hyper-targeted, and under extreme pressure to deliver results," said Tyler Goldberg, Director of Political Strategy at Assembly. "As we head into the 2026 midterms, the ad market will feel the ripple effects of billions in political spend flooding the system, more so than we have in previous years."

According to Assembly's Politics & Advocacy Practice, the type of campaign and media partners selected will play a decisive role in determining exposure to political disruption. Local broadcast television continues to attract the largest share of political ad dollars, meaning brands with significant broadcast investments should anticipate competition and displacement. By contrast, certain digital platforms that do not accept political advertising may offer partial insulation. However, no advertiser is entirely immune, as heightened political awareness continues to shape consumer sentiment across channels.

Goldberg adds, "Much like political spending itself, the risk to brand advertisers is not evenly distributed. Exposure depends on far more than when or where a campaign is live — it's about where, when, and how advertisers choose to show up. The right strategy and partners can make the difference between being swept up in the political cycle or staying resilient through it."

The Election Outlook Report was developed using Assembly's proprietary Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII), which measures levels of political saturation in local markets throughout the cycle. AMII is the industry's only tool designed to measure political saturation in local markets throughout an election cycle. AMII quantifies how escalating political ad spend impacts commercial campaigns, making it an essential resource for any advertiser navigating the complexities of election-year media.

Assembly's Politics & Advocacy Practice has planned and activated nearly $1 billion in political advertising since its inception in 2019.

The 2026 Election Outlook Report is available for download at AssemblyGlobal.com/insights.

ABOUT ASSEMBLY
Assembly is a leading global omnichannel media agency that combines data, talent, and technology to drive growth for the world's top brands. We connect powerful brand storytelling with a full range of media capabilities to deliver performance and meaningful business results. Powered by STAGE, our proprietary operating system, and a global team of 2,300 experts across 35 offices, we are committed to purposeful, impactful work. As part of Stagwell, the challenger network redefining marketing, Assembly continues to raise the bar for excellence in the industry.

PR Contact
Mariana Delacqua
Mariana.Delacqua@AssemblyGlobal.com

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SOURCE Assembly

FAQ

How much political ad spending does Assembly forecast for the 2025–2026 cycle for STGW?

Assembly forecasts $10.1 billion in political ad spending for the 2025–2026 U.S. election cycle, a 15% rise from 2022.

What does Assembly's $10.1B projection mean for advertisers and STGW in 2026?

Expect inflated media costs, tighter inventory in battlegrounds, and higher risk of campaign displacement—advertisers should diversify channels and stress-test budgets.

Which media channels will see the biggest impact from Assembly's 2026 election forecast (STGW)?

Local broadcast television will attract the largest share of political dollars and face the greatest competition and displacement risk.

What tool did Assembly use to produce the Election Outlook Report mentioned by STGW?

The report leverages the proprietary Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII), measuring political saturation in local markets.

How experienced is Assembly's Politics & Advocacy Practice in political advertising (STGW)?

The practice has planned and activated nearly $1 billion in political advertising since 2019.

What immediate actions does Assembly recommend to advertisers in light of the STGW report?

Diversify channel strategies, stress-test budgets, and reassess media partners to reduce exposure to political disruptions.