Steel Dynamics Provides Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Guidance
Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) provided fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share versus sequential Q3 2025 earnings of $2.74 and prior‑year Q4 2024 earnings of $1.36.
Rhea-AI Summary
Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) provided fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share versus sequential Q3 2025 earnings of $2.74 and prior‑year Q4 2024 earnings of $1.36. Management expects Q4 profitability to be meaningfully lower than Q3 due to lower average selling values and reduced volumes from seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages that cut flat rolled production by an estimated 140,000–150,000 tons. Indexed hot rolled steel prices fell by more than $70/ton from July to October 2025, lowering Q4 selling values on lagging contracts. Metals recycling and steel fabrication earnings are also expected to be lower sequentially. The company reported an estimated $200 million common stock repurchase (~1%) in Q4 and said its aluminum Columbus mill is commissioning with product qualifications. Q4 results will be released before the open on Jan 26, 2026 with an 11:00 a.m. ET conference call.
Positive
- Guidance $1.65–$1.69 per diluted share (Q4 2025)
- Earnings guidance up ~23% vs prior‑year Q4 ($1.36)
- Aluminum Columbus mill produced qualified can and automotive hot band
- Repurchased ~$200 million of common stock (~1%)
Negative
- Sequential EPS decline from $2.74 (Q3) to guidance midpoint (~39%)
- Planned outages reduced flat rolled output by 140,000–150,000 tons
- Indexed hot rolled steel prices fell >$70/ton July–October 2025
- Metals recycling earnings lower due to seasonal shipments and weaker pricing
Details
News Market Reaction – STLD
In the Dec 17 session, STLD gained 2.13%, reflecting a moderate positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
- Q4 2025 EPS guidance
- $1.65–$1.69 per diluted share
- Fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance range
- Q3 2025 EPS
- $2.74 per diluted share
- Sequential third quarter 2025 earnings
- Q4 2024 EPS
- $1.36 per diluted share
- Prior year fourth quarter earnings
- Outage impact
- 140,000–150,000 tons
- Estimated reduction in Q4 2025 flat rolled steel production
- HRC price change
- Over $70 per ton decrease
- Average published indexed hot rolled steel prices, Jul–Oct 2025
- Share repurchases Q4 2025
- $200 million (~1% of stock)
- Estimated repurchases so far during Q4 2025
- Earnings release date
- January 26, 2026, 11:00 a.m. EST
- Planned Q4 2025 earnings release and call timing
Historical Context
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Completed purchase of remaining 55% of key customer New Process Steel.
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Issued new notes and reopened 2035 notes to refinance 2026 debt.
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Appointed new head of metals recycling and OmniSource president.
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Declared $0.50 cash dividend for Q4 2025 with early January payment.
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Launched BIOEDGE and EDGE low-carbon steel product lines using EAF tech.
24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.
Key Terms
hot rolled steel technical
ferrous technical
nonferrous technical
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
Fourth quarter 2025 profitability from the company's steel operations is expected to be meaningfully lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower average realized selling values and lower volumes related to both seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages at the company's flat rolled steel mills. In addition to lower seasonal activity, some of the planned maintenance outages were longer in duration than originally anticipated and decreased volume in the fourth quarter 2025 by an estimated 140,000 to 150,000 tons of flat rolled steel production. Average published indexed hot rolled steel prices decreased over
Fourth quarter 2025 earnings from the company's metals recycling operations are expected to be lower than third quarter sequential results, based on lower seasonal shipments, as the domestic steel industry experienced a number of planned seasonal maintenance outages reducing ferrous scrap demand. Overall ferrous and nonferrous pricing also declined sequentially.
Fourth quarter 2025 earnings from the company's steel fabrication operations are expected to be lower than sequential third quarter results, based on seasonally lower shipments more than offsetting modest metal spread expansion, as average selling values were steady and steel raw material costs declined. The order backlog extends well into the second quarter 2026, with healthy pricing. Current order activity is steady with expectations for improved volumes in 2026, as interest rates decline and the support from the
The aluminum team is continuing with the successful commissioning and startup of the company's
The company has repurchased an estimated
The company currently plans to release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens on Monday, January 26, 2026, and will hold a conference call that same day at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time to discuss the company's performance.
About Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Steel Dynamics is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains some predictive statements about future events, including statements related to conditions in domestic or global economies, conditions in steel, aluminum, and recycled metals market places, Steel Dynamics' revenues, costs of purchased materials, future profitability and earnings, and the operation of new, existing or planned facilities. These statements, which we generally precede or accompany by such typical conditional words as "anticipate", "intend", "believe", "estimate", "plan", "seek", "project", or "expect", or by the words "may", "will", or "should", are intended to be made as "forward-looking", subject to many risks and uncertainties, within the safe harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements speak only as of this date and are based upon information and assumptions, which we consider reasonable as of this date, concerning our businesses and the environments in which they operate. Such predictive statements are not guarantees of future performance, and we undertake no duty to update or revise any such statements. Some factors that could cause such forward-looking statements to turn out differently than anticipated include: (1) domestic and global economic factors; (2) global steelmaking overcapacity and imports of steel, together with increased scrap prices; (3) pandemics, epidemics, widespread illness or other health issues; (4) the cyclical nature of the steel industry and the industries we serve; (5) volatility and major fluctuations in prices and availability of scrap metal, scrap substitutes and supplies, and our potential inability to pass higher costs on to our customers; (6) cost and availability of electricity, natural gas, oil, and other energy resources are subject to volatile market conditions; (7) increased environmental, greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability considerations from our customers and investors or related regulations; (8) compliance with and changes in environmental and remediation requirements; (9) significant price and other forms of competition from other steel and aluminum producers, scrap processors and alternative materials; (10) availability of an adequate source of supply of scrap for our metals recycling operations; (11) cybersecurity threats and risks to the security of our sensitive data and information technology; (12) the implementation of our growth strategy; (13) our ability to retain, develop and attract key personnel; (14) litigation and legal compliance; (15) unexpected equipment downtime or shutdowns; (16) governmental agencies may refuse to grant or renew some of our licenses and permits; (17) our senior unsecured credit facility contains, and any future financing agreements may contain, restrictive covenants that may limit our flexibility; and (18) the impacts of impairment charges.
More specifically, we refer you to our more detailed explanation of these and other factors and risks that may cause such predictive statements to turn out differently, as set forth in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K under the headings Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors, in our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, or in other reports which we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports are available publicly on the Securities and Exchange Commission website, www.sec.gov, and on our website, www.steeldynamics.com under "Investors – SEC Filings."
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SOURCE Steel Dynamics, Inc.
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