Steel Dynamics Provides Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Guidance

Rhea-AI Summary

Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) provided fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share versus sequential Q3 2025 earnings of $2.74 and prior‑year Q4 2024 earnings of $1.36. Management expects Q4 profitability to be meaningfully lower than Q3 due to lower average selling values and reduced volumes from seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages that cut flat rolled production by an estimated 140,000–150,000 tons. Indexed hot rolled steel prices fell by more than $70/ton from July to October 2025, lowering Q4 selling values on lagging contracts. Metals recycling and steel fabrication earnings are also expected to be lower sequentially. The company reported an estimated $200 million common stock repurchase (~1%) in Q4 and said its aluminum Columbus mill is commissioning with product qualifications. Q4 results will be released before the open on Jan 26, 2026 with an 11:00 a.m. ET conference call.

Positive

• Guidance $1.65–$1.69 per diluted share (Q4 2025)
• Earnings guidance up ~23% vs prior‑year Q4 ($1.36)
• Aluminum Columbus mill produced qualified can and automotive hot band
• Repurchased ~$200 million of common stock (~1%)

Negative

• Sequential EPS decline from $2.74 (Q3) to guidance midpoint (~39%)
• Planned outages reduced flat rolled output by 140,000–150,000 tons
• Indexed hot rolled steel prices fell >$70/ton July–October 2025
• Metals recycling earnings lower due to seasonal shipments and weaker pricing

Key Figures

Q4 2025 EPS guidance $1.65–$1.69 per diluted share Fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance range

Q3 2025 EPS $2.74 per diluted share Sequential third quarter 2025 earnings

Q4 2024 EPS $1.36 per diluted share Prior year fourth quarter earnings

Outage impact 140,000–150,000 tons Estimated reduction in Q4 2025 flat rolled steel production

HRC price change Over $70 per ton decrease Average published indexed hot rolled steel prices, Jul–Oct 2025

Share repurchases Q4 2025 $200 million (~1% of stock) Estimated repurchases so far during Q4 2025

Earnings release date January 26, 2026, 11:00 a.m. EST Planned Q4 2025 earnings release and call timing

Market Reality Check

$169.45 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,124,049 is slightly below 20-day average 1,162,139 (relative volume 0.97x) ahead of the guidance release. normal

Technical Shares trade above the 200-day MA at 136.24 and about 2.97% below the 52-week high of 174.31, near the top of the 103.17–174.31 range.

Peers on Argus

Peers show a mixed tape, with RS and GGB up while MT, NUE, and PKX are down. This, combined with no momentum scanner signals, points to a company-specific focus on STLD’s Q4 2025 guidance.

Common Catalyst Nucor (NUE) also issued Q4 2025 earnings guidance today, highlighting an earnings-guidance theme within the steel group.

Historical Context

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 01	Acquisition completion	Positive	+0.0%	Completed purchase of remaining 55% of key customer New Process Steel.
Nov 21	Debt offering	Neutral	+3.3%	Issued new notes and reopened 2035 notes to refinance 2026 debt.
Nov 11	Leadership change	Neutral	-0.0%	Appointed new head of metals recycling and OmniSource president.
Nov 07	Dividend declaration	Positive	-0.6%	Declared $0.50 cash dividend for Q4 2025 with early January payment.
Oct 27	Product launch	Positive	+3.3%	Launched BIOEDGE and EDGE low-carbon steel product lines using EAF tech.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has mostly aligned with price moves, with positive strategic and product updates often followed by modest gains, while a dividend announcement saw a small negative reaction.

Recent Company History

Over the last few months, Steel Dynamics announced an acquisition of the remaining 55% of New Process Steel, completed a notes offering and 2026 note redemption plan, made leadership changes in metals recycling, declared a $0.50 Q4 2025 dividend, and launched lower-embodied-carbon BIOEDGE and EDGE steel products. Price reactions were modest, with several strategic or sustainability-focused announcements aligning with small positive moves, framing today’s Q4 2025 earnings guidance within an active capital and product strategy.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement sets Q4 2025 EPS guidance at $1.65–$1.69 per share, below Q3’s $2.74 but above the prior-year $1.36. Management attributes lower profitability to weaker flat rolled pricing, seasonal demand, and outages cutting up to 150,000 tons of output. At the same time, aluminum operations in Mississippi and Mexico continue commissioning, and about $200M of stock has been repurchased. Investors may watch the January 26, 2026 earnings release for updated volume, pricing, and aluminum ramp metrics.

Key Terms

hot rolled steel technical

"Average published indexed hot rolled steel prices decreased over $70 per ton"

Hot rolled steel is steel shaped at very high temperatures so it can be rolled into sheets, plates or structural shapes while still soft and flexible; the process leaves a rougher surface and looser dimensional tolerances than cold-rolled steel. Investors care because it’s a widely used, lower-cost industrial input—like shaping warm dough instead of chilled dough—so its price, availability and quality affect manufacturers’ costs, profit margins and construction and industrial demand.

ferrous technical

"the domestic steel industry experienced a number of planned seasonal maintenance outages reducing ferrous scrap demand"

Ferrous describes materials or compounds that contain iron in a form that is chemically reactive and commonly used in industry and medicine — for example, iron salts in supplements or iron-based metals used to make steel. Investors care because ferrous materials affect product performance, regulatory approval for health products, and supply, demand and pricing in metal and pharmaceutical markets, so changes in availability or regulation can influence costs and revenues.

nonferrous technical

"Overall ferrous and nonferrous pricing also declined sequentially."

Nonferrous describes metals and alloys that do not contain significant iron, such as copper, aluminum, nickel and the precious metals; think of them as the kinds of metal that don’t rust like steel. For investors, nonferrous metals matter because they have different uses, supply chains and price drivers—they’re key in electronics, construction and batteries, so changes in demand, production or trade can shift company earnings and commodity markets.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

FORT WAYNE, Ind., Dec. 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ/GS: STLD) today provided fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance in the range of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share. Comparatively, the company's sequential third quarter 2025 earnings were $2.74 per diluted share, and prior year fourth quarter earnings were $1.36 per diluted share. 

Fourth quarter 2025 profitability from the company's steel operations is expected to be meaningfully lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower average realized selling values and lower volumes related to both seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages at the company's flat rolled steel mills. In addition to lower seasonal activity, some of the planned maintenance outages were longer in duration than originally anticipated and decreased volume in the fourth quarter 2025 by an estimated 140,000 to 150,000 tons of flat rolled steel production. Average published indexed hot rolled steel prices decreased over $70 per ton from July to October 2025, lowering the company's fourth quarter sequential flat rolled steel selling values, due to commercial contracts that price on a lagging indexed basis. However, more recently flat rolled steel prices have improved, as import volume has declined and underlying demand has been seasonally steady. 

Fourth quarter 2025 earnings from the company's metals recycling operations are expected to be lower than third quarter sequential results, based on lower seasonal shipments, as the domestic steel industry experienced a number of planned seasonal maintenance outages reducing ferrous scrap demand. Overall ferrous and nonferrous pricing also declined sequentially.

Fourth quarter 2025 earnings from the company's steel fabrication operations are expected to be lower than sequential third quarter results, based on seasonally lower shipments more than offsetting modest metal spread expansion, as average selling values were steady and steel raw material costs declined. The order backlog extends well into the second quarter 2026, with healthy pricing. Current order activity is steady with expectations for improved volumes in 2026, as interest rates decline and the support from the U.S. infrastructure program and onshoring are expected to positively impact demand for not only steel joist and deck products, but also for flat rolled and long product steel.

The aluminum team is continuing with the successful commissioning and startup of the company's Columbus, Mississippi aluminum flat rolled products mill and San Luis Potosi satellite recycled slab center. The teams successfully produced finished products for the industrial and beverage can sectors, receiving product qualifications from several can sheet consumers with additional successful qualifications ongoing. They also produced and received qualifications for aluminum hot band for use in automotive applications. Commissioning continues on the cold mill and other downstream lines, including the first CASH line.

The company has repurchased an estimated $200 million, or one percent, of its common stock so far during the fourth quarter 2025.

The company currently plans to release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens on Monday, January 26, 2026, and will hold a conference call that same day at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time to discuss the company's performance. 

About Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Steel Dynamics is a leading industrial metals solutions company, with facilities located throughout the United States, and in Mexico. The company operates using a circular manufacturing model, producing lower-carbon-emission, quality products with recycled scrap as the primary input. Steel Dynamics is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metal recyclers in North America, combined with a meaningful downstream steel fabrication platform. The company is also currently investing in aluminum operations to further diversify its product offerings, with plans to supply aluminum flat rolled products with high recycled content to the countercyclical sustainable beverage can industry, in addition to the automotive and industrial sectors.  Steel Dynamics is committed to operating with the highest integrity and to being the safest, most efficient producer of high-quality, broadly diversified, value-added metal products.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains some predictive statements about future events, including statements related to conditions in domestic or global economies, conditions in steel, aluminum, and recycled metals market places, Steel Dynamics' revenues, costs of purchased materials, future profitability and earnings, and the operation of new, existing or planned facilities. These statements, which we generally precede or accompany by such typical conditional words as "anticipate", "intend", "believe", "estimate", "plan", "seek", "project", or "expect", or by the words "may", "will", or "should", are intended to be made as "forward-looking", subject to many risks and uncertainties, within the safe harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements speak only as of this date and are based upon information and assumptions, which we consider reasonable as of this date, concerning our businesses and the environments in which they operate. Such predictive statements are not guarantees of future performance, and we undertake no duty to update or revise any such statements. Some factors that could cause such forward-looking statements to turn out differently than anticipated include: (1) domestic and global economic factors; (2) global steelmaking overcapacity and imports of steel, together with increased scrap prices; (3) pandemics, epidemics, widespread illness or other health issues; (4) the cyclical nature of the steel industry and the industries we serve; (5) volatility and major fluctuations in prices and availability of scrap metal, scrap substitutes and supplies, and our potential inability to pass higher costs on to our customers; (6) cost and availability of electricity, natural gas, oil, and other energy resources are subject to volatile market conditions; (7) increased environmental, greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability considerations from our customers and investors or related regulations; (8) compliance with and changes in environmental and remediation requirements; (9) significant price and other forms of competition from other steel and aluminum producers, scrap processors and alternative materials; (10) availability of an adequate source of supply of scrap for our metals recycling operations; (11) cybersecurity threats and risks to the security of our sensitive data and information technology; (12) the implementation of our growth strategy; (13) our ability to retain, develop and attract key personnel; (14) litigation and legal compliance; (15) unexpected equipment downtime or shutdowns; (16) governmental agencies may refuse to grant or renew some of our licenses and permits; (17) our senior unsecured credit facility contains, and any future financing agreements may contain, restrictive covenants that may limit our flexibility; and (18) the impacts of impairment charges.

More specifically, we refer you to our more detailed explanation of these and other factors and risks that may cause such predictive statements to turn out differently, as set forth in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K under the headings Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors, in our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, or in other reports which we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports are available publicly on the Securities and Exchange Commission website, www.sec.gov, and on our website, www.steeldynamics.com under "Investors – SEC Filings."

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SOURCE Steel Dynamics, Inc.

FAQ

What is Steel Dynamics' (STLD) Q4 2025 earnings guidance?

Steel Dynamics guided Q4 2025 EPS of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share.

How does STLD's Q4 2025 guidance compare to Q3 2025 earnings?

Q4 guidance is meaningfully lower than Q3 2025 earnings of $2.74 per diluted share.

How much flat rolled steel production did STLD estimate it lost in Q4 2025?

Management estimated a reduction of 140,000 to 150,000 tons of flat rolled production in Q4 2025.

What caused lower STLD profitability in Q4 2025?

Lower average realized selling values, seasonal demand declines, and longer‑than‑expected maintenance outages reduced volume and margins.

How large was STLD's Q4 2025 share repurchase?

The company repurchased an estimated $200 million, approximately 1% of common stock in Q4 2025.

What is the status of Steel Dynamics' Columbus aluminum mill and qualifications?

Commissioning is ongoing; teams produced finished products and received qualifications from several can sheet consumers and for automotive hot band.

When will Steel Dynamics release Q4 2025 results and hold the conference call for STLD?

Q4 2025 results are planned before market open on January 26, 2026, with a conference call at 11:00 a.m. ET the same day.