Mortgage-rate dip lifts affordability to a three-year high, sparks a fall housing flurry
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Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Buyers and sellers took advantage of a rare affordability break in October
- An October dip in mortgage rates helped drive a
5% annual increase in both new listings and pending sales. - Inventory continues to recover from record lows reached in 2022 — the current
17% shortfall from pre-pandemic averages is the smallest since March 2020. - Affordability for home buyers reached a three-year high as monthly mortgage payments fell
1.8% from last year.
Improved affordability
helped drive a rare fall surge in sellers both listing their homes and accepting offers from buyers; both metrics are up
"Buyers and sellers both got some badly needed relief to perk up what is typically a shoulder season for the housing market. The reaction to lower rates shows that buyers are ready to make offers when affordability improves," said Kara Ng, Zillow senior economist. "While fall has been a sneaky good market for buyers and sellers who stuck it out past the busy season, winter is coming, and it may bring rate volatility with it. This warm-up is not guaranteed to last."
The average 30-year mortgage rate eased to
Paired with rising incomes, this has improved affordability for new home buyers to three-year highs — though costs are still a significant challenge. The median-earning household would spend
More sellers test the market ahead of the holidays
Sellers reemerged in October after a sluggish summer, taking advantage of stronger demand and enjoying increased affordability themselves if they purchased another home. New listings picked up most compared to last year in
Total inventory has risen
Sales momentum improves as buyers seize lower rates
Buyers also responded quickly to the rate reprieve. Newly pending listings fell just
The sharpest increases in newly pending sales were seen in
Competition cools, bringing buyers markets to new frontiers
Zillow's Market Heat Index shows competition among buyers is easing along seasonal lines and is far cooler than in past years.
The market is balanced on the national scale, but 19 major markets now favor buyers, three more markets than in September and up from nine last October. These are concentrated in the South, but cold weather and accumulating inventory are bringing them farther north and west; new additions in October were
Sellers retain the strongest edge in
|
Metro Area* |
Zillow Home |
ZHVI Year over Year (YoY) |
Newly Pending Listings Change YoY |
Market Favors (Zillow Market Heat Index) |
Inventory Change YoY |
Inventory Change |
New Listings Change YoY |
|
|
|
0.1 % |
5.0 % |
Neutral |
12.8 % |
-17.3 % |
5.0 % |
|
|
|
3.1 % |
-0.6 % |
Seller |
3.1 % |
-47.6 % |
1.1 % |
|
Los Angeles, CA |
|
-1.0 % |
-0.9 % |
Seller |
14.3 % |
-16.1 % |
-2.4 % |
|
|
|
3.7 % |
-1.9 % |
Neutral |
-2.4 % |
-50.8 % |
-3.4 % |
|
|
|
-4.0 % |
-5.1 % |
Neutral |
12.7 % |
12.9 % |
-2.2 % |
|
|
|
-2.1 % |
2.0 % |
Buyer |
23.4 % |
17.1 % |
2.9 % |
|
|
|
0.3 % |
1.0 % |
Seller |
31.5 % |
-17.8 % |
10.7 % |
|
|
|
2.7 % |
4.8 % |
Neutral |
9.7 % |
-37.7 % |
5.0 % |
|
|
|
-4.8 % |
17.0 % |
Buyer |
10.3 % |
2.2 % |
4.4 % |
|
|
|
-2.9 % |
2.0 % |
Buyer |
15.9 % |
3.3 % |
-2.6 % |
|
|
|
1.5 % |
29.9 % |
Seller |
14.2 % |
-28.6 % |
1.9 % |
|
|
|
-3.4 % |
5.7 % |
Neutral |
15.9 % |
1.9 % |
6.9 % |
|
|
|
-2.8 % |
5.4 % |
Seller |
4.2 % |
-1.9 % |
-2.2 % |
|
|
|
-2.3 % |
4.2 % |
Seller |
11.4 % |
-19.6 % |
0.1 % |
|
|
|
3.4 % |
-1.1 % |
Buyer |
15.2 % |
-27.7 % |
10.6 % |
|
|
|
-1.1 % |
-9.7 % |
Buyer |
18.6 % |
-5.8 % |
-3.8 % |
|
|
|
2.0 % |
-2.5 % |
Seller |
5.4 % |
-25.4 % |
5.2 % |
|
|
|
-2.4 % |
2.7 % |
Neutral |
13.7 % |
-22.6 % |
-0.3 % |
|
|
|
-6.1 % |
38.5 % |
Buyer |
19.1 % |
17.6 % |
38.6 % |
|
|
|
-2.9 % |
-2.2 % |
Neutral |
12.7 % |
16.9 % |
-6.6 % |
|
|
|
1.3 % |
-0.9 % |
Neutral |
20.8 % |
-33.5 % |
3.5 % |
|
|
|
2.4 % |
5.3 % |
Neutral |
13.8 % |
-41.8 % |
8.6 % |
|
|
|
-4.6 % |
23.6 % |
Neutral |
15.2 % |
18.7 % |
15.0 % |
|
|
|
-0.7 % |
-8.0 % |
Buyer |
20.6 % |
22.2 % |
8.1 % |
|
|
|
-3.0 % |
1.7 % |
Buyer |
13.0 % |
35.2 % |
8.3 % |
|
|
|
-1.0 % |
0.5 % |
Neutral |
12.5 % |
-14.1 % |
1.8 % |
|
|
|
-2.3 % |
1.3 % |
Seller |
6.2 % |
-23.3 % |
-9.3 % |
|
|
|
1.4 % |
4.5 % |
Buyer |
9.4 % |
-29.0 % |
4.0 % |
|
|
|
2.9 % |
2.3 % |
Buyer |
14.9 % |
-20.3 % |
10.6 % |
|
|
|
-6.1 % |
-4.3 % |
Buyer |
8.4 % |
49.4 % |
9.5 % |
|
|
|
-1.7 % |
-5.0 % |
Neutral |
25.9 % |
-1.0 % |
1.9 % |
|
|
|
2.6 % |
2.6 % |
Neutral |
12.3 % |
-25.7 % |
7.0 % |
|
|
|
1.4 % |
4.1 % |
Neutral |
21.0 % |
-12.0 % |
12.5 % |
|
|
|
1.5 % |
5.8 % |
Buyer |
19.4 % |
-2.2 % |
11.6 % |
|
|
|
4.5 % |
7.0 % |
Seller |
11.6 % |
-47.4 % |
5.9 % |
|
|
|
-1.2 % |
-6.3 % |
Seller |
3.7 % |
-21.4 % |
-9.5 % |
|
|
|
-0.3 % |
2.4 % |
Buyer |
19.9 % |
8.8 % |
9.0 % |
|
|
|
1.9 % |
-1.5 % |
Neutral |
11.8 % |
-36.1 % |
1.2 % |
|
|
|
2.5 % |
9.7 % |
Seller |
9.9 % |
-53.4 % |
6.1 % |
|
|
|
-3.4 % |
22.5 % |
Buyer |
7.9 % |
18.7 % |
7.8 % |
|
|
|
4.0 % |
-5.6 % |
Buyer |
3.2 % |
-27.1 % |
0.2 % |
|
|
|
1.0 % |
0.9 % |
Neutral |
10.5 % |
9.9 % |
-0.6 % |
|
|
|
-2.5 % |
4.4 % |
Neutral |
36.9 % |
20.7 % |
15.0 % |
|
|
|
-0.5 % |
-6.5 % |
Buyer |
11.1 % |
10.4 % |
3.5 % |
|
|
|
1.5 % |
8.5 % |
Seller |
16.4 % |
-30.6 % |
4.6 % |
|
|
|
3.2 % |
-19.0 % |
Buyer |
20.0 % |
-16.6 % |
12.1 % |
|
|
|
0.6 % |
9.0 % |
Buyer |
1.1 % |
56.1 % |
1.5 % |
|
|
|
2.3 % |
-8.4 % |
Neutral |
18.8 % |
0.9 % |
3.1 % |
|
|
|
4.4 % |
-2.6 % |
Strong Seller |
6.2 % |
-62.1 % |
7.6 % |
|
|
|
3.7 % |
-3.1 % |
Seller |
7.5 % |
-36.6 % |
2.6 % |
|
|
|
0.5 % |
-0.9 % |
Buyer |
11.7 % |
-4.2 % |
3.4 % |
|
* |
Table ordered by market size |
|
|
|
|
1 |
The Zillow market report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The report is compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit zillow.com/research. |
|
2 |
Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in |
|
3 |
For the typical |
About
Zillow Group
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