TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast Shows Continued Positive Momentum Amidst Moderate Expansion
Rhea-AI Summary
TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) released its 2026 originations forecast alongside the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, projecting moderate expansion led by mortgages and unsecured personal loans.
The company forecasts mortgage purchase +4.0%, refinance +4.2% and unsecured personal loans +11.2% for 2026, while auto originations are seen modestly declining.
Positive
- Unsecured personal loan originations reached 7.2M in Q3 2025
- Subprime personal loan originations rose 32.5% YoY (Q3 2025)
- Bankcard originations increased 11.7% YoY (Q3 2025)
- Home‑equity originations grew 14.3% YoY (Q3 2025)
- Rate‑and‑term refinance originations jumped 25.7% YoY (Q3 2025)
Negative
- Personal loan borrower‑level 60+ DPD delinquency rose to 3.99% (Q4 2025)
- Consumer‑level mortgage 60+ DPD delinquency edged up to 1.51% (Q4 2025)
- Median VantageScore declined 2 points to 711 (Q4 2025)
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, TRU declined 1.32%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
TRU gained 0.54% while key data/market peers like FDS (+3.4%), MORN (+2.51%), MSCI (+2.07%) and NDAQ (+1.41%) posted stronger advances. Scanner data shows no broad momentum, suggesting a stock-specific, muted reaction to the credit outlook.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12 | Earnings and guidance | Positive | -1.4% | Reported strong Q4/2025 results and 2026 guidance with higher dividend and buybacks. |
| Feb 10 | Sector demand report | Positive | -1.1% | Data showed elevated auto and property insurance shopping versus typical seasonal declines. |
| Feb 03 | Auto intent survey | Positive | -12.5% | Survey indicated strong 2026 vehicle purchase intent and growing hybrid and EV interest. |
| Feb 02 | Strategic acquisition | Positive | -2.3% | Announced acquisition of RealNetworks’ mobile division to enhance voice and fraud tools. |
| Jan 28 | Industry award | Positive | -1.1% | Won Gold award for Branded Call Solution, highlighting capabilities in call authentication. |
Recent positive catalysts have often been followed by negative next-day moves, indicating a pattern of selling into good news.
Over the past month, TransUnion has reported several constructive developments, including strong Q4 and full-year 2025 results with 8–9% 2026 revenue growth guidance, positive sector insights on insurance and auto demand, and a voice/messaging acquisition funded with cash-on-hand. Despite this, each of the last five news items from Jan 28–Feb 12 saw negative next-day price reactions, suggesting investors have used good news to reduce exposure rather than add risk ahead of 2026.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement outlines TransUnion’s 2026 originations forecast, showing moderate growth in mortgages, credit cards and especially unsecured personal loans, alongside slightly higher delinquency and a median VantageScore 711 that declined by 2 points year-over-year. Compared with recent positive earnings, acquisition, and sector studies, it reinforces a narrative of steady but normalized credit expansion. Investors may monitor delinquency trends, consumer risk-tier shifts, and demand across auto, mortgage, and personal loans through 2026.
Key Terms
vantagescore financial
subprime financial
helocs financial
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Findings released in conjunction with TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report
CHICAGO, Feb. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) released its 2026 credit originations forecast, highlighting continued momentum in originations for mortgages as well as for unsecured personal loans. These growth trends come as forecasted demand for other credit products shows mixed performance. TransUnion released the originations forecast alongside its Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), which pointed to continued expansion in consumer lending at the end of 2025.
The 2026 originations forecast points to mortgage and unsecured personal loans as the primary drivers of projected expansion. Mortgage originations, both purchase and refinance, are set to extend the rebound of the past two years from near-record low levels, and unsecured personal loans are on pace for a third consecutive year of annual growth. These shifts illustrate continued consumer demand for credit in 2026 across most products, though at slower levels of growth than in 2025 as the broader credit landscape continues to normalize.
Mortgage and Unsecured Personal Loans are Expected to See Moderate Growth in 2026
| Annual Originations (annual growth) | 2026** | 2025** | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| Auto | -1.5% | - | - | |||
| Credit Card | 2.0% | - | - | |||
| Mortgage | Purchase | 4.0% | - | - | ||
| Refinance | 4.2% | - | - | |||
| Unsecured Personal Loans | 11.2%* | - | ||||
**Forecasted
*An earlier version of the news release referenced initial projections of
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Forecast
Credit cards are also expected to see a modest increase in originations for 2026; however, it’s worth noting that this expansion comes on the heels of near-record growth in 2025. Auto loan originations are expected to edge lower, following 2025 gains that were driven largely by consumers who accelerated purchases in advance of anticipated tariffs and the end of the EV tax credit.
“We expect lending activity to remain measured across most categories as lenders take a disciplined approach to profitable growth, using more data and services to better manage risk and fraud,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “At the same time, consumer demand for credit remains strong across risk tiers and will likely strengthen further if interest rates fall more than expected in the coming quarters.”
TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report saw originations gains as delinquencies edged up
Early signs of this forecasted originations growth can be seen when looking back to late 2025, where year-over-year (YoY) increases emerged across credit cards, unsecured personal loans and auto. At the same time, more consumers continued to drift away from the mid-level risk tiers and toward the highest and lowest risk tiers, reshaping portfolio dynamics for lenders. After remaining unchanged for the past several years, the median VantageScore® posted a YoY decline in Q4 2025, down 2 points to 711, signaling a subtle, but meaningful change in overall consumer credit health.
“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As these more typical patterns return, it’s more important than ever for lenders to leverage advanced tools, including trended data, to more accurately assess evolving risk profiles.”
To learn more about the latest consumer credit trends, register for the Q4 2025 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report webinar. Read on for more specific insights about credit cards, personal loans, auto loans and mortgages.
Bankcard originations surge as balances hold steady
Q4 2025 CIIR Credit Card Summary
- Bankcard originations rose
11.7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and the strongest annual growth in three years. Growth was primarily driven by both the subprime and super prime segments. - Total balances grew
4.2% year-over-year in Q4 2025 to$1.15 trillion , with the pace of growth holding steady for the fourth consecutive quarter. Total new credit lines rose9.2% year-over-year as issuers continued shifting toward more below-prime accounts with lower initial credit limits to help manage risk. - Consumer-level delinquencies ticked up after four consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement, though overall levels remain consistent with those seen in 2023. The 90+ days past due (DPD) delinquency rate on a consumer basis rose 2 basis points to
2.58% , remaining relatively flat over the last 3 years.
Instant Analysis
“Origination volume is expected to remain flat or experience slight seasonal declines next quarter, with a growing share shifting toward below-prime consumers. The continued expansion of the bankcard market reflects strengthened originations across all risk tiers, reflecting a measured commitment to maintaining credit access for consumers throughout the risk spectrum. We anticipate that balances will hold their current pace of growth in the near term.”
- Paul Siegfried, senior vice president, credit card business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2025 Credit Card Trends
| Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard) | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 |
| Number of Credit Cards (Bankcards) | 581.0 million | 561.5 million | 542.6 million | 518.4 million |
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) | 2.58% | |||
| Total Credit Card Balances | ||||
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $6,715 | |||
| Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance | 176.4 million | 173.1 million | 169.9 million | 166.0 million |
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 21.3 million | 19.1 million | 20.1 million | 21.6 million |
| Average New Account Credit Lines* | $5,587 |
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
For more credit card industry information, click here for episodes of Extra Credit: A Card and Banking Podcast by TransUnion. Click here for a credit card industry infographic.
Unsecured personal loan demand sets a new high as lenders navigate shifting risk
Q4 2025 CIIR Unsecured Personal Loan Summary
- Unsecured personal loan originations reached a record 7.2M in Q3 2025, the second consecutive quarter of new highs. Subprime drove growth with a
32.5% YoY increase in originations, while near prime and super prime segments each rose21.5% . FinTech lenders held a42% share of originations, up from roughly one‑third a year earlier. - Total unsecured personal loan balances climbed to a record
$276B in Q4 2025, held across 26.4M consumers carrying a balance. Subprime borrowers again led expansion with a17% YoY increase. Despite record totals, average balances per consumer and per account remained flat YoY. - The consumer-level 60+ days past due delinquency rate rose to
3.99% in Q4 2025 from3.57% a year earlier, the largest YoY increase since early 2023 and consistent with late-2022/2023 levels. Delinquency rose across all risk tiers, with subprime showing the sharpest increase at about half a percentage point. Even so, vintage data indicate new accounts originated in Q1 and Q2 2025 are going delinquent at a lower rate than in prior years, particularly within subprime.
Instant Analysis
“More Americans are turning to unsecured personal loans, and lenders are meeting that demand with stronger risk management. FinTechs remain the most active issuers, and even at elevated growth levels, especially among non‑prime borrowers, performance reflects disciplined underwriting and recalibrated risk strategies. Although account‑ and consumer‑level delinquency increased year over year, balance‑level performance held steady. Recent vintages also show newer subprime loans outperforming older cohorts, while super‑prime performance has deteriorated slightly.”
- Josh Turnbull, senior vice president, consumer lending business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2025 Unsecured Personal Loan Trends
| Personal Loan Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 |
| Total Balances | ||||
| Number of Unsecured Personal Loans | 32.7 million | 29.6 million | 28.1 million | 27.0 million |
| Number of Consumers with Unsecured Personal Loans | 26.4 million | 24.5 million | 23.5 million | 22.5 million |
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 3.99% | |||
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $11,699 | |||
| Average Account Balance | $8,421 | |||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 7.2 million | 5.8 million | 5.0 million | 5.6 million |
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional unsecured personal loan industry metrics. Click here for an unsecured personal loan industry infographic.
Mortgage and home equity originations see gains as delinquencies edge up
Q4 2025 CIIR Mortgage Loan Summary
- Mortgage originations rose
6.5% YoY in Q3 2025 to 1.34M, supported by increased purchase demand and stronger refinance activity. Purchase mortgage volume grew4.2% YoY and made up roughly80% of all originations, slightly below last year’s82.1% . Rate‑and‑term refinances jumped25.7% YoY, marking their eighth straight quarter of growth. - Home‑equity originations increased
14.3% YoY in Q3 2025 to 714K, the sixth consecutive quarter of expansion. HELOCs rose15.8% YoY to 352K, also the sixth straight quarterly gain, with Gen X and Baby Boomers representing the largest borrower segments at38% and30% . HELOAN volume climbed12.9% YoY, with growth rates led by strong Gen Z activity, which surged29% YoY. - Consumer‑level 60+ days past due mortgage delinquencies edged up to
1.51% in Q4 2025, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of YoY increases. FHA loans continued to account for the largest share of these delinquencies, while VA loans again posted the fastest YoY growth.
Instant Analysis
“As we move through 2026, easing 30‑year mortgage rates should improve affordability for both buyers and refinancers. Homeowners are also tapping accumulated equity, with home‑equity originations posting a sixth straight quarter of growth. We’re seeing further signs of normalization as inventory reaches its most balanced levels in nearly a decade. We’re encouraged by the momentum created by falling rates, increased supply and strong equity positions. Overall, the outlook remains positive as long as stakeholders stay focused and responsive.”
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2025 Mortgage Trends
| Mortgage Lending Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 |
| Number of Mortgage Loans | 54.6 million | 53.8 million | 52.9 million | 52.6 million |
| Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.51% | |||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 1.3 million | 1.3 million | 1.2 million | 1.5 million |
| Average Loan Amounts of New Mortgage Loans* | 368,729 | 350,250 | 337,977 | 334,339 |
| Average Balance per Consumer | $269,562 | |||
| Total Balances of All Mortgage Loans |
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
* Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional mortgage industry metrics. Click here for a mortgage industry infographic.
Auto lending ticks up as borrowers take on higher payments and larger loans
Q4 2025 CIIR Auto Loan Summary
- Auto loan originations rose
6.2% YoY to 6.7 million in Q3 2025. Despite ongoing affordability challenges and tariff concerns impacting consumer vehicle demand, every risk tier posted YoY gains. Subprime (+13.8% ) and super prime (+8.8% ) led growth, while prime (+1.0% ) saw a more modest increase. - Average monthly payments continued to climb. New vehicle payments rose
3.4% YoY to$782 , while used vehicle payments increased3.1% YoY to$538. Amounts financed also grew. New‑car financing rose4.9% YoY to$44,495 , and used‑car financing increased4.3% YoY to$27,278. - Accounts 60+ days past due reached
1.50% in Q4 2025, up three basis points YoY. While delinquency continued to rise, increases were driven more by used vehicles, with delinquencies up 10 bps YoY compared to a 4 bps increase for new vehicles—signaling a slower pace of overall deterioration.
Instant Analysis
“Rising vehicle prices continue to push loan sizes and monthly payments higher, shifting a greater share of new loan originations to super prime consumers, who are better positioned to absorb these increases. These trends underscore persistent affordability pressures that make it harder for many consumers to manage the total cost of ownership. While tariffs add to these challenges, broader pricing dynamics suggest affordability constraints are likely to persist if current patterns continue.”
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2025 Auto Loan Trends
| Auto Lending Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 |
| Total Auto Loan Accounts | 79.6 million | 80.4 million | 80.4 million | 80.2 million |
| Prior Quarter Originations1 | 6.7 million | 6.4 million | 6.3 million | 6.5 million |
| Average Monthly Payment NEW2 | $782 | |||
| Average Monthly Payment USED2 | $538 | |||
| Average Balance per Consumer | $24,822 | |||
| Average Amount Financed on New Auto Loans2 | $44,495 | |||
| Average Amount Financed on Used Auto Loans2 | $27,278 | |||
| Account-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.50% |
Source: TransUnion U.S. Consumer Credit Database
1Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
2Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, Q4 2025 data only for months of October & November.
Click here for additional auto industry metrics.
For more information about the report, please register for the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insight Report webinar.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business
| Contact | Dave Blumberg |
| TransUnion | |
| dblumberg@transunion.com | |
| Telephone | 312-972-6646 |
FAQ
What are the primary drivers of TransUnion's 2026 originations forecast for TRU?
How much growth does TransUnion forecast for unsecured personal loans in 2026 (TRU)?
What mortgage originations growth does TransUnion expect for 2026 (TRU)?
What delinquency trends did TransUnion report that could affect TRU outlook?
Will credit card originations help TRU's 2026 forecast and by how much?
How do TransUnion’s Q4 2025 findings affect investors watching TRU in 2026?
