Energy Fuels Announces Updated Feasibility Study for Toliara Rare Earth and HMS Project in Madagascar Confirming World-Class Scale and Economics, Including $1.8 Billion NPV and Ramping Up to Over $500 Million of Expected Annual EBITDA
Rhea-AI Summary
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU) released an updated Feasibility Study for its 100%‑owned Vara Mada
Key economics include a modeled 38‑year mine life, ramping to >$500M expected annual EBITDA
Positive
- $1.8B NPV (10% post‑tax, pre‑debt, post‑FID)
- 24.9% IRR (post‑tax, pre‑debt, post‑FID)
- Modeled 38‑year initial mine life
- Ramping to >$500M expected annual EBITDA
- Average annual EBITDA $387M over modelled life
- Average annual free cashflow $264M
- 904M tonnes Proven+Probable reserves at 6.1% HM
- Stage 1 CAPEX $769M; Stage 2 add $142M
Negative
- Project development contingent on Madagascar fiscal approvals and amendments
- Inclusion of monazite in mining permit not yet approved
- Pre‑FID CAPEX of $121M required before final decision
- White Mesa Mill downstream economics excluded from this FS
- Mill Phase 1/Phase 2 expansions and timings remain conditional and permit‑dependent
News Market Reaction
On the day this news was published, UUUU declined 1.90%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction. Argus tracked a trough of -2.0% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 13 alerts that day, indicating notable trading interest and price volatility. This price movement removed approximately $92M from the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $4.73B at that time.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
UUUU was up 3.33% with uranium peers also positive (e.g., DNN +3.42%, LEU +4.03%, NXE +1.20%, UEC +1.12%, EU +2.12%). However, momentum scanners did not flag a coordinated sector move, suggesting today’s trading leaned more company-specific.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29 | Uranium operations update | Positive | +2.9% | Uranium production and sales exceeded FY-2025 guidance with new contracts. |
| Dec 19 | Heavy REE qualification | Positive | +7.8% | Dy oxide from White Mesa qualified for magnet use by auto manufacturer. |
| Nov 03 | Q3 2025 earnings | Neutral | -13.2% | Quarterly results with net loss but higher uranium sales and strong liquidity. |
| Oct 22 | Earnings call notice | Neutral | +10.2% | Announcement of Q3-2025 results call and webcast logistics. |
| Oct 20 | Project financing support | Positive | +7.2% | Conditional A$80M senior debt support letter for Donald REE/mineral sands. |
Recent history shows generally positive 24-hour reactions to operational and strategic news, with the main negative move tied to quarterly financial results.
Over the past few months, Energy Fuels has reported several milestones. On Oct 20, 2025, it received conditional senior debt support for the Donald Project, followed by Q3-2025 results on Nov 3 that included a net loss but strong working capital. Subsequent news on conference calls, heavy rare earth qualification on Dec 19, and uranium production beating guidance on Dec 29 all saw positive price reactions. Today’s Vara Mada feasibility study continues that theme of expanding rare earth and mineral sands capabilities.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement details a comprehensive feasibility study for Vara Mada, highlighting a $1.8 billion NPV, projected ramp to over $500 million in annual EBITDA, and long mine life supported by large reserves. It fits into Energy Fuels’ broader move into rare earths alongside uranium operations and prior Donald Project progress. Investors may watch for final investment decision timing, Madagascar fiscal terms, capex execution, and follow-on studies for downstream processing economics.
Key Terms
npv financial
irr financial
ebitda financial
monazite technical
heavy mineral sands (hms) technical
ni 43-101 regulatory
s-k 1300 regulatory
cut-off grade technical
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
Company also announces renaming of Toliara Project to Vara Mada to better reflect the project's positive benefits to
Highlights include:
billion NPV ($1.8 10% discount rate, post-tax, pre-debt (real), post final investment decision (FID)). per share NPV ($7.30 10% discount rate, post-tax, pre-debt (real), post FID), based on current outstanding shares.- Monazite from Vara Mada to be processed at Energy Fuels'
100% -owned White Mesa Mill (Mill) in theU.S. into separated REE oxides at expected low capital and operating costs, setting a new paradigm for responsible, globally competitiveU.S. -centered REE oxide production. - Ramping up to over
of expected annual EBITDA (referred to as Operating Profit in the FS) from the project alone, not including the expected additional downstream EBITDA from processing the recovered monazite at the Mill, which is expected to be the subject of a separate feasibility study to be published in the coming weeks.$500 million - At full capacity, monazite produced from Vara Mada and Energy Fuels' other HMS projects has the potential to supply up to
30% ofU.S. demand for light REE oxides and85% ofU.S. demand for heavy REE oxides like dysprosium and terbium, as compared to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's 2032 REE supply forecast. - FS prepared in compliance with S-K 1300 (
U.S. ) and NI 43-101 (Canada ), which consolidates and supersedes the 2021 definitive feasibility study (DFS) and 2024 monazite-focused prefeasibility study (PFS) prepared in compliance with JORC (Australia ).
"The FS confirms what we've known since we acquired the project in 2024. Vara Mada is a generational, one-of-a-kind project that has the potential to positively alter the dynamics of global rare earth and critical mineral supply chains," said Mark S. Chalmers, CEO of Energy Fuels.
Vara Mada is a world-class, advanced-stage, and large-scale heavy mineral sand (HMS) project located in southwest
Chalmers continued, "Over the past six years, Energy Fuels has pursued a unique and aggressive strategy that is now seeing success where other 'western' rare earth companies have struggled. A significant proportion of
"Energy Fuels is committed to operating Vara Mada to the highest global standards of health, safety, sustainability, and environmental protection, while advancing the economy of
Key Economic Metrics:
billion NPV ($1.8 10% discount rate, post-tax, pre-debt (real), post FID); per share NPV ($7.30 10% discount rate, post-tax, pre-debt (real), post FID), based on current outstanding shares;24.9% IRR (post-tax, pre-debt, post-FID);- Ramping up to over
of expected annual EBITDA (referred to as Operating Profit in the FS) ($500 million of expected average annual EBITDA over the modelled life of the project);$387 million 72% expected average annual EBITDA margin over the modelled life of the project; of expected average annual free cashflow, over the modelled life of the project; and$264 million - FS applied price forecasts from TZ Minerals International Pty Ltd (TZMI) (mineral sands) and Adamas Intelligence Inc. (REEs).
Annual Production Averages (excluding first and last partial operating years):
- Expected production of 959,000 tonnes of ilmenite (sulphate, slag, and chloride), 66,000 tonnes of zircon, 8,000 tonnes of rutile, and 24,000 tonnes of monazite.
73% of expected revenue from external sales of ilmenite, zircon, and rutile to global customers, and27% from internal sales of monazite concentrate to Energy Fuels' White Mesa Mill for further processing into light and heavy REE oxides (the additional expected margins from refining the monazite into REE oxides at the Mill are not included in this FS, but are expected to be included in a separate feasibility study to be published within the coming weeks).
Mineral Reserves and Resources:
- The scale of Vara Mada is underpinned by the project's Ranobe deposit, which contains significant Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources and the long-term supply-demand outlook for rare earths and mineral sands:
- Ranobe's Mineral Reserves are estimated at point of feed to the dry mining unit (DMU) at 904 million tonnes of Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves with an average heavy mineral grade of
6.1% . The Proven and Probable heavy mineral assemblage includes73.0% ilmenite,1.0% rutile,1.0% leucoxene,5.9% zircon and1.9% monazite, supporting an initially modeled mine life of 38 years. - Ranobe's Mineral Resources (exclusive of Mineral Reserves) are estimated in situ at 485 million tonnes of Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources with an average heavy mineral grade of
3.3% . The Measured and Indicated heavy mineral assemblage includes69.6% ilmenite,1.1% rutile,1.1% leucoxene,6.0% zircon and2.0% monazite. - Additionally, there are 1.2 billion tonnes of Inferred Mineral Resources with an average heavy mineral grade of
3.3% . The Inferred heavy mineral assemblage includes69.2% ilmenite,1.0% rutile,1.0% leucoxene,5.8% zircon and2.0% monazite. - Key assumptions for the Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource estimates include:
- A cut-off grade of
1.5% heavy mineral. - Assumed price per metric tonne for Ilmenite
, Rutile$199 , Leucoxene$1,250 (when processed, Leucoxene reports to Ilmenite and Rutile products), Zircon$0 , Monazite$1,200 .$6,600 - Assumed recovery for Ilmenite
89.6% , Rutile49.9% , Leucoxene17.5% , Zircon77.2% , Monazite78.6% . - Assumed operating costs
/tonne mined,$1.00 /tonne feed to WCP,$0.64 /tonne feed to mineral separation plant (MSP) ilmenite,$13.38 /tonne feed to MSP rutile, leucoxene, zircon, monazite,$18.04 /tonne product transport to port,$3.45 /t product wharf cost,$8.91 /tonne mined overhead cost.$1.71
- A cut-off grade of
- Ranobe's Mineral Reserves are estimated at point of feed to the dry mining unit (DMU) at 904 million tonnes of Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves with an average heavy mineral grade of
The reserve estimate, on which the economic analysis is based, is considered to be conservative, as it is based on the cutoff grade and mine plan originally determined before monazite recovery was added to the project. The Company plans to revise its mine plan using a revised cutoff grade that takes into account the economic margins from the added monazite recovery, which is expected to increase the amount of Reserves within the existing Mineral Resource. The Company also plans to undertake an exploration drilling program in the Lower Sandy Unit (LSU) at the site which is described as an Exploration Target in the FS that is prospective for further HMS delineation up to an estimated additional 1,200-1,600 million tonnes of mineralized material. To the extent these activities generate additional Reserves and Resources, the life of the project would be expected to extend beyond the initially modeled mine life of 38 years.
Capital:
- Pre- FID CAPEX is expected to total
.$121 million - Post-FID, Stage 1 CAPEX to establish a 13 million tonnes per annum (tpa) mineral processing operation is expected to total
.$769 million - Stage 2 CAPEX adds
to nearly double operation to a 25 million tpa mining rate.$142 million
Vara Mada's Synergies with Energy Fuels' Existing
Vara Mada is a key component of Energy Fuels' diversified critical materials business, as it significantly expands the Company's REE and HMS capabilities. Vara Mada offers valuable synergies with the Company's White Mesa Mill in
The Company is also in the process of permitting its "Phase 2" expansion at the Mill, which is currently expected to be commissioned as early as Q4 2028. Upon completion, the "Phase 2" expansion is expected to increase the Mill's processing capability to up to 60,000 tpa of monazite concentrate into approximately 6,000 tpa NdPr, 275 tpa Dy, 80 tpa Tb, and potentially other REE oxides.
"Phase 2" is designed to be sufficient to accommodate all the monazite produced from Vara Mada at full capacity, along with the monazite concentrate produced from all planned phases of Energy Fuels' Donald Project joint venture in
Additional Details on Vara Mada:
The Company, through its subsidiary Base Toliara SARL, holds a mining permit for the Vara Mada Project allowing for the production of Ilmenite, rutile and zircon. In order for a positive FID to be made for the project, the Company and the Government of Madagascar will need to formalize the fiscal, stability and other terms applicable to the project, including the addition of monazite production to the existing mining permit, through an investment agreement, amendments to existing laws or other mechanisms as appropriate. Energy Fuels and the Government of
About Energy Fuels
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The technical information in this press release has been prepared in accordance with
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SOURCE Energy Fuels Inc.