2025 Natural Catastrophe losses should not lull market into false sense of security, warns Willis

Willis (NASDAQ: WTW) warns that 2025 produced more than US$100 billion in insured natural catastrophe losses — the sixth consecutive year above that level — but $40 billion lower than 2024.

Rhea-AI Summary

Willis (NASDAQ: WTW) warns that 2025 produced more than US$100 billion in insured natural catastrophe losses — the sixth consecutive year above that level — but $40 billion lower than 2024. The report highlights rising structural risks from wildfire, compound perils, warming-driven hurricane changes, and expanding flood exposure.

Willis recommends updated wildfire models, exposure-level data, consideration of compound events, and investment in resilience to protect insurance portfolios and manage mounting climate-driven volatility.

Positive

• Insured losses fell by $40 billion versus 2024
• Sixth consecutive year with insured losses above $100 billion

Negative

• Wildfire now a core driver of portfolio volatility requiring updated models
• Compound perils increase claims complexity and can delay payments
• Warming North Atlantic may extend hurricane season and raise Category 5 risk
• Flood risk rising outside traditional zones due to extreme rainfall patterns

Argus Jan 29 session

+0.61% close to close Open Argus

Details

News Market Reaction – WTW

On Jan 29, the day this news came out, WTW closed 0.61% above the previous close.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus for the Jan 29 session.

Key Figures

2025 insured nat-cat losses: more than US$100 billion Year-over-year loss change: $40 billion decrease Consecutive high-loss years: 6 years +3 more

2025 insured nat-cat losses

more than US$100 billion

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025

Year-over-year loss change

$40 billion decrease

Change in insured nat-cat losses vs 2024

Consecutive high-loss years

6 years

Years with insured nat-cat losses above US$100 billion

US hurricane landfalls

0 hurricanes

2025 hurricanes making landfall in the United States

Hurricane-free streak reference

first year in a decade

Gap since last year with no US hurricane landfall

Insured losses statement

over $100 billion

Quote on 2025 nat-cat insured losses indicating higher risk floor

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Jan 27

5 events

1. Jan 27

   Acquisition completion

   24h Move

   -2.4%

   Completion of Newfront acquisition to expand U.S. middle market capabilities.

2. Jan 26

   Employer survey

   24h Move

   -0.3%

   Survey on employers’ plans to enhance leave programs and adopt AI tools.

3. Jan 22

   ESG incentive study

   24h Move

   +1.1%

   Study on ESG and human-capital metrics in executive incentive plans.

4. Jan 21

   Compensation outlook

   24h Move

   -0.9%

   Report on 2026 U.S. salary budget expectations and talent dynamics.

5. Jan 21

   Sector risk report

   24h Move

   -0.9%

   Report outlining emerging economic risks facing the defense industry.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Key Terms

wildland-urban interface, risk modelling, compound perils, disaster risk financing products, +2 more

6 terms

wildland-urban interface technical

"encroachment of communities into the wildland-urban interface has long been predicted"

The wildland-urban interface is the zone where homes, businesses and other built areas meet or intermingle with undeveloped wildland such as forests, grasslands or brush. For investors it signals concentrated wildfire and vegetation-related risks—like property damage, higher insurance costs, utility liabilities and potential regulatory or cleanup expenses—much like a house built on the edge of a campfire has greater exposure than one in the middle of town.

risk modelling technical

"Risk modelling has to consider compound perils: cumulative damage brought on"

Risk modelling is the process of using historical data, trends, and assumptions to estimate the likelihood and potential size of future losses or adverse events for an investment or business. Think of it like a weather forecast for money: it creates scenarios that show what might go wrong and how bad it could be. For investors this matters because it informs pricing, portfolio choices, reserve levels and stress tests, helping reduce surprises and make decisions based on quantified trade-offs.

compound perils technical

"Risk modelling has to consider compound perils: cumulative damage brought on"

Compound perils are situations where two or more damaging events happen at the same time or in close succession, amplifying the overall loss beyond what each would cause alone. For investors, they matter because they raise the chance of larger-than-expected claims, disrupt revenue and cash flow, and strain insurers’ reserves—think of several small leaks combining into a flood that overwhelms a single bucket used to catch water.

disaster risk financing products financial

"Disaster risk financing products can be tailored to reduce the economic impact"

Financial contracts and instruments designed to provide rapid funding after natural or man-made disasters, including insurance policies, catastrophe bonds, and prearranged credit lines that pay out when defined triggers are met. These products matter to investors because they reduce the chance of large, unexpected losses and fiscal strain—acting like an emergency credit line or backup generator for balance sheets—and create investment opportunities and risks tied to how likely and costly disasters are.

Category 5 storms technical

"the Caribbean may see more Category 5 storms and for a longer season"

Category 5 storms are the strongest class of hurricanes, with sustained winds so powerful they can obliterate buildings, strip roofs, and render infrastructure unusable — think of a sledgehammer hitting a town repeatedly. For investors, they matter because they can cause huge, sudden losses to property values, disrupt supply chains and operations, and trigger large insurance and rebuilding costs that affect company earnings, regional economies, and market confidence.

pluvial flooding technical

"Pluvial flooding, which occurs when intense rainfall overwhelms surface drainage"

Pluvial flooding is surface flooding caused when heavy rainfall overwhelms drains, sewers and low-lying ground, producing puddles and standing water much like a bathtub overflowing when the drain can’t keep up. It matters to investors because it can damage property, disrupt operations and supply chains, raise insurance costs, and change the value of real estate and infrastructure in affected areas, creating both immediate losses and longer-term risk shifts.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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LONDON, Jan. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Natural catastrophes caused more than US$100 billion in insured losses in 2025, the sixth consecutive year above that threshold, yet a decrease of $40 billion when compared with 2024. The level of losses recorded, without a single hurricane making landfall in the United States, highlights the continued severity and persistence of natural catastrophe risk.

The latest edition of the Natural Catastrophe Review published today by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), with contributions from Willis Re, delves into the underlying trends, structural pressures, warning signs and systemic vulnerabilities behind climate risk.

Key takeaways include:

• Wildfire must be considered a core contributor to the volatility of insurance portfolios: pricing cannot rely exclusively on historical losses. Wildfire
  models must be adjusted to present-day conditions, use detailed asset level characteristics to supplement exposure data and apply realistic estimates for replacement costs. Prolonged drought enhanced by global warming and the continuing encroachment of communities into the wildland-urban interface has long been predicted to make catastrophic fires much more likely, but 2025 proved how severe claims can get.
  • Case study: Eaton and Palisades Fires, United States
    
• Risk modelling has to consider compound perils: cumulative damage brought on by multiple perils in quick succession (such as earthquakes on rain saturated soil, or typhoons following seismic events) can often lead to delayed claims payments and disagreements with policy holders. Disaster risk financing products can be tailored to reduce the economic impact of a sequence of catastrophic events when they happen.
  • Case study: Super Typhoon Ragasa, Philippines  
• Warming North Atlantic is changing hurricane behaviour: 2025 was the first year in a decade where no hurricanes made landfall in the US, but other places were not so fortunate. The review analyses why the Caribbean may see more Category 5 storms and for a longer season. It was previously uncommon for major hurricanes to form in October, but as the North Atlantic has warmed, the environmental conditions that are favourable to hurricane formation are lasting later in the year. That same warming also allows storms to become much stronger very quickly.
  • Case study: Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica  

• Flood risk is no longer confined to formally defined zones, and more intense rainfall than ever before is expected to accompany tropical storms: as the world continues to warm, both ends of the hydrological spectrum (flood and drought) are expected to become more intense. The second half of 2025 featured extreme or record-setting rainfall in many locations, leading to numerous cases of severe flooding in places not typically considered to be high risk. Pluvial flooding, which occurs when intense rainfall overwhelms surface drainage and causes high water in places far removed from rivers, lakes or coasts, has become a risk to watch. Risk managers ought to think broadly about their exposure to all types of high water and adjust their insurance coverage accordingly.
  • Case study: Cyclone Senyar, Cyclone Ditwah and Typhoon Koto, Southeast Asia
    

Cameron Rye, Director of Natural Catastrophe Analytics at Willis Re said: “Good luck is no substitute for sound strategy. Even if 2025 can be described as a moderate loss year, catastrophe risk remains high, and physical risks continue to increase as the world warms. Insurers should act now to protect their portfolios against unsustainable accumulations of risk and prepare for a reversal of fortune. The path forward given these trends isn’t to walk away from risk, but instead to encourage investment in resilience and mitigation. Risk managers and sustainability teams can protect business value by working together, supported by advances in modelling, pricing and risk awareness.”

Scott St. George, Head of Weather and Climate research at the Willis Research Network, said: “Even without any hurricanes making landfall in the United States, in 2025 insured losses from natural catastrophes were still over $100 billion worldwide. That tells us the risk floor for catastrophic perils is higher than ever. Beyond the immediate headlines, our team of experts digs into the structural pressures, overlooked warning signs, and systemic vulnerabilities that multiplied the impact of natural catastrophes in 2025. Our perspectives on the evolving risk landscape provide advice to insurers seeking to update their view of these risks, including the burgeoning affordability crisis in many markets.”

The full report can be downloaded here.

About WTW

At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.

Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success - and provide perspective that moves you.

Learn more at wtwco.com.

Media contacts
Jo Barrett
jo.barrett@wtwco.com / +44 7940703911

Lauren David
lauren.david@wtwco.com / +44 7385947619

FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

How large were natural catastrophe insured losses in 2025 according to Willis (WTW)?

Insured natural catastrophe losses in 2025 exceeded $100 billion. According to Willis, that marks the sixth straight year above $100 billion, though losses were $40 billion lower than in 2024, reflecting geographic shifts rather than reduced underlying risk.

What does Willis (WTW) recommend for insurers about wildfire risk modeling?

Willis recommends updating wildfire models to current conditions and asset-level data. According to Willis, models should use detailed exposure characteristics and realistic replacement-cost estimates to avoid pricing that relies solely on historical losses.

Why does Willis (WTW) say 2025 should not lull markets into complacency?

Because structural vulnerabilities and warming-driven perils persist despite a moderate year. According to Willis, unchanged physical risks, compound events, and expanding flood exposure mean portfolios remain exposed to large, sudden losses.

How is hurricane behaviour changing, per Willis (WTW) 2025 review?

Willis finds the warming North Atlantic is extending hurricane season and enabling rapid intensification. According to Willis, this increases the likelihood of more Category 5 storms and later-season major hurricanes in regions like the Caribbean.

What flood risks did Willis (WTW) highlight for risk managers in 2025?

Willis warns flood risk is spreading beyond mapped zones due to record rainfall and pluvial events. According to Willis, intense rainfall overwhelmed drainage in many areas in the second half of 2025, exposing assets not traditionally seen as high flood risk.