Morgan Stanley Raises JOYY (JOYY.US) Target Price from US$40 to US$62 on Signs of Live Streaming Recovery and Attractive Shareholder Returns

Rhea-AI Summary

Morgan Stanley raised its target price for JOYY (YY) to US$62 from US$40 on Oct 14, 2025, citing improving fundamentals and shareholder returns.

The firm says JOYY's live‑streaming business may have bottomed after 1% QoQ growth in 2Q25, forecasts further QoQ improvement in 2H25 and stronger growth in 2026–2027, and sees advertising as the main growth driver after 175% YoY ad growth in 2024 with expected 26% YoY in 2H25 and 20% in 2026.

Analyst also highlighted a robust cash position and a shareholder return program including a three‑year quarterly dividend (~US$600m total) plus repurchases, and assumes US$300m annual investor returns in 2025–2027.

Positive

• Analyst target increased to US$62 from US$40
• Advertising revenue grew 175% YoY in 2024
• Forecasted advertising growth: 26% YoY 2H25 and 20% in 2026
• Planned investor returns ~US$300m annually (2025–2027)

Negative

• Live‑streaming only 1% QoQ growth in 2Q25
• 1H25 investor distributions totaled US$135m, below assumed annual US$300m

Insights

Equity Research Analyst

Morgan Stanley raised JOYY's target to $62, citing live-stream recovery, ad growth, and sizable shareholder returns.

JOYY appears to show stabilizing core operations after the live-streaming segment returned to 1% QoQ growth in 2Q25. The note highlights accelerating advertising revenue, following > 175% y/y growth in 2024, with Morgan Stanley projecting 26% y/y growth in 2H25 and 20% in 2026. The firm also points to a strong cash position and an explicit shareholder-return plan as downside protection.

Key dependencies and risks include continued QoQ improvement in live streaming and the ad-revenue momentum sustaining through 2026-2027. The firm assumes recurring investor returns of $300 million annually in 2025-2027 and notes prior allocations of $135 million in 1H25. Watch quarterly revenue trends, advertising growth rates, and executed buybacks/dividends over the next several quarters, particularly results for 2H25 and reported returns in 2025.

SINGAPORE, Oct. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Morgan Stanley has raised its target price for JOYY (JOYY.US) to US$62 from US$40, reflecting improving fundamentals in JOYY's core business, accelerating advertising growth, and attractive shareholder returns. The firm also highlighted JOYY's robust cash position and attractive shareholder return program as key factors offering downside protection.

Live-streaming business may have bottomed out: Morgan Stanley thinks JOYY's live steaming business may have bottomed out since 2Q25, after reporting 1% QoQ growth and positive management comments on revenue growth. The report expects further QoQ improvement in 2H25 and more growth in 2026-2027.

Advertising business to be the main growth driver in 2026 –2027: The report notes that JOYY's advertising business continued its strong revenue momentum in the first half of 2025, following more than 175% year-over-year growth in 2024. Morgan Stanley expects this momentum to persist, forecasting 26% year-over-year growth in 2H25 and 20% in 2026.

Attractive dividends and buybacks of US$300mn annually in 2025-2027: The company previously announced a three-year quarterly dividend policy totaling approximately US$600 million, together with a share repurchase program of up to US$300 million during 2025-2027. In 1H25, JOYY allocated US$135 million to quarterly dividends and share buybacks. Morgan Stanley assumes US$300 million in annual investor returns, including dividends and share buybacks.

 

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SOURCE JOYY Inc.

FAQ

Why did Morgan Stanley raise JOYY (YY) target price to US$62 on Oct 14, 2025?

The firm cited improving live‑streaming fundamentals, accelerating advertising growth, and attractive shareholder returns as drivers for the raise to US$62.

What growth does Morgan Stanley forecast for JOYY advertising in 2H25 and 2026?

Morgan Stanley expects advertising growth of 26% YoY in 2H25 and 20% in 2026.

Has JOYY's live‑streaming business stabilized as of 2Q25 for ticker YY?

Morgan Stanley says live‑streaming may have bottomed after JOYY reported 1% QoQ growth in 2Q25 and management signaled revenue improvement.

What shareholder return programs did JOYY announce for 2025–2027 (YY)?

JOYY announced a three‑year quarterly dividend program totaling about US$600m plus a share repurchase program up to US$300m for 2025–2027.

How much did JOYY allocate to dividends and buybacks in 1H25?

JOYY allocated US$135m to quarterly dividends and share buybacks in 1H25.

Does Morgan Stanley assume ongoing investor returns for JOYY (YY)?

Yes; Morgan Stanley assumes approximately US$300m in annual investor returns (dividends and buybacks) for 2025–2027.