Hartford edges out Buffalo to become Zillow's hottest market for 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

Zillow (Z) names Hartford the nation’s hottest housing market for 2026, edging out two-time leader Buffalo based on Zillow’s market heat index and metrics of competition, price trends and inventory.

Key figures: Hartford ZHVI $381,760 (Oct 2025), 2025 ZHVI YoY +4.3%, forecasted 2026 home value growth +3.9%, and a -63.0% inventory gap versus 2018–2019 averages. Buffalo ranks second with ZHVI $277,499 and a -39.1% inventory gap. New York metro is third; marketwide Zillow predicts a national home-value rise of 1.7% in 2026 and mortgage rates drifting toward 6%.

Positive

• Hartford forecast to lead price growth at +3.9% YoY in 2026
• Hartford ZHVI at $381,760 (Oct 2025), signaling solid price base
• Zillow projects national home values to rise 1.7% in 2026, with rates easing toward 6%

Negative

• Hartford inventory is -63.0% versus 2018–2019 averages, the largest deficit among top 50 metros
• 66.4% of Hartford homes sold >list price in 2025, indicating intense bidding competition
• San Jose ZHVI fell -2.1% YoY (Oct 2025), showing localized price weakness

News Market Reaction – Z

+2.61%

1 alert

+2.61% News Effect

On the day this news was published, Z gained 2.61%, reflecting a moderate positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Hartford inventory gap: 63% below pre-pandemic Hartford over-ask sales: 66.4% of homes Hartford price cuts: 16.5% of homes +5 more

8 metrics

Hartford inventory gap 63% below pre-pandemic Inventory versus 2018–2019 averages in Hartford

Hartford over-ask sales 66.4% of homes Share of 2025 Hartford sales above list price

Hartford price cuts 16.5% of homes Share of Hartford listings with a 2025 price cut

Hartford ZHVI $381,760 Zillow Home Value Index, Oct 2025

Hartford YoY growth 4.3% ZHVI year-over-year change, Oct 2025

Hartford 2026 forecast 3.9% YoY Forecast home value growth to Oct 2026

US 2026 home value forecast 1.7% increase Marketwide Zillow prediction for 2026

Mortgage rate path Toward 6% Forecast for mortgage rates in 2026

Market Reality Check

Price: $45.46 Vol: Volume 4,591,504 vs 20-da...

high vol

$45.46 Last Close

Volume Volume 4,591,504 vs 20-day average 2,868,292 (about 1.6x typical activity ahead of this housing-demand news). high

Technical Price $68.17 trades below 200-day MA at $73.68, despite a 2.39% daily gain.

Peers on Argus

Z rose 2.39% with above-average volume. Close peer ZG gained 1.19% and PINS and ...

Z rose 2.39% with above-average volume. Close peer ZG gained 1.19% and PINS and BIDU were modestly positive, while NBIS and TME declined. Mixed peer moves and a sector scanner flag of false suggest a company-specific reaction to Zillow-branded market data.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Dec 30 (Neutral)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 30	Consumer trends report	Neutral	-0.7%	Data on agent relationships and online research shaping housing transactions.
Dec 30	Risk exposure study	Neutral	-0.7%	Analysis of Los Angeles wildfire housing value and rental impacts.
Dec 18	Market cooling update	Neutral	-1.8%	Update on listings, price cuts, sales, and affordability into 2026.
Dec 17	Search behavior review	Neutral	-1.9%	Zillow Zeitgeist report on lifestyle-focused home search trends.
Dec 16	Market rankings release	Neutral	+2.5%	2025 rankings highlighting Midwest popularity and affordability patterns.

Pattern Detected

Recent Zillow housing reports often coincided with small negative or mixed price reactions, indicating modest trading impact from data releases.

Recent Company History

Over the past few weeks, Zillow has issued several housing-data releases, including consumer agent trends, wildfire exposure analysis, affordability shifts, search-behavior insights, and 2025 market rankings. These events saw 24-hour moves ranging from about -1.86% to +2.47%. Today’s hottest-markets forecast continues this pattern of data-driven brand visibility rather than discrete corporate actions, reinforcing Zillow’s role as a national housing data source.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement underscores Zillow’s analytical view that Hartford and several Northeast and coast...

Analysis

This announcement underscores Zillow’s analytical view that Hartford and several Northeast and coastal metros face tight inventory and strong buyer competition, with Hartford’s ZHVI at $381,760 and a forecast 3.9% gain into 2026. For Zillow, such rankings extend a series of data-driven releases that reinforce its position in housing research. Observers may watch future market reports, macro housing indicators, and upcoming earnings to gauge how engagement with Zillow’s ecosystem evolves.

Key Terms

zillow home value index (zhvi), zillow market heat index

2 terms

zillow home value index (zhvi) technical

"Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), October 2025 | ZHVI Year over Year"

A Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) is a regularly updated measure that estimates the typical home price in a specific neighborhood, city, or region by combining public records, listings and recent sales into a single smoothed number. Investors use it like a thermometer for housing markets—tracking whether local prices are rising or falling helps assess real estate exposure, regional economic strength, mortgage risk and demand for related investments such as REITs or homebuilders.

zillow market heat index technical

"Zillow Market Heat Index 2025 | Change in Inventory Versus 2018–2019"

The Zillow Market Heat Index is a numerical gauge of local housing market activity that compares buyer demand to available homes, expressed on a scale where higher readings signal stronger competition and upward pressure on prices. Investors use it like a temperature gauge for real estate: rising heat suggests faster sales, tighter inventories and potential price gains that affect homebuilders, mortgage lenders and property investors, while cooling indicates weakening market momentum.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Competition among buyers will be hottest in the Northeast and Bay Area, where building has lagged

• The New York metro area is third in Zillow's list of hottest markets for 2026, followed by Providence and San Jose to round out the top five. In these markets, Zillow expects price cuts to be rare, listings to move fast and strong price growth.
• Inventory is still 63% below pre-pandemic levels in Hartford, the largest deficit among the 50 largest U.S. metros by population. 
• More than 66% of homes sold above list price in Hartford in 2025, leading all major metros. 

SEATTLE, Jan. 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Competition for houses is set to be fiercest in Hartford this year, beating back-to-back leader Buffalo in Zillow's annual hottest markets forecast¹. 

Common among the Northeast and coastal California metros at the top of the list are few options for buyers to choose from. That spurred fast sales and home price growth in 2025 and should keep home values rising fast in 2026. 

"Competition among buyers will be stiff and sellers will have the upper hand in this year's hottest markets. Shoppers will need to tap all the resources they can muster in these fast-moving markets, from their team of experts to tech aids to financial assistance, but successful buyers will quickly gain equity," said Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher. "In today's market affordability is all-important, but any improvements in 2026 will depend on location."

Zillow's hottest market analysis ranks the nation's 50 most populous metros based on:

• Home price growth — both past and expected.
• 2025 Zillow data on housing market competition: how quickly homes sold, how often sellers cut prices, and the share of homes that sold for over list price. 
• Job growth per new home permitted.²

Hartford ranked fourth on Zillow's 2025 predictions list, which called out a nation-leading appreciation forecast. That prediction proved prescient — home values grew faster in Hartford than in any other major metro last year, up 4.6%. The climb should continue in 2026; Hartford is forecast to lead price growth yet again this year, though at a slightly more relaxed pace of 3.9% annually. 

Buyers faced extreme pressure in Hartford last year, with a nation-high 66.4% of homes sold over asking price and the second-lowest share of homes with a price cut, at just 16.5%. Injections of inventory aren't likely to come from either existing owners or builders; buyers should be prepared for bidding wars and broken hearts. 

Zillow forecasted Buffalo to be the hottest market in 2024 and 2025, and both calls were on-the-money. Sellers held a strong advantage in negotiations there throughout last year, giving it the highest competition value on Zillow's market heat index among major metros.

At third on the list is the New York metro area, which includes parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Contributing to its high ranking in 2026 are a positive home price forecast, strong employment, and the lowest share of listings with a price cut among major metros at just 13.5%. Economists at StreetEasy® have predicted a faster-moving market with more inventory within New York City's five boroughs this year. 

Marketwide Zillow predictions for 2026 call for home values to recover from a flat spot in 2025 and rise modestly by 1.7%. Mortgage rates are forecast to continue a gentle downward path toward 6%, which should give a boost to home sales, and affordability should improve somewhat for renters and buyers alike. 

How shoppers should handle hot markets: 

• Financial Preparation. On-time rent payments (even past ones) can help raise renters' credit scores. Shopping around for a mortgage, getting pre-approved and utilizing down payment assistance programs (found on every Zillow listing) can give shoppers a financial and competitive edge.  
• Shop smart. Digital touring tools can quickly separate top options from incompatible ones, while Zillow's BuyAbility tracks mortgage rates and price cuts to make sure search results are within the budget. 

2026 Hottest Markets Rank	Metropolitan Area	2025 Rank	Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), October 2025	ZHVI Year over Year (YoY) Growth, Oct. 2025	Home Value Growth Forecast, YoY in Oct. 2026	Zillow Market Heat Index 2025	Change in Inventory Versus 2018–2019 Averages
1	Hartford, CT	4	$381,760	4.3 %	3.9 %	89.6	-63.0 %
2	Buffalo, NY	1	$277,499	3.7 %	2.5 %	95.8	-39.1 %
3	New York, NY	41	$704,284	2.9 %	1.5 %	76.3	-48.4 %
4	Providence, RI	3	$503,409	2.5 %	3.0 %	70.0	-54.9 %
5	San Jose, CA	48	$1,558,466	-2.1 %	1.2 %	90.6	-26.7 %
6	Philadelphia, PA	5	$378,054	3.0 %	1.7 %	59.8	-39.4 %
7	Boston, MA	16	$717,711	1.2 %	1.5 %	75.2	-30.3 %
8	Los Angeles, CA	34	$941,869	-1.2 %	1.1 %	63.4	-18.5 %
9	Richmond, VA	9	$383,275	1.3 %	2.1 %	69.1	-34.2 %
10	Milwaukee, WI	42	$369,303	3.7 %	2.1 %	65.2	-25.7 %

¹ This press release includes forward-looking statements about future housing market conditions, mortgage rates, and other economic factors. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to change. Actual outcomes may differ materially due to changes in economic and market conditions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release, and Zillow Group undertakes no obligation to update them.

² The 2025 Hottest Markets analysis included household growth data from the U.S. Census that was not available for this year's study.

About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate app and website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated real estate professionals, and easier buying, selling, financing, and renting experiences. 

Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Zillow Rentals®, Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce®, and Follow Up Boss®. 

All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2025 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.

(ZFIN)

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SOURCE Zillow

FAQ

Why did Zillow rank Hartford (Z) as the hottest housing market for 2026?

Zillow cited tight supply and strong competition: Hartford had a -63.0% inventory gap versus 2018–2019 and strong 2025 demand, driving its top market-heat score.

What home price growth does Zillow forecast for Hartford in 2026?

Zillow forecasts Hartford home values to rise 3.9% year-over-year in 2026.

How competitive was Hartford’s market in 2025 according to Zillow?

In 2025, 66.4% of Hartford homes sold above list price and only 16.5% had price cuts, signaling very high competition.

What national housing outlook did Zillow give for 2026 and mortgage rates?

Zillow expects national home values to increase 1.7% in 2026 and forecasts mortgage rates to trend down toward 6%, supporting sales.

How did Buffalo and New York rank in Zillow’s 2026 hottest markets list?

Buffalo ranked #2 (ZHVI $277,499) and the New York metro ranked #3, both noted for fast sales and low shares of price cuts.