Ryerson (RYI) posts wider Q4 loss but sees stronger Q1 2026 and Olympic Steel boost
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Ryerson Holding Corporation released preliminary fourth quarter 2025 results showing weaker profitability than expected but solid cash generation and lower leverage. Revenue was $1.10 billion, with tons shipped down 4.9% and average selling prices essentially flat versus the third quarter. Gross margin compressed to 15.3% from 17.2% as material costs rose faster than resale prices, and LIFO expense increased to $22.5 million, above prior guidance.
Net loss attributable to Ryerson was $37.9 million, or $1.18 per diluted share, much wider than the expected loss of $9 million to $7 million. Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO was $20.4 million, below the guided $33 million to $37 million range. Despite this, Ryerson generated $112.7 million of operating cash flow, reduced debt to $463 million, lowered net debt to $436 million, and improved its leverage ratio from 3.7x to 3.1x.
For the first quarter of 2026, Ryerson guides to a volume increase of 13%–15% over the fourth quarter, net sales of $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion, and flat to up 2% prices. It expects net income of $10 million to $12 million before merger fees and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO of $51 million to $54 million, while using cash to fund working capital. The company and Olympic Steel continue to work toward closing their all-stock merger in the first quarter of 2026; assuming Olympic contributes for the last six weeks of the quarter, Ryerson estimates combined revenue of $1.52 billion to $1.58 billion and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO of $63 million to $67 million.
Positive
- Improved balance sheet and leverage: Ryerson generated $112.7 million of Q4 2025 operating cash flow, reduced outstanding debt to $463 million, cut net debt to $436 million, and lowered its leverage ratio from 3.7x to 3.1x.
- Stronger outlook for early 2026 and merger uplift: Q1 2026 guidance calls for 13%–15% higher volume, $1.26–$1.30 billion in sales, and $51–$54 million of Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO, with additional upside estimated from the Olympic Steel combination.
Negative
- Significant earnings miss versus guidance: Q4 2025 net loss of $37.9 million ($1.18 per share) was far worse than the previously expected $9–$7 million loss, and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO of $20.4 million fell below the $33–$37 million guidance range.
- Margin pressure from rising costs and higher LIFO expense: Gross margin declined to 15.3% from 17.2% as input costs rose faster than selling prices, while LIFO expense surged to $22.5 million, well above the guided $10–$14 million range.
Insights
Q4 2025 earnings missed guidance, but leverage improved and Q1 2026 guidance plus the Olympic Steel merger point to a potential rebound.
Ryerson’s preliminary Q4 2025 results show a meaningful shortfall versus guidance. Revenue of $1.10 billion met expectations, but gross margin fell to 15.3% as material costs outpaced flat selling prices. LIFO expense of $22.5 million more than doubled the high end of guidance, driving Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO down to $20.4 million versus the prior $33–$37 million range.
The earnings impact was significant: net loss reached $37.9 million, or $1.18 per diluted share, compared with an expected loss of $9–$7 million. However, working capital release generated $112.7 million of operating cash flow, allowing debt reduction to $463 million and an improved leverage ratio of 3.1x from 3.7x.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026, Ryerson guides to a 13%–15% sequential volume increase, net sales of $1.26–$1.30 billion, and net income of $10–$12 million before merger fees. Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO is projected at $51–$54 million, and the company expects margin expansion as higher inventory costs flow into pricing. If the Olympic Steel merger closes in Q1 2026 as anticipated, adding six weeks of Olympic results could lift combined revenue to $1.52–$1.58 billion and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO to $63–$67 million, though actual outcomes will depend on closing timing and integration.