Ryerson (RYI) posts wider Q4 loss but sees stronger Q1 2026 and Olympic Steel boost
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Ryerson Holding Corporation released preliminary fourth quarter 2025 results showing weaker profitability than expected but solid cash generation and lower leverage. Revenue was $1.10 billion, with tons shipped down 4.9% and average selling prices essentially flat versus the third quarter. Gross margin compressed to 15.3% from 17.2% as material costs rose faster than resale prices, and LIFO expense increased to $22.5 million, above prior guidance.
Net loss attributable to Ryerson was $37.9 million, or $1.18 per diluted share, much wider than the expected loss of $9 million to $7 million. Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO was $20.4 million, below the guided $33 million to $37 million range. Despite this, Ryerson generated $112.7 million of operating cash flow, reduced debt to $463 million, lowered net debt to $436 million, and improved its leverage ratio from 3.7x to 3.1x.
For the first quarter of 2026, Ryerson guides to a volume increase of 13%–15% over the fourth quarter, net sales of $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion, and flat to up 2% prices. It expects net income of $10 million to $12 million before merger fees and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO of $51 million to $54 million, while using cash to fund working capital. The company and Olympic Steel continue to work toward closing their all-stock merger in the first quarter of 2026; assuming Olympic contributes for the last six weeks of the quarter, Ryerson estimates combined revenue of $1.52 billion to $1.58 billion and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO of $63 million to $67 million.
Positive
- Improved balance sheet and leverage: Ryerson generated $112.7 million of Q4 2025 operating cash flow, reduced outstanding debt to $463 million, cut net debt to $436 million, and lowered its leverage ratio from 3.7x to 3.1x.
- Stronger outlook for early 2026 and merger uplift: Q1 2026 guidance calls for 13%–15% higher volume, $1.26–$1.30 billion in sales, and $51–$54 million of Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO, with additional upside estimated from the Olympic Steel combination.
Negative
- Significant earnings miss versus guidance: Q4 2025 net loss of $37.9 million ($1.18 per share) was far worse than the previously expected $9–$7 million loss, and Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO of $20.4 million fell below the $33–$37 million guidance range.
- Margin pressure from rising costs and higher LIFO expense: Gross margin declined to 15.3% from 17.2% as input costs rose faster than selling prices, while LIFO expense surged to $22.5 million, well above the guided $10–$14 million range.
Insights
Q4 2025 earnings missed guidance, but leverage improved and Q1 2026 guidance plus the Olympic Steel merger point to a potential rebound.
Ryerson’s preliminary Q4 2025 results show a meaningful shortfall versus guidance. Revenue of
The earnings impact was significant: net loss reached
Looking ahead to