Annual Report 2025 |
Sustainability Statement | Other supplemental information
89
Climate-related metrics
The climate-related
metrics in
the table below
provide information
on climate-driven
transition- and
physical-risk-sensitive
exposure linked to traded products and
issuer risk specifically for UBS
AG (standalone), UBS Switzerland AG
(standalone)
and UBS Europe SE (standalone).
Risk management – Climate-related metrics
For the year ended
31.12.25
31.12.24
Climate-related metrics (USD bn)
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, transition risk: Traded products, UBS AG (standalone)
1
0.55
0.70
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, transition risk: Traded products, UBS Switzerland AG (standalone)
1
0.80
1.27
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, transition risk: Traded products, UBS Europe SE (standalone)
1
0.05
0.09
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, transition risk: Issuer risk, UBS AG (standalone)
2
6.98
6.05
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, transition risk: Issuer risk, UBS Switzerland AG (standalone)
2
0.51
0.25
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, transition risk: Issuer risk, UBS Europe SE (standalone)
2
0.04
0.10
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, physical risk: Traded products, UBS AG (standalone)
1
1.24
1.23
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, physical risk: Traded products, UBS Switzerland AG (standalone)
1
0.09
0.21
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, physical risk: Traded products, UBS Europe SE (standalone)
1
0.26
0.24
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, physical risk: Issuer risk, UBS AG (standalone)
2
7.10
7.76
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, physical risk: Issuer risk, UBS Switzerland AG (standalone)
2
0.50
0.40
Exposure to climate-sensitive sectors, physical risk: Issuer risk, UBS Europe SE (standalone)
2
0.01
0.05
1
For traded products, the metric is calculated using over-the-counter derivatives,
exchange-traded derivatives and securities financing transactions, consisting of securities borrowing and lending, and repurchase and
reverse repurchase agreements.
2
For issuer risk, the metric is calculated based on high-quality liquid assets, debt
securities, bonds and liquidity buffer securities.
›
Refer to the Basis of preparation 2025, available at
ubs.com/sustainability-reporting
, for more information on the metrics’
definitions, approaches and scope
Scenario analysis
UBS has
been using
scenario-based approaches
since 2014
to assess
its exposure
to climate-related
transition and
physical
risks. The table below summarizes scenarios used by UBS.
Developed
Used by
End of century
Description (as provided by the developing organization)
Early Action
UBS
UBS Europe SE
+1.5°C by
2100. In
alignment with
the Paris
Agreement
Orderly
An ambitious transition begins immediately, with stringent climate policies limiting
global warming to 1.5°C. Carbon prices and regulations rise predictably, allowing
most firms to adjust smoothly, although carbon-intensive sectors face higher
costs. This creates short-term inflation and growth headwinds. Over the long term,
the effective transition substantially reduces physical risks and supports
sustainable economic growth. Benchmark: NGFS Net Zero 2050 scenario.
Current
Commitments
UBS
UBS Group
Above +2.0 °C
by 2100. NDCs
are insufficient
to limit global
warming to
below 2°C
Hot house
world
Under current climate pledges, emissions decline only modestly, driving global
warming beyond +2°C, resulting in moderate to severe physical risks. The
modest
policy tightening limits transition impacts and does little to reduce fossil-fuel
dependence. Near
-
term macroeconomic effects remain mild, with minor growth
headwinds. As physical risks intensify, economies face increasing volatility,
persistent inflation pressures, and modest long
-
run productivity growth.
Benchmark: NGFS Nationally Determined Contributions scenario.
Failed Transition
UBS
+3.0°C by
2100. Due to a
lack of
coordinated
mitigation.
Hot house
world
A series of severe weather events triggers strong public and political pressure for
rapid action, leading to an abrupt tightening of climate policies. Carbon prices and
regulations rise sharply, causing a sudden repricing of exposed assets, particularly
in emission
-
intensive sectors. This combination of acute physical risks and abrupt
transition measures creates an inflationary shock, major market disruption, and a
global downturn as central banks raise rates. Public support then reverses, policies
are rolled back, and - over the long term - the lack of sustained climate action
leads to rising physical risks, persistent inflation pressures, and subdued economic
performance. Benchmark: NGFS Fragmented World, NGFS Current Policies.
30-year Baseline
UBS
UBS Europe SE
Above +2.0 °C
by 2100. NDCs
are insufficient
to limit global
warming to
below 2 °C.
Hot house
world
An outlook that outlines the most likely economic and financial developments over
the next ten years, complemented by long-term projections that reflect the macro
financial impacts of climate pledges over a 30-year horizon. Benchmark: NGFS
Nationally Determined Contributions.
Late Action
UBS
UBS Europe SE
Below + 2.0 °C
by 2100. Thanks
to delayed but
effective
policies.
Disorderly
A delayed and disorderly transition keeps climate policies unchanged for a decade,
despite rising physical risks. Strong growth, low inflation, and solid market
performance continue through these early years, while physical damages remain
manageable. In the second decade, abrupt and radical policies are introduced to
limit warming to below 2°C. Carbon prices surge, halting GDP growth, raising
unemployment, and pushing inflation higher. Tighter
monetary policy follows.
After this turbulent adjustment, economic and financial conditions stabilize and
begin to recover. Benchmark: NGFS Delayed Transition.