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Vale (VALE) sees base metals at 30–35% of EBITDA and big 2026 cash range

Filing Impact
(Neutral)
Filing Sentiment
(Neutral)
Form Type
6-K

Rhea-AI Filing Summary

Vale S.A. updated long-term estimates for its base metals subsidiary, Vale Base Metals Ltd. (VBM). Based on current long-term assumptions, Vale now expects VBM to contribute roughly 30% to 35% of consolidated EBITDA from 2035 onward, using analyst-based price assumptions and previously disclosed production projections.

For 2026, Vale estimates VBM’s Free Cash Flow could range from about US$0.4 billion to US$1.9 billion in real terms. This range reflects low and high sell-side price estimates for copper of about US$11,600/t to US$13,200/t, nickel of about US$15,000/t to US$18,100/t, and gold of about US$4,300 to US$5,500 per troy ounce. Vale emphasizes these figures are forward-looking estimates that may differ materially from actual results due to market, macroeconomic, operational and other risk factors.

Positive

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Insights

Vale highlights VBM as a larger long-term EBITDA and cash flow driver.

Vale indicates that Vale Base Metals (VBM) could supply 30–35% of consolidated EBITDA from 2035 onward, underscoring management’s focus on copper, nickel and gold as strategic growth pillars alongside iron ore.

The wide US$0.4–US$1.9B VBM Free Cash Flow range for 2026 shows strong sensitivity to commodity prices, especially copper and nickel. Actual outcomes will depend on realized prices and operational performance, as the company explicitly warns these are hypothetical, forward-looking estimates.

VBM EBITDA share 30%–35% of consolidated EBITDA Expected contribution from 2035 onward
VBM 2026 Free Cash Flow (low end) US$0.4 billion Estimated 2026 Free Cash Flow in real terms
VBM 2026 Free Cash Flow (high end) US$1.9 billion Estimated 2026 Free Cash Flow in real terms
Copper price range US$11,600/t – US$13,200/t Low and high sell-side estimates used for 2026
Nickel price range US$15,000/t – US$18,100/t Low and high sell-side estimates used for 2026
Gold price range US$4,300 – US$5,500/tr. oz Low and high sell-side estimates used for 2026
EBITDA financial
"VBM may account for approximately 30% to 35% of the Company’s consolidated EBITDA from 2035 onwards."
EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. It measures a company's profitability by focusing on the money it makes from its core operations, ignoring expenses like taxes and accounting adjustments. Investors use EBITDA to compare how well different companies are performing financially, as it provides a clearer picture of operational success without the influence of financial structure or accounting choices.
Free Cash Flow financial
"Vale estimates that VBM’s Free Cash Flow in 2026 may range approximately between US$0.4 billion and US$1.9 billion."
Free cash flow is the amount of money a company has left over after paying all its expenses and investing in its business, like buying equipment or updating facilities. It shows how much cash is available to reward shareholders, pay down debt, or save for future growth. This helps investors understand if a company is financially healthy and able to grow.
forward‑looking statements regulatory
"the information disclosed in this press release consists of estimates and forward‑looking statements, prepared based on assumptions and hypothetical data"
Forward-looking statements are predictions, plans, projections or expectations about a company’s future results, strategy, or events that appear in press releases and regulatory filings. They matter to investors because they are not guarantees and often rely on assumptions that may prove wrong; think of them like a weather forecast useful for planning but uncertain, so investors should weigh those statements against hard facts, past performance and disclosed risks.
Reference Form regulatory
"All other estimates disclosed by the Company in item 3 of its Reference Form remain unchanged."
CVM Resolution No. 80/2022 regulatory
"in accordance with the deadline set forth in CVM Resolution No. 80/2022."

FAQ

What long-term EBITDA contribution does Vale (VALE) expect from Vale Base Metals?
Vale estimates Vale Base Metals may contribute about 30% to 35% of consolidated EBITDA from 2035 onward. This guidance is based on long-term price assumptions for copper, nickel and gold and previously disclosed production projections for its main commodities.

What Free Cash Flow does Vale (VALE) forecast for Vale Base Metals in 2026?
Vale projects Vale Base Metals’ 2026 Free Cash Flow between US$0.4 billion and US$1.9 billion in real terms. The wide range reflects sensitivity to different commodity price scenarios derived from sell-side analyst estimates for copper, nickel and gold.

Which commodity price assumptions underpin Vale’s 2026 Vale Base Metals cash flow range?
Vale uses low and high sell-side estimates for 2026: copper at about US$11,600/t to US$13,200/t, nickel at about US$15,000/t to US$18,100/t, and gold at roughly US$4,300 to US$5,500 per troy ounce to build the Free Cash Flow range.

Are Vale’s new Vale Base Metals estimates guaranteed outcomes for VALE investors?
No, Vale stresses these are estimates and forward-looking statements based on assumptions and hypothetical data. Actual results can differ materially due to market conditions, macroeconomic factors, operational performance and risks described in its periodic reports to CVM and SEC.

Does Vale’s updated guidance change previously disclosed estimates for VALE?
Vale states that all other estimates disclosed in item 3 of its Reference Form remain unchanged. Only the Vale Base Metals EBITDA contribution guidance and the 2026 Free Cash Flow sensitivity analysis are being updated and will be restated in the Reference Form in due course.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Form 6-K: How Foreign Companies Report to the SEC →

 

 

 

United States

Securities and Exchange Commission

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

FORM 6-K

 

Report of Foreign Private Issuer

Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16

of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

For the month of

 

March 2026

 

Vale S.A.

 

Praia de Botafogo nº 186, 18º andar, Botafogo
22250-145 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

(Address of principal executive office)

 

(Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.)

 

(Check One) Form 20-F x Form 40-F ¨

 

 

 

 
 

Vale informs on estimates update Rio de Janeiro, March 31, 2026 – Vale S.A. (“Vale” or the “Company”) informs that it has updated certain estimates previously disclosed to the market, including: (i) the inclusion of indicative guidance regarding the potential contribution of its subsidiary Vale Base Metals Ltd. (“VBM”) to the Company’s consolidated EBITDA in the long term; and (ii) an update to the sensitivity analysis of VBM’s cash flow for the 2026 fiscal year. VBM contribution to Vale’s EBITDA: Based on its current long‑term assumptions and expectations, Vale estimates that its subsidiary VBM may account for approximately 30% to 35% of the Company’s consolidated EBITDA from 2035 onwards. This estimate considers, as its main assumptions: (i) long‑term price assumptions for copper, nickel and gold, based on the average of sell‑side analysts’ estimates available as of February 2026; and (ii) long‑term production projections for iron ore, nickel and copper, as previously disclosed to the market by Vale. VBM Free Cash Flow: Vale estimates that VBM’s Free Cash Flow in 2026 may range approximately between US$0.4 billion and US$1.9 billion, in real terms. This estimate is based on: (i) low and high price estimates from sell side analysts for copper (approximately US$11,600/t and US$13,200/t, respectively), for nickel (approximately US$15,000/t and US$18,100/t, respectively); and gold price (approximately US$4,300/tr. oz and US$5,500/tr. oz, respectively). All other estimates disclosed by the Company in item 3 of its Reference Form remain unchanged. The aforementioned item of the Company’s Reference Form will be restated to reflect the updates described above in due course, in accordance with the deadline set forth in CVM Resolution No. 80/2022. Vale clarifies that the information disclosed in this press release consists of estimates and forward‑looking statements, prepared based on assumptions and hypothetical data, and does not represent any promise, guarantee or commitment of performance by the Company or its management. Actual results may differ materially due to market conditions, macroeconomic factors, operational performance and other risks described in the Company’s periodic filings with the CVM and the SEC. Marcelo Feriozzi Bacci Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations For further information, please contact: Vale.RI@vale.com Thiago Lofiego: thiago.lofiego@vale.com Luciana Oliveti: luciana.oliveti@vale.com Pedro Terra: pedro.terra@vale.com Patricia Tinoco: patricia.tinoco@vale.com This press release may include statements that present Vale’s expectations about future events or results. All statements, when based upon expectations about the future, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form 20-F. Press Release   

 

 

 
 

Signatures

 

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.

 

  Vale S.A.
(Registrant)  
   
  By: /s/ Thiago Lofiego
Date: March 31, 2026   Director of Investor Relations

 

Source: View Original Filing on SEC EDGAR