Vale (VALE) projects 2026 FCFE of up to US$ 5.7B and US$ 3.5B copper CAPEX
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Vale S.A. updated its estimates for copper project investments and 2026 cash flow. The company now expects to invest US$ 3.5 billion in copper projects in the Carajás region between 2026 and 2030, with annual CAPEX rising from US$ 0.3 billion in 2026 to US$ 1.1 billion in 2030. These investments include the Bacaba project, which is under implementation.
Vale estimates Base Metals’ Free Cash Flow of about US$ 1.1 billion in 2026, in real terms, based on forward copper prices of US$ 12,738–12,870 per metric ton and nickel prices of US$ 17,133–17,691 per metric ton from March to December. It also projects Free Cash Flow to Equity of US$ 4.6–5.7 billion in 2026, implying an FCFE yield of approximately 7.0–8.5%. These FCFE figures use sell-side 2026 pro forma EBITDA consensus of US$ 17.5 billion and assume CAPEX of US$ 5.4–5.7 billion, net financial expenses and taxes of US$ 2.1–2.5 billion, around US$ 0.7 billion of Brumadinho and dam decharacterization expenses, US$ 0.9–1.1 billion related to associates and joint ventures, and US$ 2.7–2.9 billion of other disbursements.
Vale highlights that these are expectations based on current market conditions and may change, and it will update its Brazilian Reference Form to reflect the new estimates.
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Insights
Vale outlines sizable copper CAPEX and 2026 cash flow expectations.
Vale is signaling a strong push in copper with planned Carajás-region CAPEX of US$ 3.5 billion over 2026–2030. The step-up from US$ 0.3 billion to US$ 1.1 billion annually suggests a multi-year growth agenda anchored by projects such as Bacaba.
For 2026, the company frames Base Metals’ Free Cash Flow at about US$ 1.1 billion and total Free Cash Flow to Equity at US$ 4.6–5.7 billion, implying an FCFE yield of 7.0–8.5% on the referenced market cap. These figures rest on a US$ 17.5 billion pro forma EBITDA consensus and detailed assumptions for CAPEX and cash outflows.
Cash outlays include US$ 5.4–5.7 billion CAPEX, US$ 2.1–2.5 billion in net financial expenses and taxes, about US$ 0.7 billion tied to Brumadinho and dam decharacterization, US$ 0.9–1.1 billion for associates and joint ventures, and US$ 2.7–2.9 billion of other disbursements. The company stresses these are forward-looking estimates subject to commodity prices, macro conditions, and regulatory factors in its main operating countries.
United States
Securities and Exchange Commission
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
Report of Foreign Private Issuer
Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16
of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the month of
February 2026
Vale S.A.
Praia de Botafogo nº 186, 18º andar,
Botafogo
22250-145 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
(Address of principal executive office)
(Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.)
(Check One) Form 20-F x Form 40-F ¨
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Press Release |
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Vale informs on estimates update
Rio de Janeiro, February 23rd, 2026 - Vale S.A. ("Vale" or "Company") informs that it has updated the estimates related cash flow sensitivity and the capital investment schedule for copper projects, to be presented today during the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference, in Florida:
Copper projects CAPEX schedule:
Annual investments for copper projects in the Carajás region: US$ 0.3 billion in 2026; US$ 0.4 billion in 2027; US$ 0.8 billion in 2028; US$ 0.9 billion in 2029 and US$ 1.1 billion in 2030, totaling US$ 3.5 billion in 2026-2030 period. These estimates are based on the investments planned to develop the copper growth projects in the Carajás region, including Bacaba project which is under implementation.
Free Cash Flow:
Sensitivity of Vale Base Metals’ Free Cash Flow totaling approximately US$ 1.1 billion in 2026, in real terms, based on current forward price curves, with copper prices ranging from US$ 12,738 to 12,870 per metric ton from March to December and nickel prices ranging from US$ 17,133 to 17,691 per metric ton in the same period.
Sensitivity of Vale's Free Cash Flow to Equity (“FCFE”) totaling of US$ 4.6-5.7 billion in 2026, in real terms, representing ~7.0-8.5% FCFE yield, based on the following assumptions: (a) 2026 Proforma EBITDA Consensus from sell-side analysts of US$ 17.5 billion; (b) US$5.4-5.7 billion CAPEX; (c) US$2.1-2.5 billion net financial expenses and taxes; (d) ~US$0.7 billion incurred expenses related to Brumadinho and dams decharacterization; (e) US$ 0.9-1.1 billion related to Associates and JV’s and, (f) US$ 2.7-2.9 billion for Others disbursements, such as interest payments on shareholders debentures, disbursements related to railway concession contracts, streaming transactions and others.
The FCFE yields were calculated based on the closing market cap on February 19, 2026.
All other estimates indicated by Vale in the item 3 of its Reference Form remain unchanged. The referred item of the Company’s Reference Form will be filed again with the above update in due course, within the period required by the Resolution CVM No. 80/2022.
The company clarifies that the information provided in this document represents only expectations, hypothetical data that by no means constitute a promise of performance by Vale and/or its management. The estimates presented involve market factors that are beyond Vale’s control and, therefore, can be subject to new changes.
Marcelo Feriozzi Bacci
Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations
For further information, please contact:
Vale.RI@vale.com
Thiago Lofiego: thiago.lofiego@vale.com
Luciana Oliveti: luciana.oliveti@vale.com
Pedro Terra: pedro.terra@vale.com
Patricia Tinoco: patricia.tinoco@vale.com
This press release may include statements that present Vale’s expectations about future events or results. All statements, when based upon expectations about the future, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form 20-F.
Signatures
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
| Vale S.A. (Registrant) | ||
| By: | /s/ Thiago Lofiego | |
| Date: February 23, 2026 | Director of Investor Relations | |