Stronger 2025 earnings at Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) set 2026 cash flow goals
Rhea-AI Filing Summary
Waste Connections reported higher fourth quarter and full year 2025 results and issued a 2026 outlook. Q4 2025 revenue rose to $2.37 billion from $2.26 billion, with adjusted EBITDA increasing to $795.6 million and margin improving to 33.5%.
For 2025, revenue grew to $9.47 billion and net income rose to $1.08 billion, or $4.17 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.13 billion with a 33.0% margin, and adjusted free cash flow was $1.26 billion. The company completed about $330 million of acquired annualized revenue and repurchased over $500 million of shares. For 2026, it targets adjusted EBITDA of $3.30–$3.33 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.40–$1.45 billion, implying double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow.
Positive
- Significant earnings and margin expansion in 2025: Net income rose to $1.08 billion, adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.13 billion with margin improving to 33.0%, and Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 110 basis points year over year.
- Strong cash generation and capital deployment: Adjusted free cash flow reached $1.26 billion, alongside approximately $330 million in acquired annualized revenue and over $500 million of share repurchases, while maintaining leverage at 2.75 times.
- Constructive 2026 outlook: Management projects adjusted EBITDA of $3.30–$3.33 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.40–$1.45 billion for 2026, targeting double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow.
Negative
- None.
Insights
Strong 2025 earnings, margin gains and a solid 2026 cash flow outlook are favorable for Waste Connections.
Waste Connections delivered 2025 revenue of $9.47 billion and net income of $1.08 billion, a substantial increase from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $3.13 billion with a 33.0% margin, showing continued operating leverage despite environmental-related impairments.
Cash generation remained robust, with adjusted free cash flow of $1.26 billion. Management deployed capital into about $330 million of acquired annualized revenue and over $500 million of share repurchases, while ending 2025 with leverage of 2.75 times, indicating balance sheet capacity.
The 2026 outlook calls for adjusted EBITDA of $3.30–$3.33 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.40–$1.45 billion, reflecting targeted double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow. Execution against these targets, including margin expansion and acquisition integration during 2026, will help indicate how durable current performance trends are.

