Friday’s Jobs Report Follows Six Months of Pay Rising Slower Than Prices
The October jobs report comes out Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and economists expect 59,000 to 65,000 new jobs after September’s 29,000, in surveys by Dow Jones and Reuters. The number to watch is pay: hourly earnings have trailed consumer prices for six straight months, and holding wage growth at 3% takes a 13-cent rise.
The short answer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report October’s hiring, unemployment rate and pay on Friday morning. Average hourly pay rose 3.0% in the year to September, below the 3.7% rise in consumer prices, so a paycheck bought a little less than a year earlier. Pay jumped a year ago, so October needs a rise as big as any month of 2026 to keep that 3.0% pace. The Fed reads the figure before its December meeting.
What to know before the jobs report
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When is the next jobs report?
The next jobs report comes out Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. It covers October. Forecasters expect a small gain of 59,000 to 65,000 jobs and no change in the unemployment rate.
The report is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation, and the agency’s schedule confirms the date. It rests on two surveys. A survey of employers counts jobs, hours and pay. A survey of households measures who is working and who is looking for work, which gives the unemployment rate.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 59,000 new jobs in October, in the consensus as it stood on the morning of Wednesday, November 4. A Reuters survey of economists, published the same morning, puts the gain at 65,000 and expects the jobless rate to stay at 4.2%. In September, employers added only 29,000 jobs, according to the September jobs report.
The ADP National Employment Report came out Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET and said private employers added 86,000 jobs in October. ADP says its count comes from the weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees who are its clients’ workers. The BLS report surveys employers and households, covers government jobs too, and is the official count.
Are wages keeping up with inflation?
No. Hourly pay has grown more slowly than prices for six months in a row, from April through September. In September, pay was up 3.0% from a year earlier and prices were up 3.7%.
Average hourly earnings of all private employees rose to $37.81 in September, 3.0% more than a year earlier. Over the same stretch, the consumer price index rose 3.7%, and gasoline drove over half of September’s increase, the BLS said.
The BLS measures the gap as real average hourly earnings, which is pay divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Its real earnings report says that measure fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026. People worked slightly longer weeks, so real average weekly earnings fell less, by 0.1%.
September was not a one-off. In every month from April to September 2026, the 12-month rise in average hourly earnings was smaller than the 12-month rise in consumer prices. The last stretch that long ran from April 2021 to April 2023.
Show the data
| Category | Average hourly pay | Consumer prices | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan ’24 | 4.4% | 3.1% | |
| Feb ’24 | 4.1% | 3.2% | |
| Mar ’24 | 4.1% | 3.5% | |
| Apr ’24 | 4.0% | 3.4% | |
| May ’24 | 4.1% | 3.2% | |
| Jun ’24 | 3.9% | 3.0% | |
| Jul ’24 | 3.6% | 2.9% | |
| Aug ’24 | 3.9% | 2.6% | |
| Sep ’24 | 3.9% | 2.4% | |
| Oct ’24 | 4.0% | 2.6% | |
| Nov ’24 | 4.2% | 2.7% | |
| Dec ’24 | 4.1% | 2.9% | |
| Jan ’25 | 4.0% | 3.0% | |
| Feb ’25 | 4.1% | 2.8% | |
| Mar ’25 | 4.2% | 2.4% | |
| Apr ’25 | 3.9% | 2.3% | |
| May ’25 | 4.0% | 2.4% | |
| Jun ’25 | 3.9% | 2.7% | |
| Jul ’25 | 4.0% | 2.7% | |
| Aug ’25 | 4.0% | 2.9% | |
| Sep ’25 | 3.8% | 3.0% | |
| Nov ’25 | 3.9% | 2.7% | The BLS price series has no October 2025 reading, so the chart skips that month |
| Dec ’25 | 3.7% | 2.7% | |
| Jan ’26 | 3.7% | 2.4% | |
| Feb ’26 | 3.7% | 2.4% | |
| Mar ’26 | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| Apr ’26 | 3.6% | 3.8% | Pay growth falls below price growth |
| May ’26 | 3.3% | 4.2% | |
| Jun ’26 | 3.4% | 3.5% | |
| Jul ’26 | 3.2% | 3.3% | |
| Aug ’26 | 3.1% | 3.4% | |
| Sep ’26 | 3.0% | 3.7% |
Last October’s pay jump raises the bar for this year. In October 2025, hourly pay rose 15 cents to $36.85. For the 12-month rise to still read 3.0%, average hourly earnings would need to reach $37.94. That is 13 cents above September, as much as January’s rise, the biggest of 2026.
A smaller rise would show wage growth below 3% on Friday. The line is fine: a 12-cent rise and a 13-cent rise both round to 0.3% for the month, yet the first gives 2.9% over the year. Friday’s report can also revise September’s level, which would change the size of the rise needed, though not the $37.94 mark.
Friday gives only the pay side. October prices come in the consumer price index report on November 10.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Jan ’26 | 13 |
| Feb ’26 | 12 |
| Mar ’26 | 8 |
| Apr ’26 | 6 |
| May ’26 | 8 |
| Jun ’26 | 10 |
| Jul ’26 | 5 |
| Aug ’26 | 12 |
| Sep ’26 | 5 |
Show the data: illustrative October pay levels
| October 2026 average hourly earnings | Rise from September’s $37.81 | Change from October 2025’s $36.85, rounded as BLS rounds it |
|---|---|---|
| $37.81 | none | 2.6% |
| $37.86 | 5 cents | 2.7% |
| $37.91 | 10 cents | 2.9% |
| $37.93 | 12 cents | 2.9% |
| $37.94 | 13 cents | 3.0% |
| $38.01 | 20 cents | 3.1% |
Source: BLS average hourly earnings of all private employees, adjusted for normal seasonal swings, as published in the September 2026 release; the rows are arithmetic, not forecasts.
ADP’s own pay data, which follows the same workers over 12 months, shows a gap between base pay and total pay. Base pay rose 3.2% in the year to October, while gross pay, a broader measure, rose 4.7%. ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, said job changers were “lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay.”
How many jobs has the US added in 2026?
Employers added 612,000 jobs from January through September. That is more than double the pace of the same months in 2025, though the monthly numbers swing widely.
The 2026 total works out to about 68,000 jobs a month. From January through September 2025, payrolls grew by 232,000, or about 26,000 a month. Both are the totals as published with the September 2026 report, before the yearly correction due in February 2027. The gap fits what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 28: “payroll growth is noticeably above last year’s pace,” according to the press conference transcript.
Show the data
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Jun ’25 | -20K |
| Jul ’25 | 64K |
| Aug ’25 | -70K |
| Sep ’25 | 76K |
| Oct ’25 | -140K |
| Nov ’25 | 41K |
| Dec ’25 | -17K |
| Jan ’26 | 160K |
| Feb ’26 | -156K |
| Mar ’26 | 214K |
| Apr ’26 | 148K |
| May ’26 | 63K |
| Jun ’26 | 31K |
| Jul ’26 | -10K |
| Aug ’26 | 133K |
| Sep ’26 | 29K |
A small number is not unusual anymore. Governor Michael Barr said in a September 29 speech that “lower net immigration has reduced the number of new jobs needed to keep pace with growth in the labor force.” He put hiring then at around 80,000 a month, “close to reasonable estimates of its breakeven pace,” meaning the gain that keeps unemployment steady.
Since that speech, revisions have trimmed the summer months, as the section on revisions below explains. Health care is still the steadiest source of new jobs, adding 17,000 in September, while financial activities has lost 129,000 jobs since May 2025.
Why is unemployment steady when hiring is slow?
A smaller share of adults is working or looking for work, and few people are being laid off. The unemployment rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.
The share of adults in the labor force fell from 62.5% in September 2025 to 61.8% in September 2026. Among people aged 25 to 54, the share with a job did not change. Barr said lower immigration has reduced the hiring needed to keep pace with the labor force, which is one likely reason a slow pace has not pushed unemployment higher.
Layoffs stay low. The latest job openings report, released Tuesday, counted 1.6 million layoffs and discharges in September, and the number of people quitting rose. People tend to quit when they expect to find another job. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits are also low.
| Measure | Latest | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Job openings | 7.5 million | September 2026 |
| Layoffs and discharges | 1.6 million | September 2026 |
| Quits | 3.4 million, up 375,000 from a year earlier | September 2026 |
| Initial claims for unemployment benefits | 194,000, the fewest since the week to July 18 | Week to October 24, 2026 |
| Employment share, ages 25 to 54 | 80.7%, the same as a year earlier | September 2026 |
Source: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover, September 2026; Department of Labor weekly claims and BLS household survey data via FRED.
Why was the jobs report revised?
Each jobs report revises the two months before it, because more employers send in their numbers late. A bigger yearly correction is due in February 2027, and early signs point to a small cut.
The September report lowered July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000. It lowered August from 162,000 to 133,000. The BLS says these monthly revisions come from late reports and from recalculating seasonal factors, the adjustments for normal swings such as holiday hiring. Friday’s report will revise August and September in the same way.
Once a year, the agency also lines its count up with state unemployment insurance records, which cover nearly every employer. Its preliminary estimate says that correction will lower the March 2026 job count by 79,000, or 0.1%. That change enters the official numbers only in February 2027, with the January report, so Friday’s figures do not include it.
What the jobs report means for the Fed and the stock market
The Fed held rates on October 28 and said more information would decide its next step. Friday’s report is one of two jobs reports before its December meeting.
Two officials, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, voted on October 28 to raise rates, while the rest kept the target range at 3.75% to 4%. The October 28 statement said “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” It added that “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance” needed to bring inflation back to its goal. The next decision comes December 9.
On prices, the statement says “Inflation remains elevated” and “The Committee will deliver price stability.” Warsh called conditions on the jobs side “quite positive” and said getting inflation down is the Fed’s responsibility. In September, 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more quarter-point increase by the end of 2026, as our coverage of the October decision details.
Pay matters to the Fed because wages are a cost that companies can pass on in prices. How much that happens depends partly on how much more workers produce each hour, and the statement says “Productivity growth is strong.” A jump in hourly pay or a hot payroll number on Friday would be among the figures officials weigh before December.
Bond and stock investors watch the same figures. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.59% on November 2, 0.59 point above the 4% top of the Fed’s range. That yield tends to move with the rates investors expect from the Fed, so the gap is a sign they expect rates to go higher. Higher expected rates make borrowing costlier for companies, which is one way a strong or weak report can move stocks soon after 8:30 a.m.
What to watch
- How consumer prices changed in October: the BLS consumer price index for October, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Whether hiring and pay hold up into the fall: the November jobs report, December 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Whether officials still see a higher rate by year end: the Fed decision and new projections, December 9.
- What the final yearly correction to the March 2026 job count is: the final benchmark revision with the January 2027 jobs report in February 2027.
Our numbers
These figures are our calculations from the sources linked in this article. October 2025 has no consumer price reading, so the pay and price comparison skips that month.
- Six months: from April through September 2026, the 12-month rise in average hourly earnings was below the 12-month rise in consumer prices each month; the last such stretch ran from April 2021 to April 2023.
- $37.94 and 13 cents: the October 2026 average hourly earnings that round to a 3.0% rise over October 2025’s $36.85, and its distance from September’s $37.81.
- 612,000 jobs, about 68,000 a month: the change in nonfarm payrolls from December 2025 to September 2026, against 232,000 over the same months a year earlier.
- 0.59 point: the 2-year Treasury yield of 4.59% on November 2 minus the 4% top of the Fed’s target range.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the jobs report released?
The BLS releases the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The October 2026 report comes out Friday, November 6, and the November report follows on Friday, December 4.
Is the ADP jobs report the same as the BLS jobs report?
No. ADP publishes its own count of private jobs, built from the payroll data of more than 26 million employees of its clients, two days before the government report. Its October report, released November 4 at 8:15 a.m. ET, said private employers added 86,000 jobs. The BLS report on Friday is the official count and also covers government jobs and the unemployment rate.
Who creates the jobs report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the US Department of Labor, publishes it. It combines a monthly survey of employers with a monthly survey of households.
Is the jobs report accurate?
Each first estimate is revised twice in the following months as late survey responses arrive, and once a year it is lined up with unemployment insurance records. The September report cut July and August by 60,000 jobs combined, and the yearly correction due in February 2027 is estimated at 79,000 jobs, or 0.1%.
How does the jobs report affect the stock market?
Investors read it for what it means for interest rates. Strong hiring or fast pay growth can raise expectations of Fed rate increases, which lifts bond yields and makes borrowing costlier for companies. Weak figures can do the opposite. The direction on any given day depends on what investors expected.
Sources
- StockTitan: Fed Rate Decision, October 28, 2026
- StockTitan: September 2026 CPI report
- StockTitan: ADP National Employment Report, October 2026
- BLS, Employment Situation release schedule
- BLS, The Employment Situation, September 2026
- BLS, Real Earnings, September 2026
- BLS, Consumer Price Index, September 2026
- BLS, Consumer Price Index release schedule
- BLS, Job Openings and Labor Turnover, September 2026
- BLS, preliminary benchmark revision, March 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026
- Federal Reserve, press conference transcript (preliminary), October 28, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Governor Barr speech, September 29, 2026
- Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026
- FRED, average hourly earnings (BLS)
- FRED, consumer price index (BLS)
- FRED, total nonfarm payrolls (BLS)
- FRED, labor force participation rate (BLS)
- FRED, initial claims (Department of Labor)
- FRED, 2-year Treasury yield (Federal Reserve)
- FRED, employment-population ratio, ages 25 to 54 (BLS)
The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an endorsement of any particular investment strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.