Progressive Earnings: Car Insurance Is Getting Cheaper
Car insurance in the United States cost 5.0% less in September 2026 than a year earlier, according to the consumer price index the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on October 14. Progressive’s September and third quarter results, out the same morning, show that easing from inside a company with 28.2 million personal auto policies. By our estimate from Progressive’s own filings, the premiums it wrote per vehicle policy in the third quarter of 2026 were about 3.2% lower than a year before, a rough gauge that also moves with policy length and business mix, while it still kept $11.30 of every $100 of premiums as profit from insuring people, almost three times its 4% goal for the full year.
Three numbers on car insurance prices and Progressive’s profit
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Car insurance costs 5% less than a year ago
The official measure of what American households pay for car insurance has now been below its year-earlier level for five months in a row. The motor vehicle insurance index in the September 2026 consumer price index was 5.0% lower than in September 2025, after a 5.1% yearly drop in August, 4.5% in July, 4.1% in June and 2.0% in May (BLS, CPI table 2; earlier months from the BLS series CUUR0000SETE).
That run is unusual. In the BLS series CUUR0000SETE, which we pulled back to January 1986, the August and September 2026 readings are the deepest yearly declines outside the pandemic period from April 2020 to March 2021. Every other dip below zero in that span, in 1998 and 1999, 2007 and 2019, was smaller than 1%.
Show the data
| Category | Change from a year earlier | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | 10.3% | |
| Oct 2022 | 12.9% | |
| Nov 2022 | 13.4% | |
| Dec 2022 | 14.2% | |
| Jan 2023 | 14.7% | |
| Feb 2023 | 14.5% | |
| Mar 2023 | 15.0% | |
| Apr 2023 | 15.5% | |
| May 2023 | 17.1% | |
| Jun 2023 | 16.9% | |
| Jul 2023 | 17.8% | |
| Aug 2023 | 19.1% | |
| Sep 2023 | 18.9% | |
| Oct 2023 | 19.2% | |
| Nov 2023 | 19.2% | |
| Dec 2023 | 20.3% | |
| Jan 2024 | 20.6% | |
| Feb 2024 | 20.6% | |
| Mar 2024 | 22.2% | |
| Apr 2024 | 22.6% | Yearly increase peaks at 22.6% |
| May 2024 | 20.3% | |
| Jun 2024 | 19.5% | |
| Jul 2024 | 18.6% | |
| Aug 2024 | 16.5% | |
| Sep 2024 | 16.3% | |
| Oct 2024 | 14.0% | |
| Nov 2024 | 12.7% | |
| Dec 2024 | 11.3% | |
| Jan 2025 | 11.8% | |
| Feb 2025 | 11.1% | |
| Mar 2025 | 7.5% | |
| Apr 2025 | 6.4% | |
| May 2025 | 7.0% | |
| Jun 2025 | 6.1% | |
| Jul 2025 | 5.3% | |
| Aug 2025 | 4.7% | |
| Sep 2025 | 3.1% | |
| Dec 2025 | 2.8% | |
| Jan 2026 | 0.5% | Increase slows to 0.5% |
| Feb 2026 | 0.2% | |
| Mar 2026 | 0.8% | |
| Apr 2026 | 0.2% | |
| May 2026 | -2.0% | First yearly decline since early 2021 |
| Jun 2026 | -4.1% | |
| Jul 2026 | -4.5% | |
| Aug 2026 | -5.1% | |
| Sep 2026 | -5.0% | Prices 5.0% below a year earlier |
There is a catch in the September number, and it matters for anyone hoping the slide continues. After seasonal adjustment the index rose 0.1% from August to September, its first monthly increase after four straight declines from May through August, and the BLS listed motor vehicle insurance among the indexes that "also increased over the month." One month is a small signal. It interrupts a run of seasonally adjusted monthly declines, while the yearly figure, which is not seasonally adjusted, also depends on how prices moved a year earlier, so the September pause does not by itself say where the yearly change goes next.
It also helps to remember where prices started. Even after the decline, the index stood about 47% above its January 2022 level in September 2026, after a climb that peaked at a 22.6% yearly increase in April 2024. Drivers are paying less than last year, but a long way from what they paid before the post-pandemic run-up, and for comparison all consumer prices rose 3.7% over the same twelve months, so car insurance is moving against the general rise in prices. Our September CPI report coverage walks through the rest of the inflation picture.
What the index measures. The BLS tracks the price of a fixed set of car insurance coverages over time, so it reflects rate changes on comparable policies. It does not show what any one driver pays, which also depends on the car, the address, the driving record and the coverage chosen. BLS collected no data for October and November 2025, so the series has a gap there.
Progressive’s third quarter in plain numbers
Progressive’s premiums grew more slowly than its customer count, and its profit from insurance stayed high. In the three months to September 30, 2026, net premiums written (the premiums on policies the company sold or renewed in the period, after reinsurance) rose 4% to $22,301 million, and policies in force rose 6% to 40.5 million, according to the company’s release. Net income for the quarter was $2,542 million, 3% lower than a year earlier, partly because its securities showed $170 million of pretax losses in the quarter against $295 million of gains a year before.
The figure insurers watch most is the combined ratio, which is claims plus running costs as a share of premiums earned. Anything under 100 means the company made money from insurance itself, before investment income. Progressive’s was 88.7 for the quarter, so for every $100 of premiums it earned, about $88.70 went to claims and expenses and $11.30 was left over. Over the first nine months of the year the split was a little wider, as the chart below shows. The company’s stated goal, in its second quarter 10-Q, is a "4% companywide calendar-year underwriting profit."
Show the data
| Part | Value | Squares |
|---|---|---|
| Claims and claim handling | $67 | 67 |
| Running costs and advertising | $20 | 20 |
| Underwriting profit | $13 | 13 |
The September headline needs one correction before anyone reads it as a turnaround. Net income for the month more than doubled to $630 million from $305 million, and the monthly combined ratio improved to 90.0 from 100.4. The improvement comes from a one-off cost in the year-earlier month: in September 2025 Progressive booked a $950 million credit owed to Florida drivers, because a Florida law caps how much profit an insurer can make on personal auto insurance over three years and Progressive expected to exceed it (September 2025 release). The company later said it paid "$1.2 billion Florida policyholder credits" in the first quarter of 2026, a one-time payment that is different from a lower premium at renewal.
Progressive had about 2.7 million Florida personal auto policyholders on September 30, 2025, when it booked the charge. Because the charge sits in last year’s numbers and not in this year’s, it also flatters this year’s comparison, as the next sections show.
Progressive is taking in less per policy
Progressive is signing up drivers faster than its premiums are growing, so each policy on its books brings in less premium on average than a year ago, a measure that reflects policy length and the mix of customers as well as prices. In every quarter since the start of 2025, the company’s premiums written have grown more slowly than its policy count, by 0.6 to 3.4 percentage points, according to our tally of its quarter-end releases filed with the SEC (for example the March 2026 and June 2026 results).
Show the data
| Item | Policy growth | Premium growth | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | 17.7% | 19.7% | +2.0 pts |
| Q1 2025 | 17.7% | 17.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Q2 2025 | 15.5% | 12.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Q3 2025 | 12.4% | 9.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Q4 2025 | 10.5% | 7.7% | -2.8 pts |
| Q1 2026 | 9.0% | 6.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Q2 2026 | 7.4% | 5.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Q3 2026 | 6.3% | 4.3% | -2.0 pts |
To isolate car customers, we divided Progressive’s personal vehicle premiums written (its agency and direct channels) by the number of personal vehicle policies in force. That count includes auto policies plus what Progressive calls special lines, mostly motorcycles, boats and RVs, because the company reports vehicle premiums for both together. On that basis, our estimate is that premium per vehicle policy was about 2.0% lower than a year earlier in the first quarter of 2026, 2.9% lower in the second quarter and 3.2% lower in the third.
It is a rough gauge, since premiums are counted over a quarter and policies on the last day of it, and it is not the price of comparable coverage, which the BLS index measures. It does point the same way as the company’s own disclosure. Progressive’s 10-Q for the second quarter said "average written premium per policy decreased 2%" in personal auto, and that "we took minimal personal auto rate decreases on a countrywide basis over the previous 12 months."
Lower rates are only part of the reason. Progressive’s 10-Q also points to a shift toward six-month policies, "which have about half of the amount of net premiums written as policies with 12-month terms," and in its agency channel premium per policy fell 4% in the second quarter while it was flat for policies sold directly. Some of the decline therefore reflects drivers choosing six-month terms, which lowers the amount per policy without lowering what a driver pays over a full year.
The other force is competition for the same customers. Progressive spent $1.4 billion on advertising in the second quarter of 2026, 16% more than a year earlier, and said its customers were staying for a shorter time, with the expected life of a personal auto policy down 8% from a year earlier, which it attributed "primarily" to "increased shopping and competition in the marketplace." Allstate described a similar push in its second quarter release, crediting its 2.8% growth in auto policies to "affordability initiatives, expanded distribution, increased marketing and new products," while GEICO’s owner Berkshire Hathaway cited "lower average premiums per policy for private passenger auto insurance" in its 10-Q.
The profit cushion behind lower prices
In our reading, the big insurers still have room to keep prices low because their profits remain high. Progressive’s 11.3% underwriting profit across all its lines in the third quarter is well above its 4% calendar-year goal, and Allstate’s auto business ran a combined ratio of 83.3 in the second quarter, which works out to about $16.70 of underwriting profit on every $100 of auto premiums earned.
| Progressive, Q3 2026 | Allstate auto, Q2 2026 | GEICO, Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business covered | All of Progressive | Allstate Protection auto | GEICO |
| Premiums written, change from a year earlier | +4.3% | +0.4% | +1.1% |
| Policies in force, change from a year earlier | +6.3% | +2.8% | Not disclosed |
| Combined ratio (under 100 is a profit) | 88.7 | 83.3 | 91.2 |
| Combined ratio, same quarter a year earlier | 89.5 (84.9 without Florida credit) | 86.0 | 83.5 |
That cushion is thinner than the headline ratio suggests. Progressive’s third quarter combined ratio of 88.7 looks 0.8 points better than the 89.5 a year earlier, but the Florida credit added 4.6 points to the 2025 quarter, according to the company’s third quarter 2025 10-Q. Take those points out and the year-earlier quarter was about 84.9, so by our calculation this year’s quarter was about 3.8 points less profitable once the 2025 Florida credit is excluded. That adjustment removes only that item, so storms and reserve changes stay in both years. Inside the quarter the drift was visible month by month, with combined ratios of 86.8 in July, 89.3 in August and 90.0 in September.
Part of Progressive’s own cushion also comes from older claims costing less than it had set aside: its complete September release shows $1,536 million of favorable development on prior years’ claims in the first nine months of 2026, about 2.4 points of premiums earned, and a loss ratio of 69.6 on the current year’s accidents against 67.2 for the period as booked.
The squeeze is uneven across the industry. GEICO’s ratio jumped to 91.2 in the second quarter from 83.5 a year earlier, and its underwriting profit fell to $994 million from $1,821 million. Allstate’s recorded 83.3 was helped by releasing reserves set aside for claims from earlier years; on its own "underlying" measure, which strips out those releases and catastrophe losses, the figure was 87.6, and the company said even that quarter "benefited from 2.4 points of favorable development on claims reported in the first quarter of 2026."
In our reading, the price cuts so far are being paid for out of an unusually fat margin. That margin narrowed at Progressive and sharply at GEICO, while Allstate’s auto ratio improved on both its recorded and underlying measures, helped in the recorded figure by those reserve releases.
Different quarters. Progressive reports monthly, so its figures run through September 2026. Allstate and GEICO have only reported through June 2026; their third quarter results are still to come, so the table compares Progressive’s third quarter with their second.
Repairs and injury claims still cost more
The costs that insurers pay out are still rising, which is one pressure on further price cuts. In the same September CPI, the index for motor vehicle maintenance and repair was 5.8% higher than a year earlier, while car insurance was 5.0% lower, and parts, new cars and used cars moved only a little.
Show the data
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| Car insurance | -5.0% |
| Maintenance and repair | +5.8% |
| Parts and equipment | +0.8% |
| New vehicles | +0.6% |
| Used cars and trucks | -1.5% |
| All consumer prices | +3.7% |
Progressive’s own claims data says the same. In the second quarter of 2026 the average cost of a personal auto claim rose 4% from a year earlier, led by a 7% increase in bodily injury claims, which the company tied to "higher medical costs, more large losses, and a higher rate of plaintiff-attorney represented claims." Fewer claims helped offset that, since claim frequency fell 2% (both figures leave out claims for storm, theft and glass damage, as the company reports them). Collision claims, the part most tied to repair shops and car parts, rose only 1% in cost.
GEICO reported a less comfortable mix for the first half of 2026, with bodily injury claim frequency up in the "five to seven percent range" and bodily injury severity up in the "ten to twelve percent range." In our reading, more claims that each cost more would narrow the room for further cuts faster than rising severity alone.
Claim cost per insured car depends on both numbers. As a rough illustration for the second quarter, 4% higher cost per claim and 2% fewer claims work out to about 2% more claim cost (1.04 times 0.98), in a quarter when Progressive said its premium per personal auto policy was 2% lower. In our reading, a gap like that eats into the profit cushion every quarter it continues. How long it lasts depends on claim trends no filing can promise, and on how hard insurers keep competing for drivers who are shopping around.
Signs the easing could stall
Several readings in the next two months would show whether the easing in car insurance prices is fading or continuing. One is already in the September data, since the 0.1% seasonally adjusted rise in the BLS index was its first monthly increase since April 2026.
Progressive’s own growth is another. Its total policies in force slipped to 40,489 thousand at the end of September from 40,492 thousand at the end of August, according to the August and September releases in our news database, the first monthly dip since November 2023, with direct auto policies (those sold online or by phone) falling by 31 thousand. It is a tiny change, and the counts alone do not say whether it reflects fewer new customers, more departures or deliberate caution. Progressive’s second quarter 10-Q called retention "one of our most important priorities" and tied shorter customer stays to competition, so how the company responds is the part to watch.
Then there is the profit drift. A combined ratio creeping toward 96 would bring Progressive close to its 4% target, which would leave it less room to keep prices low. The company’s monthly ratio was 90.0 in September 2026, against 86.8 in July.
The dates to mark are the October CPI, listed on our economic calendar; Progressive’s 10-Q, planned for November 2, 2026, the filing where the company has reported its official premium per policy in past quarters; its investor call on November 3; and its October results, planned for November 18. Allstate and Berkshire Hathaway have not yet reported third quarter numbers for their car insurance units, and the household credit picture from the big banks is in our JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings article.
Our method for these figures
The yearly changes in the car insurance index come from the BLS series CUUR0000SETE (US city average, not seasonally adjusted), pulled from the BLS data service on October 14, 2026 for January 1986 through September 2026; the monthly change uses the seasonally adjusted series CUSR0000SETE. The record statement compares every yearly change from January 1987 onward and leaves out April 2020 through March 2021, the pandemic period.
Premium per vehicle policy is our estimate. We took Progressive’s year-to-date personal vehicle premiums written for its agency and direct channels from each monthly release filed with the SEC, subtracted the previous quarter’s year-to-date figure to get each quarter, and computed (1 plus the yearly growth in those premiums) divided by (1 plus the yearly growth in auto plus special lines policies in force at quarter end), minus 1. The companywide growth rates in the dumbbell chart come from the quarter columns and policy totals of the same releases. The combined ratio excluding the Florida credit subtracts the company’s own 4.6 point Florida figure from the reported 89.5 and changes nothing else in either year. Underwriting profit per $100 is 100 minus the combined ratio.
Frequently asked questions
Are car insurance rates going down in 2026?
On the official measure, yes. The BLS motor vehicle insurance index was 5.0% lower in September 2026 than a year earlier, the fifth month in a row below its year-earlier level, though it rose 0.1% from August after seasonal adjustment. What any one driver pays depends on the policy, the car and where they live.
Why did Progressive’s September profit double?
Mostly because the year-earlier month carried a $950 million charge for credits owed to Florida policyholders under a state cap on auto insurance profits. Net income rose to $630 million from $305 million, while third quarter net income fell 3%.
What is a combined ratio in insurance?
It is claims plus operating costs divided by premiums earned. Below 100 means the insurer made a profit on its policies before investment income; Progressive’s 88.7 in the third quarter of 2026 means about $11.30 of profit on every $100 of premiums earned.
Did Progressive cut its car insurance rates?
Only a little, by its own account. Its second quarter 10-Q described "minimal personal auto rate decreases" over the prior twelve months, along with a 2% drop in average premium per personal auto policy, partly from a shift toward six-month policies.
Where can I follow Progressive’s monthly results on StockTitan?
Progressive’s releases, including its monthly results, appear on its StockTitan overview page as they are published, and its reported numbers are on the Progressive financials page. Inflation releases such as the CPI are tracked on our economy dashboard.
Sources
- Progressive Reports September 2026 Results, StockTitan
- Progressive Reports August 2026 Results, StockTitan
- Progressive overview, StockTitan
- Progressive financials, StockTitan
- September 2026 CPI report, StockTitan
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics
- CPI table 2, September 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Motor vehicle insurance index, series CUUR0000SETE, Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Progressive Form 10-Q, second quarter 2026, SEC
- Progressive Form 10-Q, third quarter 2025, SEC
- Progressive September 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Progressive December 2024 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Progressive March 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Progressive June 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Progressive December 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Progressive March 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Progressive June 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99, SEC
- Allstate second quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, SEC
- Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q, second quarter 2026, SEC
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