ACI Worldwide Report: Global Refund Volumes Surge 18% as Retailers Tighten Returns

Key Terms

reverse logistics technical

Reverse logistics is the process of moving products from customers back to a company for returns, repairs, recycling, or disposal — like the reverse of a delivery route when a returned package comes back to the warehouse. It matters to investors because efficient reverse logistics can cut costs, recover value from returned goods, reduce waste and regulatory risk, and protect brand reputation, all of which affect profitability and long-term cash flow.

ai-driven identity verification technical

AI-driven identity verification uses machine learning and computer vision to confirm a person’s identity by checking documents, photos, biometrics (like a face or fingerprint), and behavioral signals automatically. For investors, it matters because this technology can cut fraud, speed customer onboarding, lower operating costs, and help firms meet legal identity checks — like replacing a manual ID desk with a fast, always-on digital gate — while introducing data-privacy and model-risk considerations.

real-time monitoring technical

Continuous tracking of data and events as they happen, using tools that collect and display updates instantly rather than later. For investors, real-time monitoring is like watching a live scoreboard: it lets you spot sudden changes, risks, or opportunities immediately so you can react faster, manage exposure, and verify that regulatory or clinical conditions are being met without waiting for delayed reports.

real-time analytics technical

Real-time analytics involves continuously examining data as it is generated, allowing for immediate insights and decision-making. For investors, it’s like having a live dashboard that shows the latest market movements, helping them respond quickly to changes and make more informed choices. This instant access to current information can be crucial for staying ahead in fast-moving financial environments.

fraud management technical

Systems, policies and actions a company uses to detect, prevent and respond to dishonest or illegal activity that could steal money, misstate results or damage customers — for example payment fraud, identity theft or falsified records. Fraud management matters to investors because it protects cash, preserves trust and reduces legal or regulatory fines; think of it as the company’s locks, alarms and response plan that keep value and future profits from being quietly wiped out.

omnichannel technical

A coordinated approach to selling and serving customers across all touchpoints—stores, websites, mobile apps, social media, and call centers—so the experience feels like one continuous conversation no matter where a customer interacts. For investors, omnichannel capability signals how well a company can attract and keep customers, turn interactions into sales, and use shared customer data to cut costs and boost revenue—making it a key driver of growth and competitive strength.

New analysis shows holiday-driven refund growth, rising fraud risk, and growing pressure on retail margins despite strong eCommerce growth

OMAHA, Neb. & LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Annual refund volumes in the global retail sector increased 18.1 % in 2025, while refund value rose 12.7% year-on-year, according to ACI’s annual Global Ecommerce Report. ACI Worldwide (NASDAQ: ACIW), an original innovator in global payments technology, analysed billions of retail transactions worldwide as part of the study.

Refund activity peaked sharply during the holiday season; November and December together accounted for approximately 20% of all refunds in 2025. December alone recorded a 2.89% refund rate, meaning nearly three out of every 100 purchases resulted in a return, compared with an average refund rate of 2.25% between January and October.

The findings come amid continued growth in global eCommerce. Across all retail sectors, eCommerce transaction volumes grew 28.3% in 2025, while total transaction value increased 34.3% year-on-year, driven by consumer demand for convenience, sustained innovation across the retail ecosystem, and rising levels of consumer trust.

While refund rates are rising more slowly than eCommerce transactions, their financial impact for retailers remains significant. Every $1 million in refunds typically translates into around $1.3 million in total costs once reverse logistics, inventory depreciation, payment processing fees, and fraud-related overheads are accounted for.

As refund volumes accelerate, retailers are rethinking their approach to returns and fraud management. This includes deploying AI-driven identity verification, real-time monitoring, and tighter, more adaptive return policies. Increasingly, merchants are applying real-time analytics traditionally reserved for fraud prevention to refund and return activity—seeking to reduce abuse while preserving a frictionless experience for legitimate customers.

“The sharp rise in refund volumes is exposing a growing pressure point for retailers—one that directly threatens margins, especially during peak periods and extended return windows,” said Adriana Iordan, head of merchant product management and payments intelligence at ACI Worldwide. “Retailers need smarter, AI‑driven controls that spot abuse in real time and adapt policies dynamically, without adding friction for genuine customers. By bringing fraud and refund management together, merchants can curb losses, protect profitability, and still deliver a customer seamless experience—even as refund volumes continue to climb.”

Key Highlights at a Glance (Year‑on‑Year, Retail)

• Refund Growth: Refund transactions increased 18.1%, while refund value rose 12.7%, indicating higher refund frequency but lower average refund values.
• Holiday Surge: November and December together accounted for ~20% of annual refunds, driven by extended return windows and elevated fraud risk.
• Refund‑to‑Payment Ratio: Averaged 2.5%–3% across the year, highlighting growing pressure within omnichannel retail environments.
  • January–October: 2.25%
  • November: 2.28%
  • December: 2.89%
• Payment Expansion: eCommerce payment volumes increased 28.3%, with transaction values up 34.3%, reflecting sustained consumer spending growth.
• Strategic Implications: The widening gap between payment growth and refund growth underscores the opportunity for retailers to tighten refund controls without eroding customer experience—particularly during peak periods.

About the Report:
ACI’s Global Annual Ecommerce Report provides insight on the latest eCommerce trends based on an analysis of billions of global retail transactions processed in 2024 and 2025.

About ACI Worldwide

ACI Worldwide, an original innovator in global payments technology, delivers transformative software solutions that power intelligent payments orchestration in real time so banks, billers and merchants can drive growth, while continuously modernizing their payment infrastructures, simply and securely. With nearly 50 years of trusted payments expertise, we combine our global footprint with a local presence to offer enhanced payment experiences to stay ahead of constantly changing payment challenges and opportunities.

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Katrin Boettger | Communications and Corporate Affairs Director | katrin.boettger@aciworldwide.com



Pierce Rohrmann I Head of Communications and Corporate Affairs I pierce.rohrmann@aciworldwide.com

Source: ACI Worldwide