Treasury's Refunding Details Are Up Next as Five Large Companies Report Higher Revenue

Mastercard repurchased $3.0 billion of shares during the quarter, while Lilly and ADM raised their full-year outlooks.

Rhea-AI Summary

Mastercard (MA) reported third-quarter net revenue growth of 14% to $9.8 billion, alongside higher earnings across several other large companies.

Mastercard diluted EPS rose to $5.28 from $4.34 a year earlier. Lilly (LLY) revenue increased 39% to $24.4 billion, and its 2026 revenue outlook rose to $91.0 billion–$92.0 billion. Caterpillar (CAT) sales and revenues increased 17% to $20.7 billion, with operating margin reaching 20.4%. Arista Networks (ANET) revenue rose 58.5% to approximately $3.66 billion; it expects fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9 billion–$4.0 billion. ADM (ADM) raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $5.50–$5.80.

Treasury's quarterly refunding details and September trade data are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury expects October–December borrowing of $618 billion, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion.

23 points · 2 major

PositiveiHow this balance works

How this balance works

Rhea-AI gives every point it takes from this document a weight. Minor counts 1, Moderate 3 and Major 9, so one Major point outweighs several Minor ones. The bar adds up the weights on each side, and when neither side holds more than 65% of the total the balance reads Mixed.

It reads the document as published, with the same rules for every company, and it does not look at what the market expected or at how the stock traded, so a point can be objectively good on a day the stock falls.

Rhea-AI Sentiment measures something else, the tone of the wording.

How the balance worksHow Sentiment works

0 major · 3 points

Hollow bars mark forward-looking points. How the balance works

Positive

• Major point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Lilly raised its 2026 revenue guidance midpoint by $5.5 billion, to a $91.0 billion–$92.0 billion range.
• Major point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.ADM raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $5.50–$5.80, from $5.15–$5.60.
• Moderate pointMastercard net revenue increased 14% to $9.8 billion, as reported and currency-neutral, in the third quarter.
• Moderate pointMastercard diluted EPS rose to $5.28 from $4.34 a year earlier.
• Moderate pointMastercard gross dollar volume grew 7% on a local currency basis.
• Moderate pointMastercard cross-border volume grew 11% on a local currency basis.
• Moderate pointMastercard value-added services and solutions net revenue increased 19%.
• Moderate pointMastercard repurchased 5.3 million shares for $3.0 billion during the quarter.
• Moderate pointLilly third-quarter revenue increased 39% to $24.4 billion, driven primarily by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
• Moderate pointLilly worldwide Mounjaro revenue rose 65% to $10.7 billion.
• Moderate pointLilly U.S. Zepbound revenue rose 48% to $5.3 billion.
• Moderate pointLilly worldwide volume rose 53%; U.S. volume increased 41%.
• Moderate pointCaterpillar third-quarter sales and revenues increased 17% to $20.7 billion.
• Moderate pointCaterpillar profit per share rose to $7.13 from $4.88 a year earlier.
• Moderate pointCaterpillar operating profit margin increased to 20.4% from 17.3% in the third quarter of 2025.
• Moderate pointArista third-quarter revenue increased 58.5% to approximately $3.66 billion, exceeding its $3.3 billion guidance.
• Moderate pointArista GAAP diluted EPS rose to $1.22 from $0.67 a year earlier.
• Moderate point. Forward-looking: it has not happened yet and may not happen.Arista expects fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion.
• Moderate pointADM third-quarter EPS increased to $1.70 from $0.22 in the prior-year quarter.
• Moderate pointADM total segment operating profit rose 64% to $1.4 billion.

3 minor points

• Minor pointCaterpillar Power Generation sales rose 30% to $3.42 billion, mainly in turbines, related services and large reciprocating engines.
• Minor pointCaterpillar third-quarter operating profit included $128 million of IEEPA tariff recoveries.
• Minor pointADM said North American crushing results benefited from biofuel demand driven by finalized policy and higher energy prices.

Negative

• Moderate pointLilly realized prices fell 15% worldwide and 7% in the U.S., partially offsetting volume growth.
• Minor pointMastercard third-quarter special items included $74 million of pre-tax charges, primarily for merchant settlements.
• Minor pointCaterpillar Resource Industries faced higher material costs, including tariffs, within unfavorable manufacturing costs.

News Explained

In the third quarter, Mastercard repurchased 5.3 million shares for $3.0 billion and paid $763 million in dividends, completing share buybacks and cash distributions to shareholders.

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NEW YORK, Nov. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Market Updates News Commentary - U.S. stock index futures were mixed early Wednesday after a split session on Tuesday. As of 2:22 a.m. ET, December E-mini S&P 500 futures were down 0.22% at 7,579.75 and E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.35% at 28,206.00, while E-mini Dow futures were up 0.10% at 51,947 and E-mini Russell 2000 futures were up 0.28% at 2,832.90. Two government releases are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, Treasury's quarterly refunding details and the September trade report, and large companies in pharmaceuticals, heavy equipment, payments, networking and agriculture have reported higher third-quarter revenue over the past week. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA), Arista Networks, Inc. (NYSE: ANET), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM).

On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.65 points, or 0.83%, to close at 25,372.01, and the S&P 500 rose 27.52 points, or 0.36%, to 7,568.92. The Russell 2000 added 6.57 points, or 0.23%, to 2,812.45, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 197.26 points, or 0.38%, to 51,786.72. The 10-year Treasury par yield was 4.95% on Tuesday, up from 4.91% on Monday, according to Treasury data. As of 2:22 a.m. ET, December West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.43% at $96.50 a barrel and the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was at 101.49, down 0.37%.

Treasury set the stage for this morning's refunding update on Monday, when it said it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt in the October through December quarter, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion, and $800 billion in the January through March quarter. Additional financing details for the Quarterly Refunding are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, the same time the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish U.S. international trade in goods and services for September.

Race calls by The Associated Press as of 2:30 a.m. ET showed Democrats winning control of both the House and the Senate, with some races, including the Senate contest in Alaska, still outstanding at that time. The terms of the next Congress begin at noon on Jan. 3, 2027. Several large companies that reported in the past week list policy matters, including drug pricing, tariffs, payments industry regulation and biofuels, among the factors that could affect their results.

For readers who want to track how earnings and policy headlines play out on individual charts, the free Knowledge is Power guide from Stock Preachers is available at market-updates.com/.

In other industry developments and happenings in the market this week include:

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY)

Eli Lilly reported on Oct. 29 that third-quarter revenue increased 39% to $24.4 billion, driven primarily by Mounjaro and Zepbound, and the total included approximately $900 million of benefits, primarily from Jardiance milestones and favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. The company increased the midpoint of its 2026 revenue guidance by $5.5 billion, to a range of $91.0 billion to $92.0 billion. Worldwide Mounjaro revenue rose 65% to $10.7 billion, and U.S. Zepbound revenue rose 48% to $5.3 billion.

Pricing runs through the report. Worldwide volume rose 53% while realized prices fell 15%, and in the U.S. a 41% volume increase was partially offset by a 7% decrease in realized prices. Lilly lists the implementation of its voluntary agreement with the U.S. government related to drug pricing and access, along with actions of governmental and private actors affecting pricing of, reimbursement for, and patient access to pharmaceuticals, among the factors that could cause actual results to differ from those anticipated.

"Lilly had another strong quarter, exceeding our prior expectations and allowing us to raise our full-year outlook," said David A. Ricks, Lilly chair and CEO.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT)

Caterpillar said on Oct. 29 that third-quarter sales and revenues increased 17% to $20.7 billion, with profit per share of $7.13 and adjusted profit per share of $7.20, compared with $4.88 and $4.95 a year earlier. Operating profit margin was 20.4%, compared with 17.3% in the third quarter of 2025. Power Generation sales rose 30% to $3.42 billion, mainly in turbines and turbine-related services and in large reciprocating engines, primarily in data center applications.

Trade policy appears directly in the results. Third-quarter operating profit included $128 million of tariff recoveries tied to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), and the company said unfavorable manufacturing costs in its Resource Industries segment primarily reflected higher material costs, including tariffs. Caterpillar lists the imposition of new tariffs or changes in existing tariff rates among the factors that could affect its results.

"Our third-quarter results reflect the durability of our end markets, with strong order rates and a record backlog," said Caterpillar Chairman and CEO Joe Creed.

Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA)

Mastercard reported on Oct. 29 that third-quarter net revenue increased 14% to $9.8 billion, as reported and on a currency-neutral basis, and diluted EPS rose to $5.28 from $4.34 a year earlier. Gross dollar volume grew 7% and cross-border volume grew 11% on a local currency basis, while value-added services and solutions net revenue increased 19%. During the quarter, the company repurchased 5.3 million shares at a cost of $3.0 billion and paid $763 million in dividends.

Card economics remain a policy matter. Mastercard lists regulation related to the payments industry, including regulatory, legislative and litigation activity with respect to interchange rates and surcharging, among the factors that could affect its results. Its third-quarter special items included $74 million of pre-tax charges, primarily due to settlements with merchants who opted out of the U.S. merchant class litigation.

"More Mastercard credentials in more hands give us a powerful foundation, backed by our global reach and innovation," said Michael Miebach, Mastercard CEO.

Arista Networks, Inc. (NYSE: ANET)

Arista Networks reported on Tuesday that third-quarter revenue was approximately $3.66 billion, an increase of 58.5% from the third quarter of 2025 and above its guidance of $3.3 billion. The company said that was its highest year-over-year revenue growth since its IPO. GAAP diluted earnings per share were $1.22, compared with $0.67 a year earlier, and Arista expects fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion.

Arista also said it launched open standards-based rack-scale architectures for scale-up and scale-out AI networks in partnership with companies including AMD, Broadcom, Meta and Microsoft. Its list of risk factors includes escalated or escalating U.S. tariffs and countermeasures and retaliatory actions taken by other countries, enhanced import/export restrictions, and issues in the development and use of artificial intelligence, combined with an uncertain regulatory environment.

"Arista registered another momentous quarter with the highest year-over-year revenue growth since our IPO and record profitability, surpassing even my high expectations," stated Jayshree Ullal, Chairperson and CEO of Arista Networks.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM)

ADM on Tuesday raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $5.50 to $5.80, up from a prior range of $5.15 to $5.60. Third-quarter EPS was $1.70 and adjusted EPS was $1.77, compared with $0.22 and $0.92 in the prior-year quarter, and total segment operating profit rose 64% to $1.4 billion.

Biofuel policy features prominently in the report. ADM said the constructive North American biofuels margin environment behind its crushing results continued to be driven by higher domestic demand resulting from the Renewable Volume Obligation policy finalized in March, combined with higher global energy prices, and that North American ethanol margins included policy incentives. Its outlook states that external factors across the macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy and trade environments continue to be monitored.

"ADM delivered strong third quarter results, with earnings up significantly from the prior year quarter and operating profit growth across all segments," said Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer.

Drug pricing, tariffs, interchange rates and biofuel rules all appear in the latest earnings reports from these five companies, alongside the revenue and profit figures. To follow how the market reacts on the charts, get the free Knowledge is Power guide from Stock Preachers at market-updates.com/.

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FAQ

AI-generated questions and answers. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

How much did Mastercard return to shareholders in the third quarter?

Mastercard repurchased 5.3 million shares for $3.0 billion and paid $763 million in dividends during the quarter.

What contributed to Lilly's third-quarter revenue growth?

Lilly's 39% revenue increase to $24.4 billion was driven primarily by Mounjaro and Zepbound. Revenue also included approximately $900 million of benefits, primarily from Jardiance milestones and favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates.

How much does Treasury expect to borrow in the January through March quarter?

Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion in privately-held net marketable debt in the January through March quarter.