Algoma Steel Provides Guidance for the Third Quarter 2025 and Announces Board Update

Rhea-AI Summary

Algoma Steel (NASDAQ: ASTL) has provided guidance for Q3 2025, projecting total steel shipments of 415,000 - 420,000 net tons with an expected Adjusted EBITDA of negative $80-90 million. The company achieved a significant milestone with the first arc and steel production from its new electric arc furnace (EAF) in July, marking progress in its transition to low-carbon steelmaking.

The company also announced that David Sgro has resigned from the board of directors. Sgro served as Chair of the Human Resources and Compensation Committee and was a member of the Operations and Capital Projects Committee during the company's transformation period.

Positive

• Successfully launched electric arc furnace (EAF) operations in July 2025
• Secured federal and provincial financial support enhancing flexibility
• Making progress in transformation to low-carbon steelmaking

Negative

• Projected negative Adjusted EBITDA of $80-90 million for Q3 2025
• Facing ongoing trade headwinds affecting operations
• Board member resignation could impact corporate governance continuity

Insights

Financial Analyst specializing in Steel Industry

Algoma Steel forecasts negative Q3 EBITDA of $80-90M despite EAF milestone, signaling significant near-term operational challenges amid trade headwinds.

Algoma's Q3 2025 guidance reveals concerning financial performance with projected $80-90 million negative Adjusted EBITDA despite shipments of 415,000-420,000 net tons. This substantial operating loss indicates severe margin compression in their core steel business, likely driven by the "trade headwinds" referenced in their statement.

The negative EBITDA forecast comes at a pivotal moment for Algoma, as they've just reached the critical milestone of first arc and first steel from their new electric arc furnace (EAF) in July. This transformation represents their shift from traditional blast furnace operations to more environmentally sustainable EAF steelmaking, which typically offers lower fixed costs and improved production flexibility.

Management's strategic adjustment to focus on Canadian market demand with a specialized plate and coil mix suggests they're attempting to target higher-margin domestic opportunities while navigating challenging international market conditions. The mention of "enhanced financial flexibility" through government support is particularly significant given the negative EBITDA projection, as it provides crucial liquidity during this transitional phase.

The board resignation, while positioned as routine, comes at a sensitive financial juncture. Ultimately, Algoma faces a critical balancing act – managing short-term financial pressures while executing their long-term decarbonization strategy. The success of their EAF implementation will be essential for achieving sustainable profitability, but investors should recognize the substantial near-term headwinds reflected in this guidance.

SAULT STE. MARIE, Ontario, Oct. 01, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL) (“Algoma” or the “Company”), a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, today provided guidance for its quarter ended September 30, 2025. Unless otherwise specified, all amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 415,000 – 420,000 net tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negative $80 million – negative $90 million.

Michael Garcia, Chief Executive Officer of Algoma, commented: “Despite ongoing trade headwinds, we achieved first arc and first steel from our electric arc furnace (EAF) in July—marking a critical milestone in our transformation to low-carbon steelmaking. With enhanced financial flexibility from federal and provincial support, we are prioritizing Canadian market demand with a focused plate and coil product mix. We remain confident in our strategy and long-term value creation potential for shareholders."

Board of Directors Update

Separately, the Company is announcing that David Sgro has resigned from the board of directors for personal reasons.

Mr. Sgro commented: “It has been a privilege to serve on Algoma’s Board during such a transformative period in the Company’s history. I am proud to have played a role in supporting Algoma’s strategic vision and its journey to electric arc steelmaking. I want to thank my fellow directors, the executive leadership team, and all of Algoma’s employees for their dedication and partnership. I remain confident in Algoma’s future and wish the Company continued success as it advances its growth and decarbonization initiatives.”

Andy Harshaw, Chair of the Board, added: “We thank David for his lasting impact and valuable contributions during his tenure. His leadership as Chair of the Human Resources and Compensation Committee and a member of the Operations and Capital Projects Committee was instrumental to Algoma’s transformation. We wish him all the best in his future endeavors.”

About Algoma Steel

Based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada, Algoma is a fully integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products, including sheet and plate. Driven by a purpose to build better lives and a greener future, Algoma is positioned to deliver responsive, customer-driven product solutions to applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. Algoma is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada. Its state-of-the-art Direct Strip Production Complex (“DSPC”) is one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel (HRC) in North America.

Algoma is on a transformation journey, modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology that builds on the strong principles of recycling and environmental stewardship to significantly lower carbon emissions. Today, Algoma is investing in its people and processes, working safely, as a team to become one of North America’s leading producers of green steel.

As a founding industry in their community, Algoma is drawing on the best of its rich steelmaking tradition to deliver greater value, offering North America the comfort of a secure steel supply and a sustainable future.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains “forward-looking information” under applicable Canadian securities legislation and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including statements regarding Algoma’s guidance, strategic objectives, completion of Algoma’s EAF project, the anticipated impact of Algoma’s EAF project, financial flexibility from federal and provincial support and Algoma’s future financial performance. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “design,” “pipeline,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this document. Readers should consider the risks and uncertainties set forth in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information” in Algoma’s annual information form, filed by Algoma with the Ontario Securities Commission (the “OSC”) (available under the company’s SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com) and with the SEC (available at www.sec.gov) as part of its annual report on Form 40-F, as well as in Algoma’s quarterly and current reports filed with the OSC and SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and Algoma assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

For more information, please contact:

Michael Moraca 
Vice President - Corporate Development and Treasurer
Phone: 705.945.3300 
E-mail: IR@algoma.com 

FAQ

What is Algoma Steel's (ASTL) projected steel shipment volume for Q3 2025?

Algoma Steel expects total steel shipments of 415,000 - 420,000 net tons for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.

What is ASTL's expected Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025?

The company projects an Adjusted EBITDA of negative $80-90 million for the third quarter of 2025.

When did Algoma Steel start operating its new electric arc furnace?

Algoma Steel achieved first arc and first steel from its electric arc furnace (EAF) in July 2025, marking a key milestone in its transition to low-carbon steelmaking.

Who resigned from Algoma Steel's board of directors?

David Sgro resigned from the board of directors for personal reasons. He served as Chair of the Human Resources and Compensation Committee and was a member of the Operations and Capital Projects Committee.

What is Algoma Steel's current business strategy?

Algoma Steel is prioritizing Canadian market demand with a focused plate and coil product mix, while advancing its transformation to low-carbon steelmaking through EAF technology, supported by federal and provincial funding.