Algoma Steel Group Inc. Provides Guidance for the First Quarter 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

Algoma Steel Group (NASDAQ: ASTL) provided Q1 2026 guidance for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Total steel shipments are expected at approximately 220,000 tons. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negative $25 million to negative $35 million, which includes a $90–$95 million capacity utilization adjustment tied to EAF ramp-up. The company completed the wind-down of blast furnace and coke oven operations and has fully transitioned to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking after close to $1 billion of investment, producing its low‑carbon Volta brand. Management expects EAF-driven structural cost improvements to deliver sequential Adjusted EBITDA improvement despite near-term demand softness.

Positive

• Total shipments ~220,000 tons in Q1 2026
• Completed transition to EAF steelmaking after ~$1 billion investment
• Volta low‑carbon steel now produced at scale for Canadian market

Negative

• Expected Adjusted EBITDA negative $25M–$35M for Q1 2026
• $90M–$95M capacity utilization adjustment due to lower production volumes

Market Reaction – ASTL

+5.60% $4.34

15m delay 2 alerts

+5.60% Since News

$4.34 Last Price

$4.10 $4.34 Day Range

+$23M Valuation Impact

$431.28M Market Cap

0.0x Rel. Volume

Following this news, ASTL has gained 5.60%, reflecting a notable positive market reaction. Our momentum scanner has triggered 2 alerts so far, indicating moderate trading interest and price volatility. The stock is currently trading at $4.34. This price movement has added approximately $23M to the company's valuation.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus (15 min delayed). Upgrade to Silver for real-time data.

Key Figures

Total steel shipments: 220,000 tons Adjusted EBITDA (low end): negative $25 million Adjusted EBITDA (high end): negative $35 million +3 more

6 metrics

Total steel shipments 220,000 tons Expected for quarter ended March 31, 2026

Adjusted EBITDA (low end) negative $25 million Guidance for quarter ended March 31, 2026

Adjusted EBITDA (high end) negative $35 million Guidance for quarter ended March 31, 2026

Capacity utilization adjustment (low end) $90 million Expected benefit included in Adjusted EBITDA guidance

Capacity utilization adjustment (high end) $95 million Expected benefit included in Adjusted EBITDA guidance

EAF investment close to $1 billion Cumulative investment in EAF transformation

Market Reality Check

Price: $4.13 Vol: Volume 761,858 is well be...

low vol

$4.13 Last Close

Volume Volume 761,858 is well below the 20-day average of 1,863,659 (relative volume 0.41). low

Technical Shares at $4.125 are trading below the 200-day MA of $4.67, and about 43% under the 52-week high of $7.245.

Peers on Argus

ASTL gained 4.29% while only one tracked peer (NWPX) appeared in momentum scanne...

1 Up

ASTL gained 4.29% while only one tracked peer (NWPX) appeared in momentum scanners, up about 2% with no news. Other steel-related peers show mixed moves, including ZEUS down 6.16%, suggesting a largely stock-specific reaction.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Mar 11 (Negative)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Mar 11	Q4/FY 2025 results	Negative	-14.8%	Reported large Q4 and full-year net losses during EAF transition.
Feb 26	Earnings date notice	Neutral	-3.4%	Announced timing and access details for Q4 and full-year results.
Jan 26	Strategic MOU	Positive	-5.5%	Signed binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean for CPSP-related steel supply and investment.
Jan 08	Q4 2025 guidance	Negative	+0.2%	Guided to shipment softness and substantially negative Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025.
Nov 17	Gov’t financing	Positive	-2.5%	Closed $500M government financing package including long-term facilities and warrants.

Pattern Detected

Recent history shows frequent negative or muted price reactions on earnings, financing and strategic news, with multiple divergences where positive developments were met by share price declines.

Recent Company History

Over the last six months, Algoma has focused on its transition to electric arc furnace steelmaking and shoring up liquidity. In November 2025 it completed a $500 million government financing package. In January 2026 it issued Q4 2025 guidance calling for negative $95–$105 million Adjusted EBITDA, and later signed a binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean valued up to USD $250 million. March 2026 results showed a $364.7 million quarterly net loss. Today’s Q1 2026 guidance continues that transition narrative with ongoing near-term losses.

Market Pulse Summary

The stock is up +5.6% following this news. A strong positive reaction aligns with the market focusin...

Analysis

The stock is up +5.6% following this news. A strong positive reaction aligns with the market focusing on Algoma’s EAF transition rather than near-term losses. Guidance still calls for Adjusted EBITDA between negative $25 million and negative $35 million, but this is an improvement from prior guidance and comes with full EAF ramp-up and branded low‑carbon Volta steel at scale. Investors may also weigh prior financing and strategic MOUs as supporting the long-term transition story.

Key Terms

adjusted ebitda, capacity utilization adjustment, electric arc furnace (eaf), blast furnace, +1 more

5 terms

adjusted ebitda financial

"Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of negative $25 million..."

Adjusted EBITDA is a way companies measure how much money they make from their core operations, like running a business, by removing certain costs or income that aren’t part of regular business activities. It helps investors see how well a company is doing without distractions from unusual expenses or gains, making it easier to compare companies or track performance over time.

capacity utilization adjustment financial

"includes the benefit of a capacity utilization adjustment that is expected..."

A capacity utilization adjustment is a change made to forecasts or reported results to account for how fully a company’s production or service capacity is being used. It matters to investors because higher or lower use of factories, servers, or staff shifts costs per unit and profitability much like baking more loaves in the same oven spreads the oven’s cost across more bread; failing to adjust can make profits look better or worse than the ongoing business actually is.

electric arc furnace (eaf) technical

"as the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) ramps up."

An electric arc furnace (EAF) is a type of industrial furnace that melts steel scrap or direct-reduced iron using powerful electric arcs, like using a giant electric blowtorch to liquefy metal. Investors watch EAFs because they determine a steelmaker’s costs, energy use, and emissions profile: EAF-based plants can be quicker to build and cleaner than traditional blast furnaces but are sensitive to electricity prices and scrap availability, which affect profit margins.

blast furnace technical

"With the wind-down of our blast furnace and coke oven operations now complete..."

A blast furnace is a tall, industrial furnace that smelts iron ore into molten iron by layering ore, coke (a fuel), and limestone and blowing hot air through the stack, functioning like a giant cooking pot that separates metal from rock. For investors, it matters because blast furnaces are central to producing steel, so their capacity, operating costs, and emissions profile directly affect a producer’s output, margins, and regulatory risks.

coke oven technical

"With the wind-down of our blast furnace and coke oven operations now complete..."

A coke oven is an industrial furnace that heats coal without oxygen to remove volatile parts and produce coke, a hard, carbon-rich fuel and metallurgical agent used mainly in steelmaking. Think of it like a specialized kiln that turns raw coal into the concentrated ingredient steelmakers need; for investors, coke ovens matter because they represent capital-intensive assets, influence a producer’s cost structure and output capacity, and carry environmental and regulatory risks that can affect profitability.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

SAULT STE. MARIE, Ontario, March 31, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL) (“Algoma” or “the Company”), a leading Canadian producer of steel plate and hot rolled sheet products, today provided guidance for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. Unless otherwise specified, all amounts are in Canadian dollars.

Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 220,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of negative $25 million to negative $35 million. The guidance for expected Adjusted EBITDA includes the benefit of a capacity utilization adjustment that is expected to be in the range of $90 million to $95 million. This represents the excess fixed costs incurred in the quarter despite lower production volumes as the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) ramps up.

Rajat Marwah, Chief Executive Officer of Algoma, commented, "The first quarter of 2026 marked a defining moment in Algoma's transformation. With the wind-down of our blast furnace and coke oven operations now complete, we have fully transitioned to EAF steelmaking, the culmination of years of planning and close to $1 billion of investment. Our EAF is running around the clock, producing Volta™, our sustainable low-carbon steel brand, at scale for the Canadian market. While near-term demand softness continues to weigh on shipment volumes, the structural cost improvements inherent to EAF steelmaking are expected to drive meaningful sequential improvement in Adjusted EBITDA. As Canada's only producer of discrete plate, we are well-positioned to serve growing demand across infrastructure, construction, and defense, and to build on the foundation we have put in place."

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains “forward-looking information” under applicable Canadian securities legislation and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including statements regarding anticipated improvements in Adjusted EBITDA, ability to serve growing demand across infrastructure, construction, and defense, expected future demand for steel, Algoma’s transition to EAF steelmaking, the Company’s expected reduction in carbon emissions following completion of the EAF project, Algoma’s future as a leading producer of green steel, t Algoma’s modernization of its plate mill facilities, transformation journey, ability to deliver greater and long-term value, ability to offer North America a secure steel supply and a sustainable future, and investment in its people, and processes, and statements regarding the Company’s strategy, plans or future financial or operating performance. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “hope,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “design,” “pipeline,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this document. Readers should also consider the other risks and uncertainties set forth in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information” in Algoma’s Annual Information Form, filed by Algoma with applicable Canadian securities regulatory authorities (available under the Company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.com) and with the SEC, as part of Algoma’s Annual Report on Form 40-F (available at www.sec.gov), as well as in Algoma’s current reports with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and Algoma assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

About Algoma Steel Group Inc.

Based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Algoma is a leading Canadian producer of high-quality plate and sheet steel products, proudly supporting critical sectors including energy, defense, automotive, shipbuilding, and infrastructure. Guided by a purpose to build better lives and a greener future, Algoma is shaping the next generation of sustainable steelmaking in Canada.

With the transition to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking and a modernized plate mill, Algoma is redefining how steel is made in Canada. Powered by Ontario’s clean electricity grid, this transformation represents one of the largest industrial decarbonization initiatives in North America and is expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 70%. These advancements provide stability for continued investment in diversification projects aligned with Canada’s evolving needs.

This new chapter also introduces Volta™, the brand for all steel produced through Algoma’s EAF technology. Volta delivers the same trusted performance customers rely on, with significantly lower emissions—produced safely, sustainably, and proudly in Canada.

Building on more than a century of steelmaking expertise, Algoma continues to invest in its people, processes, and technologies to strengthen domestic supply chains and deliver responsible, Canadian-made steel that helps build a better tomorrow.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To supplement our financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with IFRS® Accounting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IASB”) (“IFRS Accounting Standards”), we use certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of Algoma. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed within IFRS Accounting Standards and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided as additional information to complement those IFRS Accounting Standards measures by providing a further understanding of our financial performance from management’s perspective. Accordingly, they should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS Accounting Standards.

Adjusted EBITDA, as we define it, refers to net income (loss) before amortization of property, plant, equipment and amortization of intangible assets, finance costs, interest on pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, income taxes, foreign exchange loss (gain), finance income, carbon tax, changes in fair value of IPO and LETL Warrants, earnout and share-based compensation liabilities and derivative, share-based compensation related to the Company’s Omnibus Long Term Incentive Plan, certain inventory adjustments, impairment loss, legal settlement, severance costs and stranded inventory. Adjusted EBITDA margin is calculated by dividing Adjusted EBITDA by revenue for the corresponding period. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to represent cash flow from operations, as defined by IFRS Accounting Standards, and should not be considered as alternatives to net profit (loss) from operations, or any other measure of performance prescribed by IFRS Accounting Standards. Adjusted EBITDA, as we define and use it, may not be comparable to Adjusted EBITDA as defined and used by other companies. We consider Adjusted EBITDA to be a meaningful measure to assess our operating performance in addition to IFRS Accounting Standards. It is included because we believe it can be useful in measuring our operating performance and our ability to expand our business and provide management and investors with additional information for comparison of our operating results across different time periods and to the operating results of other companies. Adjusted EBITDA is also used by analysts and our lenders as a measure of our financial performance. In addition, we consider Adjusted EBITDA margin to be a useful measure of our operating performance and profitability across different time periods that enhance the comparability of our results. However, these measures have limitations as analytical tools and should not be considered in isolation from, or as alternatives to, net income, cash flow from operations or other data prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. Because of these limitations, such measures should not be considered as measures of discretionary cash available to invest in business growth or to reduce indebtedness. We compensate for these limitations by relying primarily on our IFRS Accounting Standards results using such measures only as supplements to such results. See the financial tables below for a reconciliation of net loss to Adjusted EBITDA.

For more information, please contact:

Michael Moraca
Chief Financial Officer
Algoma Steel Group Inc.
Phone: 705.945.3300
E-mail: IR@algoma.com

FAQ

What guidance did Algoma Steel (ASTL) give for Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026?

Algoma expects Adjusted EBITDA of negative $25M to negative $35M for Q1 2026. According to the company, this range includes a $90M–$95M capacity utilization adjustment tied to EAF ramp-up and lower production volumes.

How many tons of steel did Algoma Steel (ASTL) expect to ship in Q1 2026?

Algoma expects total steel shipments of approximately 220,000 tons for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. According to the company, shipment softness reflects near-term demand weakness during the EAF transition period.

Has Algoma Steel (ASTL) completed its transition to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking?

Yes, Algoma has completed the wind-down of blast furnace and coke oven operations and fully transitioned to EAF steelmaking. According to the company, this followed close to $1 billion of investment and enables production of its Volta low‑carbon steel.

What is the $90M–$95M capacity utilization adjustment in Algoma's Q1 2026 guidance?

The $90M–$95M capacity utilization adjustment represents excess fixed costs incurred despite lower volumes. According to the company, it reflects fixed costs while the EAF ramps up and production remains below full utilization.

What near-term outlook did Algoma Steel (ASTL) give after the EAF transition?

Algoma expects sequential improvement in Adjusted EBITDA as EAF cost advantages materialize, despite continued near-term demand softness. According to the company, structural cost improvements from EAF steelmaking should drive meaningful sequential gains.