Algoma Steel Group Inc. Provides Guidance for the First Quarter 2026
Rhea-AI Summary
Algoma Steel Group (NASDAQ: ASTL) provided Q1 2026 guidance for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Total steel shipments are expected at approximately 220,000 tons. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negative $25 million to negative $35 million, which includes a $90–$95 million capacity utilization adjustment tied to EAF ramp-up. The company completed the wind-down of blast furnace and coke oven operations and has fully transitioned to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking after close to $1 billion of investment, producing its low‑carbon Volta brand. Management expects EAF-driven structural cost improvements to deliver sequential Adjusted EBITDA improvement despite near-term demand softness.
Positive
- Total shipments ~220,000 tons in Q1 2026
- Completed transition to EAF steelmaking after ~$1 billion investment
- Volta low‑carbon steel now produced at scale for Canadian market
Negative
- Expected Adjusted EBITDA negative $25M–$35M for Q1 2026
- $90M–$95M capacity utilization adjustment due to lower production volumes
News Market Reaction – ASTL
In the Apr 1 session, ASTL declined 0.48%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction. Our momentum scanner triggered 2 alerts that day, indicating moderate trading interest and price volatility.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Key Figures
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | 24h Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Q4/FY 2025 results | Negative | -14.8% | Reported large Q4 and full-year net losses during EAF transition. |
| Feb 26 | Earnings date notice | Neutral | -3.4% | Announced timing and access details for Q4 and full-year results. |
| Jan 26 | Strategic MOU | Positive | -5.5% | Signed binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean for CPSP-related steel supply and investment. |
| Jan 08 | Q4 2025 guidance | Negative | +0.2% | Guided to shipment softness and substantially negative Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025. |
| Nov 17 | Gov’t financing | Positive | -2.5% | Closed $500M government financing package including long-term facilities and warrants. |
24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.
Recent history shows frequent negative or muted price reactions on earnings, financing and strategic news, with multiple divergences where positive developments were met by share price declines.
Over the last six months, Algoma has focused on its transition to electric arc furnace steelmaking and shoring up liquidity. In November 2025 it completed a $500 million government financing package. In January 2026 it issued Q4 2025 guidance calling for negative $95–$105 million Adjusted EBITDA, and later signed a binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean valued up to USD $250 million. March 2026 results showed a $364.7 million quarterly net loss. Today’s Q1 2026 guidance continues that transition narrative with ongoing near-term losses.
Key Terms
adjusted ebitda financial
capacity utilization adjustment financial
electric arc furnace (eaf) technical
blast furnace technical
coke oven technical
AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.
SAULT STE. MARIE, Ontario, March 31, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL) (“Algoma” or “the Company”), a leading Canadian producer of steel plate and hot rolled sheet products, today provided guidance for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. Unless otherwise specified, all amounts are in Canadian dollars.
Total steel shipments for the quarter are expected to be approximately 220,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of negative
Rajat Marwah, Chief Executive Officer of Algoma, commented, "The first quarter of 2026 marked a defining moment in Algoma's transformation. With the wind-down of our blast furnace and coke oven operations now complete, we have fully transitioned to EAF steelmaking, the culmination of years of planning and close to
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains “forward-looking information” under applicable Canadian securities legislation and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including statements regarding anticipated improvements in Adjusted EBITDA, ability to serve growing demand across infrastructure, construction, and defense, expected future demand for steel, Algoma’s transition to EAF steelmaking, the Company’s expected reduction in carbon emissions following completion of the EAF project, Algoma’s future as a leading producer of green steel, t Algoma’s modernization of its plate mill facilities, transformation journey, ability to deliver greater and long-term value, ability to offer North America a secure steel supply and a sustainable future, and investment in its people, and processes, and statements regarding the Company’s strategy, plans or future financial or operating performance. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “hope,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “design,” “pipeline,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this document. Readers should also consider the other risks and uncertainties set forth in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information” in Algoma’s Annual Information Form, filed by Algoma with applicable Canadian securities regulatory authorities (available under the Company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.com) and with the SEC, as part of Algoma’s Annual Report on Form 40-F (available at www.sec.gov), as well as in Algoma’s current reports with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and Algoma assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
About Algoma Steel Group Inc.
Based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Algoma is a leading Canadian producer of high-quality plate and sheet steel products, proudly supporting critical sectors including energy, defense, automotive, shipbuilding, and infrastructure. Guided by a purpose to build better lives and a greener future, Algoma is shaping the next generation of sustainable steelmaking in Canada.
With the transition to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking and a modernized plate mill, Algoma is redefining how steel is made in Canada. Powered by Ontario’s clean electricity grid, this transformation represents one of the largest industrial decarbonization initiatives in North America and is expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately
This new chapter also introduces Volta™, the brand for all steel produced through Algoma’s EAF technology. Volta delivers the same trusted performance customers rely on, with significantly lower emissions—produced safely, sustainably, and proudly in Canada.
Building on more than a century of steelmaking expertise, Algoma continues to invest in its people, processes, and technologies to strengthen domestic supply chains and deliver responsible, Canadian-made steel that helps build a better tomorrow.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
To supplement our financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with IFRS® Accounting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IASB”) (“IFRS Accounting Standards”), we use certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of Algoma. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed within IFRS Accounting Standards and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided as additional information to complement those IFRS Accounting Standards measures by providing a further understanding of our financial performance from management’s perspective. Accordingly, they should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS Accounting Standards.
Adjusted EBITDA, as we define it, refers to net income (loss) before amortization of property, plant, equipment and amortization of intangible assets, finance costs, interest on pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, income taxes, foreign exchange loss (gain), finance income, carbon tax, changes in fair value of IPO and LETL Warrants, earnout and share-based compensation liabilities and derivative, share-based compensation related to the Company’s Omnibus Long Term Incentive Plan, certain inventory adjustments, impairment loss, legal settlement, severance costs and stranded inventory. Adjusted EBITDA margin is calculated by dividing Adjusted EBITDA by revenue for the corresponding period. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to represent cash flow from operations, as defined by IFRS Accounting Standards, and should not be considered as alternatives to net profit (loss) from operations, or any other measure of performance prescribed by IFRS Accounting Standards. Adjusted EBITDA, as we define and use it, may not be comparable to Adjusted EBITDA as defined and used by other companies. We consider Adjusted EBITDA to be a meaningful measure to assess our operating performance in addition to IFRS Accounting Standards. It is included because we believe it can be useful in measuring our operating performance and our ability to expand our business and provide management and investors with additional information for comparison of our operating results across different time periods and to the operating results of other companies. Adjusted EBITDA is also used by analysts and our lenders as a measure of our financial performance. In addition, we consider Adjusted EBITDA margin to be a useful measure of our operating performance and profitability across different time periods that enhance the comparability of our results. However, these measures have limitations as analytical tools and should not be considered in isolation from, or as alternatives to, net income, cash flow from operations or other data prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. Because of these limitations, such measures should not be considered as measures of discretionary cash available to invest in business growth or to reduce indebtedness. We compensate for these limitations by relying primarily on our IFRS Accounting Standards results using such measures only as supplements to such results. See the financial tables below for a reconciliation of net loss to Adjusted EBITDA.
For more information, please contact: Michael Moraca Chief Financial Officer Algoma Steel Group Inc. Phone: 705.945.3300 E-mail: IR@algoma.com