Brenmiller Energy Highlights McKinsey Analysis Pointing to a Potential 16 Billion Euro European Market Opportunity for Thermal Energy Storage

Rhea-AI Summary

Brenmiller Energy (NASDAQ: BNRG) highlighted a McKinsey analysis projecting a large European market for thermal energy storage (TES). McKinsey estimates eight-hour TES projects could deliver >15% IRR by 2030 and Europe TES capacity may rise from <0.5 GWh to >200 GWh by 2035, implying ~€16 billion cumulative investment.

Brenmiller promotes its bGen TES using crushed rock to store electricity as heat and says it is advancing projects and manufacturing to pursue this opportunity.

Positive

• Projected IRR >15% for eight-hour TES by 2030
• Europe TES capacity growth to >200 GWh by 2035
• €16 billion estimated cumulative capital opportunity

Negative

• Economic outcomes depend on energy market conditions and policy through 2035

News Market Reaction – BNRG

-4.57%

11 alerts

-4.57% News Effect

+23.3% Peak Tracked

-6.7% Trough Tracked

-$45K Valuation Impact

$942,675 Market Cap

0.5x Rel. Volume

On the day this news was published, BNRG declined 4.57%, reflecting a moderate negative market reaction. Argus tracked a peak move of +23.3% during that session. Argus tracked a trough of -6.7% from its starting point during tracking. Our momentum scanner triggered 11 alerts that day, indicating notable trading interest and price volatility. This price movement removed approximately $45K from the company's valuation, bringing the market cap to $942,675 at that time.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

TES market opportunity: €16 billion TES IRR: more than 15% Industrial energy share: nearly two-thirds +2 more

5 metrics

TES market opportunity €16 billion Projected cumulative capital investment for TES in Europe by 2035

TES IRR more than 15% Internal rates of return for eight-hour TES systems by 2030

Industrial energy share nearly two-thirds Industrial heat share of total industrial energy use globally

Current TES capacity less than 0.5 GWh Estimated TES capacity in Europe today

Projected TES capacity more than 200 GWh Estimated TES capacity in Europe by 2035

Market Reality Check

Price: $0.6012 Vol: Volume 150,487 is at 0.12...

low vol

$0.6012 Last Close

Volume Volume 150,487 is at 0.12x the 20-day average of 1,303,377, indicating relatively light trading vs recent activity. low

Technical Price at 0.63 is trading well below the 200-day MA of 9.94, and remains 98.79% under the 52-week high while only 15.34% above the 52-week low.

Peers on Argus

BNRG is up 5.37% while key renewable utility peers like HTOO, SUUN, NXXT and VGA...

1 Down

BNRG is up 5.37% while key renewable utility peers like HTOO, SUUN, NXXT and VGAS show declines between about 3–4%, and scanner activity flags only one peer (NRGV) moving down. This divergence versus mostly weaker peers suggests a stock-specific reaction to the TES market commentary rather than a broad sector rotation.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Mar 12 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Mar 12	Shareholder letter	Positive	+18.7%	CEO letter on Tempo commissioning, BNRG360 strategy and financing access.
Mar 10	Strategy update	Positive	-5.5%	Acceleration of BNRG360 platform tied to higher European gas prices.
Mar 02	Project completion	Positive	-4.0%	Completion and commissioning start of 32 MWh bGen TES for Tempo.
Feb 18	Conference presentation	Positive	-8.4%	Presentation on integrating SMRs with TES at IDEA Campus 2026.
Feb 17	Project groundbreaking	Positive	-6.6%	Groundbreaking of Wolfson Medical Center TES decarbonization project.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has been operationally positive, but 4 of the last 5 announcements with constructive developments saw negative next-day price moves, indicating frequent divergence between fundamentals-focused news and short-term trading.

Recent Company History

Over the past month, Brenmiller reported several milestones. On Feb 17, it broke ground on a Wolfson Medical Center TES project (~$4 million, ~3,900 tons CO2 cuts, ~$1.5 million annual savings), followed by an IDEA Campus 2026 SMR-TES presentation on Feb 18. On Mar 2, it completed construction of a 32 MWh bGen system for Tempo Beverages, then on Mar 10 and Mar 12 advanced its BNRG360/Tempo strategy and disclosed up to $25 million in related financing access. Today’s focus on a large European TES opportunity fits this ongoing commercialization narrative.

Regulatory & Risk Context

Active S-3 Shelf

Shelf Active

Active S-3 Shelf Registration 2026-03-16

An effective Form F-3 shelf filed on March 16, 2026 registers up to 4,055,403 Ordinary Shares for resale by Alpha Capital Anstalt. The company reports it will not receive proceeds from these resales, other than cash from any March 2026 Ordinary Warrants exercised at their $2.912 strike. The filing highlights Nasdaq listing and dilution risks tied to outstanding warrants and full-ratchet anti-dilution terms, with 2,426,754 Ordinary Shares outstanding as of March 16, 2026.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement emphasizes a sizable European opportunity for thermal energy storage, with McKinse...

Analysis

This announcement emphasizes a sizable European opportunity for thermal energy storage, with McKinsey citing potential IRRs above 15% and an estimated €16 billion cumulative investment by 2035. It reinforces Brenmiller’s positioning around its bGen TES technology and ongoing European project activity. In context of recent project milestones and strategy updates, key elements to monitor include actual contract wins within this market, commercialization progress of existing deployments, and how any future financings or resales interact with the company’s growth plans.

Key Terms

thermal energy storage, internal rates of return, hurdle rates, gigawatt-hours

4 terms

thermal energy storage technical

"built around its proprietary thermal energy storage ("TES") technology"

Thermal energy storage is a technology that captures heat or cold so it can be used later, like a rechargeable battery that holds temperature instead of electricity. It matters to investors because it can lower energy costs, improve reliability for buildings and power plants, enable more use of renewable power, and create new revenue streams or cost savings for projects and companies involved in energy infrastructure.

internal rates of return financial

"According to McKinsey's analysis, internal rates of return for eight-hour TES"

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the annualized percentage that an investment or project is expected to earn, taking into account when money goes out and when returns come back. Think of it as the break‑even interest rate that makes the value of future receipts equal the initial cost—similar to the single interest rate that makes two different cash schedules comparable. Investors use IRR to rank opportunities: a higher IRR generally means faster or richer returns relative to other options or a required minimum, though it should be compared with risk and alternative rates.

hurdle rates financial

"placing these investments within or above typical industrial hurdle rates"

A hurdle rate is the minimum annual return a business or investor requires before committing capital to a project or investment, acting like the bar a proposal must jump over before approval. It matters to investors because it reflects the level of risk and expected reward—projects that beat the hurdle can add value and boost future profits or dividends, while those that don’t may be rejected or reworked.

gigawatt-hours technical

"could grow from less than 0.5 gigawatt-hours today to more than 200 gigawatt-hours"

Gigawatt-hours (GWh) measure a large amount of energy — one gigawatt-hour equals one billion watt-hours, which is the amount of power used continuously for one hour at a rate of one gigawatt. For investors, GWh shows the scale of electricity generation, storage or consumption for projects and companies, much like the number of gallons tells you the size of a fuel tank; it helps compare project capacity, potential revenue and the ability to meet demand.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

New Analysis Suggests Industrial Heat Electrification Economics May Improve Meaningfully, With Projected Returns Potentially Exceeding Typical Industrial Hurdle Rates Across Europe by 2030

Rosh Ha'Ayin, Israel--(Newsfile Corp. - March 20, 2026) - Brenmiller Energy Ltd. (NASDAQ: BNRG) ("Brenmiller", "Brenmiller Energy" or the "Company"), a provider of integrated power and heat solutions for industrial and utility customers built around its proprietary thermal energy storage ("TES") technology, today highlighted the rapidly expanding market opportunity for industrial heat electrification in Europe following the release of a March 13, 2026 McKinsey & Company blog of Industrial heat electrification in Europe: New business models emerge, that underscores the improving economics and strong growth potential of TES systems.

The report identifies industrial heat as one of the largest energy consumption segments globally, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total industrial energy use. While electrification of industrial heat has long been technically feasible, economic barriers such as high upfront capital costs and electricity pricing dynamics historically slowed adoption. Today, evolving energy market conditions across Europe, including recent spikes in natural gas prices, heightened price volatility and supply uncertainty driven in part by ongoing geopolitical instability, are improving the economics of electrified heat and creating a compelling opportunity for TES systems that store low-cost electricity and convert it into industrial heat when needed.

According to McKinsey's analysis, internal rates of return for eight-hour TES systems of more than 15% are achievable in most countries assessed by 2030, placing these investments within or above typical industrial hurdle rates. The report also estimates that TES capacity in Europe could grow from less than 0.5 gigawatt-hours today to more than 200 gigawatt-hours by 2035, representing an approximately €16 billion cumulative capital investment opportunity over time as industrial companies increasingly seek cost-effective solutions to decarbonize heat production while maintaining energy reliability.

Brenmiller's patented bGen TES technology converts electricity into stored thermal energy using crushed rock as a storage medium and delivers high-temperature steam or hot air on demand for industrial processes, enabling customers to store renewable and low-cost electricity and use it later for heat production. The Company's systems help industrial operators reduce both energy costs and emissions, and Brenmiller is actively advancing projects and collaborations across Europe as industries increasingly seek solutions to electrify heat and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

"The McKinsey report highlights what we believe is one of the most significant emerging opportunities in the global energy transition," said Avi Brenmiller, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Brenmiller Energy. "Industrial heat represents one of the largest remaining decarbonization challenges, and we believe that TES provides a scalable solution that allows industrial companies to replace fossil fuel-based heat with electricity."

"Based on McKinsey's analysis, Europe is rapidly becoming one of the most attractive markets in the world for TES," Mr. Brenmiller continued. "With our commercially proven bGen technology, expanding manufacturing capabilities and growing project pipeline of potential commercial opportunities, we believe Brenmiller is well positioned to capture a meaningful share of this multi-billion-euro market opportunity."

About Brenmiller Energy Ltd.

Brenmiller Energy (NASDAQ: BNRG) provides thermal energy storage solutions that enable industrial and utility customers to decarbonize heat, improve energy flexibility, and integrate renewable electricity. The Company's bGen systems convert electricity into dispatchable industrial heat, supporting electrification and emissions reduction across a range of applications.

Forward Looking Statements

This press release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other federal securities laws. Statements that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. For example, the Company is using forward-looking statements when discussing: the projected market opportunity for TES systems, expected returns and adoption trends for industrial heat electrification, the anticipated growth of the European TES market, the Company's ability to expand its manufacturing capabilities and pipeline of potential commercial opportunities, and the Company's ability to capture future commercial opportunities in Europe and other markets. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, words such as "plan," "project," "potential," "seek," "may," "will," "expect," "believe," "anticipate," "intend," "could," "estimate" or "continue" are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that certain important factors may affect the Company's actual results and could cause such results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements that may be made in this press release. Factors that may affect the Company's results include, but are not limited to: the Company's planned level of revenues and capital expenditures; risks associated with the adequacy of existing cash resources; the demand for and market acceptance of the Company's products; impact of competitive products and prices; product development, commercialization or technological difficulties; the success or failure of negotiations; trade, legal, social and economic risks; and political, economic and military instability in the Middle East, specifically in Israel. The forward-looking statements contained or implied in this press release are subject to other risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, including those set forth in the Risk Factors section of the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2024 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on March 4, 2025, which is available on the SEC's website, www.sec.gov. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release, except as required by law.

Investor Contacts:

Crescendo Communications, LLC
212-671-1020
bnrg@crescendo-ir.com

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/289285

FAQ

What did McKinsey say about TES returns by 2030 for companies like Brenmiller (BNRG)?

McKinsey projects eight-hour TES projects can achieve >15% IRR by 2030. According to Brenmiller, that level places TES within or above typical industrial hurdle rates, improving electrified heat economics across many European countries.

How large is the European TES market opportunity cited for Brenmiller (BNRG)?

The analysis estimates roughly €16 billion cumulative capital investment potential over time. According to Brenmiller, McKinsey links this with growth from under 0.5 GWh to over 200 GWh of TES capacity by 2035.

What technology does Brenmiller (BNRG) use to store thermal energy?

Brenmiller uses its patented bGen TES that stores heat in crushed rock and delivers steam or hot air on demand. According to Brenmiller, this enables storing low-cost electricity for later industrial heat production.

How could TES adoption affect industrial heat costs for Brenmiller (BNRG) customers?

TES can lower energy costs by storing low-price electricity and supplying heat when needed. According to Brenmiller, customers may reduce both energy expenses and emissions while improving heat reliability.

What timeline did the McKinsey analysis provide for TES scale-up relevant to Brenmiller (BNRG)?

McKinsey indicates notable adoption by 2030 and significant capacity expansion by 2035. According to Brenmiller, eight-hour systems show attractive returns by 2030 and capacity could exceed 200 GWh by 2035.

What risks could affect Brenmiller's (BNRG) ability to capture the cited European TES market?

Market-size estimates depend on energy prices, policy, and project execution risks over the next decade. According to Brenmiller, favorable electricity pricing dynamics and manufacturing scale will influence its ability to capture market share.