Resilient and Ready: Comerica Bank Survey Finds Small Businesses Poised for Growth in 2026 Despite Tariff and Inflation Pressures

Rhea-AI Summary

Comerica Bank (NYSE:CMA) released the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index for Q4 2025 showing continued optimism among small businesses despite economic headwinds. 80% of respondents are confident in their 12‑month outlook and 79% expect sales growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of 7.9%. The index edged down to 55.5 from 56.0 in Q3 2025. Capital plans remain notable: 57% plan 2026 capex averaging $109,000 (tech firms average $187,000). Key threats include inflation (23%) and tariffs (14%), with 42% reporting negative tariff effects and 29% reporting harm from the 43‑day government shutdown.

Positive

• 80% of small businesses confident in 12‑month outlook
• 79% expect sales growth; average projected increase of 7.9%
• 57% plan 2026 capex averaging $109,000
• 53% report Fed rate cuts positively impacted their business

Negative

• Comerica Small Business Index fell to 55.5 from 56.0 in Q3 2025
• 42% report negative effects from 2025 tariffs, hitting manufacturing and retail
• 29% reported negative impacts from the 43‑day government shutdown (Nov 13 end)

News Market Reaction

-0.19%

1 alert

-0.19% News Effect

On the day this news was published, CMA declined 0.19%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Owner confidence: 80% Sales growth expectation: 79% Projected sales increase: 7.9% +5 more

8 metrics

Owner confidence 80% Share of small business owners confident in 12‑month outlook

Sales growth expectation 79% Respondents expecting revenue growth in 2026

Projected sales increase 7.9% Average expected revenue growth in 2026

Capex planners 57% Respondents planning capital expenditures in 2026

Average capex $109,000 Average planned 2026 capital expenditures

Tech capex average $187,000 Average 2026 capex planned by technology firms

Tariff negatives 42% Small businesses reporting negative effects from 2025 tariffs

Shutdown impact 29% Respondents reporting negative effects from 43‑day government shutdown

Market Reality Check

Price: $90.32 Vol: Volume 1,512,435 vs 20-da...

normal vol

$90.32 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,512,435 vs 20-day average 1,389,875 (relative activity 1.09x). normal

Technical Price 89.88 trades above 200-day MA 65.56 and above prior 52-week high 88.23.

Peers on Argus

Regional bank peers show modest gains between 0.6% and 1.42%, while CMA is up 5....

Regional bank peers show modest gains between 0.6% and 1.42%, while CMA is up 5.3%, indicating a stronger, more stock-specific move though in the same positive direction as the group.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Dec 09 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 09	Small business survey	Positive	-0.2%	Release of Q4 2025 Small Business Pulse Index showing resilient optimism.
Dec 03	Community investment	Positive	+1.3%	Announcement of $850K AHP grant supporting new senior housing units.
Nov 21	Charity partnership	Positive	+2.6%	Detroit Lions fundraising campaign with matched donations for DBG - Detroit.
Nov 17	Activist presentation	Neutral	-3.3%	HoldCo Asset Management releases detailed presentation to Comerica directors.
Nov 04	Dividend declaration	Positive	+1.0%	Board declares $0.71 common dividend and initial Series B preferred dividend.

Pattern Detected

Recent news has been mostly constructive (community impact, dividends, survey data), with stock reactions generally positive, though the small-business survey previously saw a slight negative reaction.

Recent Company History

Over the last two months, Comerica’s news flow featured community initiatives, shareholder returns, activism and now its Small Business Pulse Index. The Q4 2025 survey showed 80% confidence and 79% expecting 2026 sales growth, though the index eased to 55.5. Earlier, an $850,000 affordable housing grant and a Detroit Lions charity campaign underscored community engagement, while a $0.71 common dividend highlighted capital return. An activist presentation by HoldCo introduced governance attention. Today’s sentiment survey reinforces the narrative of a resilient small-business customer base.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights resilient conditions among Comerica’s small‑business clients, with 80% ...

Analysis

This announcement highlights resilient conditions among Comerica’s small‑business clients, with 80% confident in their outlook and 79% expecting 2026 sales growth averaging 7.9%. The Small Business Index eased slightly to 55.5 but stayed in optimistic territory, and 57% plan 2026 capital spending averaging $109,000. Offsetting this strength, 42% report negative tariff effects and 29% cite harm from the 43‑day government shutdown. Investors may watch future index readings and capex trends to gauge durability of this optimism.

Key Terms

tariffs

1 terms

tariffs regulatory

"From tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown – yet their optimism..."

Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on goods imported from other countries. They increase the cost of those goods, which can lead to higher prices for consumers and impact international trade. For investors, tariffs matter because they can influence the profitability of companies, affect supply chains, and shift economic stability across different regions.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

• Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ recedes slightly from third to fourth quarters of 2025, but remains squarely optimistic
• 80% remain confident in business outlook; optimism strongest in the South and among tech firms, tariffs weigh heavily on retail and manufacturing

DALLAS, Dec. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- After a year marked by economic uncertainty, policy shifts, and a historic government shutdown, America's small businesses are entering 2026 with strength and resolve. According to the latest edition of the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™, 80% of surveyed small business owners are confident in their future success, and nearly 8 in 10 (79%) expect sales growth in the coming year – underscoring the sector's adaptability amid challenging conditions.

"Small businesses have navigated a year filled with challenges, from tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown – yet their optimism remains unwavering," says Larry Franco, Comerica Bank Executive Vice President and National Director of Retail & Small Business Banking. "This spirit speaks volumes about the adaptability and determination of America's entrepreneurs as they prepare for growth in 2026."

The national survey of 1,013 small business owners, conducted Nov. 4-16, 2025, highlights strong optimism among larger firms and technology-driven businesses while exposing persistent concerns over tariffs and inflation.

Key Findings from the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™

• Confidence Holds Strong: 80% of respondents are somewhat or very confident about their business outlook for the next 12 months. Confidence peaks in the South (83%) and among technology firms (93%), health care (90%), and businesses with 10 or more employees (88%). Housing and real estate firms report the lowest confidence at 67%.
• Sales Growth Expectations: 79% of respondents anticipate revenue growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of 7.9%. Technology and construction firms lead in optimism, while sole proprietors and retail businesses show more caution.
• Capital Investment Plans: 57% of respondents plan to make capital expenditures in 2026 averaging $109,000. Technology firms top the list with planned investments for 2026 averaging $187,000.
• Top Concerns: Inflation (23%) tops the list, followed by tariffs (14%) and government policies or regulations (11%).
• Tariff Impact: 42% of surveyed small businesses report negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, with manufacturing and retail sectors hardest hit. Most expect these impacts to persist or worsen in 2026.
• Interest Rate Relief: More than half (53%) of respondents say recent Federal Reserve rate cuts have positively impacted their business, prompting 1 in 3 to invest more or take calculated risks heading into 2026.
• Summary Statistics: The Comerica Small Business Index™ edged down to 55.5 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 56.0 in the third quarter, but still indicated squarely optimistic small business sentiment. Less upbeat expectations for Business Conditions and Sales Growth were partially offset by strengthening Capex Plans and stronger Own Business Confidence. (See table below.)

Government Shutdown: A Temporary Setback
The 43-day federal government shutdown that ended Nov. 13, 2025, left its mark on Main Street. Nearly 3 in 10 surveyed small businesses (29%) reported negative impacts, with the hardest hit areas coming in the D.C.-Maryland-Virginia region (49%), the leisure and hospitality sector (38%), and among firms with 25 or more employees (36%).

Despite these challenges, two-thirds of all respondents said they were unaffected, underscoring the adaptability of many small businesses even amid prolonged policy uncertainty.

Mitigating Tariff Impacts: How Small Businesses Are Adapting
With 42% of responding small businesses reporting negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, owners took or are considering decisive steps to protect their operations. Top mitigation strategies already taken or being considered include:

• Accessing Credit: 23% of surveyed small businesses take on new loans or tap credit lines; this rises to 26% among female-owned businesses (vs. 21% of male small business owners who reported the same).
• Workforce Adjustments: 22% of respondents freeze hiring or lay off staff, with higher rates among firms with 10 or more employees (28%) and retail businesses (24%).
• Personal Sacrifices: 18% of respondents tap personal savings, home equity, or retirement funds to offset shortfalls.
• Delaying Investments: Nearly 1 in 5 surveyed businesses have delayed or plan to scale back capital expenditures.

"Policy shifts, from tariffs to interest rate cuts, are reshaping how small businesses operate," added Franco. "While trade challenges have driven rising costs and supply chain disruptions, many owners are responding with creativity and leveraging lower borrowing costs to invest and innovate, signaling a proactive approach to growth in 2026."

Looking Ahead
Despite external pressures, small businesses are prioritizing efficiency, innovation, and growth in 2026. Nearly half (48%) of those surveyed cite improving operational efficiency as their top goal, while 45% of technology firms plan to integrate new technologies.

About the Survey
The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ surveyed 1,013 small business owners across the U.S. between November 4-16, 2025. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

About the Index
The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ is a diffusion index designed to track the state of small business confidence over time. Survey responses are ranked and assigned numeric scores from 0 (Most negative) to 100 (Most positive). The index is an equal-weighted average of survey responses measuring Own Business Confidence, Business Conditions Expectations, Sales Growth Expectations, and Capex Plans. The index and its components are not adjusted for seasonality.

	Q3 2025	Q4 2025  Q/Q Change
Comerica Small Business Pulse Index	56.0	55.5	-0.6
Index Components:
Own Business Confidence	73.4	73.5	0.1
Business Conditions Expectations	63.5	62.4	-1.1
Sales Growth Expectations	71.7	70.0	-1.7
Capex Plans	15.6	16.0	0.4

About Comerica Bank
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), which is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank and Wealth Management. Comerica, one of the 25 largest commercial U.S. financial holding companies, focuses on building relationships and helping people and businesses be successful. Comerica provides banking centers across the country with locations in Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Texas. Founded on Aug. 17, 1849, in Detroit, Michigan, Comerica has offices in 15 states and services 13 of the 15 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $77.4 billion at Sept. 30, 2025. Learn more about how Comerica is raising expectations of what a bank can be by visiting www.comerica.com, and follow us on Facebook, X, Instagram and LinkedIn.

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/resilient-and-ready-comerica-bank-survey-finds-small-businesses-poised-for-growth-in-2026-despite-tariff-and-inflation-pressures-302637000.html

SOURCE Comerica Bank

FAQ

What does Comerica's Q4 2025 Small Business Pulse Index mean for CMA shareholders?

The Q4 index of 55.5 signals continued small business optimism that may support local lending demand and commercial activity relevant to Comerica's franchise.

How many small businesses surveyed by Comerica (CMA) expect sales growth in 2026?

79% of respondents expect sales growth in 2026 with an average projected increase of 7.9%.

What capital expenditure plans did Comerica report for small businesses in 2026?

57% plan capital expenditures in 2026 averaging $109,000; technology firms average $187,000.

How did tariffs and inflation feature in Comerica's December 9, 2025 survey for CMA?

Inflation was the top concern at 23%, tariffs 14%, and 42% reported negative effects from 2025 tariffs.

What impact did the 43‑day government shutdown have in Comerica's small business survey dated Dec 9, 2025?

29% of surveyed small businesses reported negative impacts; the D.C.‑Maryland‑Virginia region reported 49% negative effects.