Resilient and Ready: Comerica Bank Survey Finds Small Businesses Poised for Growth in 2026 Despite Tariff and Inflation Pressures

Rhea-AI Summary

Comerica Bank (NYSE:CMA) released the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index for Q4 2025 showing continued optimism among small businesses despite economic headwinds. 80% of respondents are confident in their 12‑month outlook and 79% expect sales growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of 7.9%. The index edged down to 55.5 from 56.0 in Q3 2025. Capital plans remain notable: 57% plan 2026 capex averaging $109,000 (tech firms average $187,000). Key threats include inflation (23%) and tariffs (14%), with 42% reporting negative tariff effects and 29% reporting harm from the 43‑day government shutdown.

Positive

• 80% of small businesses confident in 12‑month outlook
• 79% expect sales growth; average projected increase of 7.9%
• 57% plan 2026 capex averaging $109,000
• 53% report Fed rate cuts positively impacted their business

Negative

• Comerica Small Business Index fell to 55.5 from 56.0 in Q3 2025
• 42% report negative effects from 2025 tariffs, hitting manufacturing and retail
• 29% reported negative impacts from the 43‑day government shutdown (Nov 13 end)

• Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ recedes slightly from third to fourth quarters of 2025, but remains squarely optimistic
• 80% remain confident in business outlook; optimism strongest in the South and among tech firms, tariffs weigh heavily on retail and manufacturing

DALLAS, Dec. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- After a year marked by economic uncertainty, policy shifts, and a historic government shutdown, America's small businesses are entering 2026 with strength and resolve. According to the latest edition of the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™, 80% of surveyed small business owners are confident in their future success, and nearly 8 in 10 (79%) expect sales growth in the coming year – underscoring the sector's adaptability amid challenging conditions.

"Small businesses have navigated a year filled with challenges, from tariffs and inflation to a prolonged government shutdown – yet their optimism remains unwavering," says Larry Franco, Comerica Bank Executive Vice President and National Director of Retail & Small Business Banking. "This spirit speaks volumes about the adaptability and determination of America's entrepreneurs as they prepare for growth in 2026."

The national survey of 1,013 small business owners, conducted Nov. 4-16, 2025, highlights strong optimism among larger firms and technology-driven businesses while exposing persistent concerns over tariffs and inflation.

Key Findings from the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™

• Confidence Holds Strong: 80% of respondents are somewhat or very confident about their business outlook for the next 12 months. Confidence peaks in the South (83%) and among technology firms (93%), health care (90%), and businesses with 10 or more employees (88%). Housing and real estate firms report the lowest confidence at 67%.
• Sales Growth Expectations: 79% of respondents anticipate revenue growth in 2026, with an average projected increase of 7.9%. Technology and construction firms lead in optimism, while sole proprietors and retail businesses show more caution.
• Capital Investment Plans: 57% of respondents plan to make capital expenditures in 2026 averaging $109,000. Technology firms top the list with planned investments for 2026 averaging $187,000.
• Top Concerns: Inflation (23%) tops the list, followed by tariffs (14%) and government policies or regulations (11%).
• Tariff Impact: 42% of surveyed small businesses report negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, with manufacturing and retail sectors hardest hit. Most expect these impacts to persist or worsen in 2026.
• Interest Rate Relief: More than half (53%) of respondents say recent Federal Reserve rate cuts have positively impacted their business, prompting 1 in 3 to invest more or take calculated risks heading into 2026.
• Summary Statistics: The Comerica Small Business Index™ edged down to 55.5 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 56.0 in the third quarter, but still indicated squarely optimistic small business sentiment. Less upbeat expectations for Business Conditions and Sales Growth were partially offset by strengthening Capex Plans and stronger Own Business Confidence. (See table below.)

Government Shutdown: A Temporary Setback
The 43-day federal government shutdown that ended Nov. 13, 2025, left its mark on Main Street. Nearly 3 in 10 surveyed small businesses (29%) reported negative impacts, with the hardest hit areas coming in the D.C.-Maryland-Virginia region (49%), the leisure and hospitality sector (38%), and among firms with 25 or more employees (36%).

Despite these challenges, two-thirds of all respondents said they were unaffected, underscoring the adaptability of many small businesses even amid prolonged policy uncertainty.

Mitigating Tariff Impacts: How Small Businesses Are Adapting
With 42% of responding small businesses reporting negative effects from tariffs introduced in 2025, owners took or are considering decisive steps to protect their operations. Top mitigation strategies already taken or being considered include:

• Accessing Credit: 23% of surveyed small businesses take on new loans or tap credit lines; this rises to 26% among female-owned businesses (vs. 21% of male small business owners who reported the same).
• Workforce Adjustments: 22% of respondents freeze hiring or lay off staff, with higher rates among firms with 10 or more employees (28%) and retail businesses (24%).
• Personal Sacrifices: 18% of respondents tap personal savings, home equity, or retirement funds to offset shortfalls.
• Delaying Investments: Nearly 1 in 5 surveyed businesses have delayed or plan to scale back capital expenditures.

"Policy shifts, from tariffs to interest rate cuts, are reshaping how small businesses operate," added Franco. "While trade challenges have driven rising costs and supply chain disruptions, many owners are responding with creativity and leveraging lower borrowing costs to invest and innovate, signaling a proactive approach to growth in 2026."

Looking Ahead
Despite external pressures, small businesses are prioritizing efficiency, innovation, and growth in 2026. Nearly half (48%) of those surveyed cite improving operational efficiency as their top goal, while 45% of technology firms plan to integrate new technologies.

About the Survey
The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ surveyed 1,013 small business owners across the U.S. between November 4-16, 2025. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level.

About the Index
The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index™ is a diffusion index designed to track the state of small business confidence over time. Survey responses are ranked and assigned numeric scores from 0 (Most negative) to 100 (Most positive). The index is an equal-weighted average of survey responses measuring Own Business Confidence, Business Conditions Expectations, Sales Growth Expectations, and Capex Plans. The index and its components are not adjusted for seasonality.

	Q3 2025	Q4 2025  Q/Q Change
Comerica Small Business Pulse Index	56.0	55.5	-0.6
Index Components:
Own Business Confidence	73.4	73.5	0.1
Business Conditions Expectations	63.5	62.4	-1.1
Sales Growth Expectations	71.7	70.0	-1.7
Capex Plans	15.6	16.0	0.4

About Comerica Bank
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), which is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank and Wealth Management. Comerica, one of the 25 largest commercial U.S. financial holding companies, focuses on building relationships and helping people and businesses be successful. Comerica provides banking centers across the country with locations in Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Texas. Founded on Aug. 17, 1849, in Detroit, Michigan, Comerica has offices in 15 states and services 13 of the 15 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $77.4 billion at Sept. 30, 2025. Learn more about how Comerica is raising expectations of what a bank can be by visiting www.comerica.com, and follow us on Facebook, X, Instagram and LinkedIn.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank

FAQ

What does Comerica's Q4 2025 Small Business Pulse Index mean for CMA shareholders?

The Q4 index of 55.5 signals continued small business optimism that may support local lending demand and commercial activity relevant to Comerica's franchise.

How many small businesses surveyed by Comerica (CMA) expect sales growth in 2026?

79% of respondents expect sales growth in 2026 with an average projected increase of 7.9%.

What capital expenditure plans did Comerica report for small businesses in 2026?

57% plan capital expenditures in 2026 averaging $109,000; technology firms average $187,000.

How did tariffs and inflation feature in Comerica's December 9, 2025 survey for CMA?

Inflation was the top concern at 23%, tariffs 14%, and 42% reported negative effects from 2025 tariffs.

What impact did the 43‑day government shutdown have in Comerica's small business survey dated Dec 9, 2025?

29% of surveyed small businesses reported negative impacts; the D.C.‑Maryland‑Virginia region reported 49% negative effects.