Better outlook for the future pushes farmer sentiment higher

Rhea-AI Summary

CME (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer) jumped 10 points in November to 139, its highest reading since June, driven by a 15-point rise in the Future Expectations Index to 144 while Current Conditions fell 2 points to 128. The survey (Nov. 10-14) cited a late-October U.S.-China trade pact and a sharp crop price rally—corn +10% and soybeans +15% from mid-Oct to mid-Nov—as key drivers.

Other measures: Farm Financial Performance +14 points to 92; Farm Capital Investment -6 to 56; Short-Term Farmland Expectations 116; Long-Term Farmland Expectations a record 165. MFP "very likely" dropped to 16%.

Positive

• Ag Economy Barometer +10 points to 139 (Nov)
• Future Expectations +15 points to 144
• Farm Financial Performance +14 points to 92
• Corn prices +10% and soybean prices +15% (mid-Oct to mid-Nov)
• Long-Term Farmland Expectations record high 165

Negative

• Current Conditions slipped 2 points to 128
• Farm Capital Investment fell 6 points to 56
• MFP "very likely" responses dropped to 16% (from 62% in Sept)
• Livestock outlook weakened due to declining cattle prices

News Market Reaction

-0.54%

1 alert

-0.54% News Effect

On the day this news was published, CME declined 0.54%, reflecting a mild negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Ag Economy Barometer: 139 Future Expectations Index: 144 Current Conditions Index: 128 +5 more

8 metrics

Ag Economy Barometer 139 November 2025 reading, up 10 points from October

Future Expectations Index 144 November 2025, up 15 points; reflects improved outlook

Current Conditions Index 128 November 2025, down 2 points vs October

Farm Financial Performance Index 92 November 2025, up 14 points vs October

Farm Capital Investment Index 56 November 2025, down 6 points; cautious investment stance

Corn price change 10% Eastern Corn Belt fall-delivery prices mid-Oct to mid-Nov

Soybean price change 15% Eastern Corn Belt fall-delivery prices mid-Oct to mid-Nov

Long-Term Farmland Value Index 165 Record high November 2025 reading

Market Reality Check

Price: $302.27 Vol: Volume 1,707,550 is at 0....

normal vol

$302.27 Last Close

Volume Volume 1,707,550 is at 0.83x the 20-day average of 2,062,888, indicating relatively muted trading activity ahead of this release. normal

Technical Shares at 272.41 are trading below the 200-day MA of 270.30, suggesting a modestly weaker trend setup pre-news.

Peers on Argus

CME was down 1.4% while key peers like ICE (+1.21%), NDAQ (+1.78%), COIN (+0.79%...

CME was down 1.4% while key peers like ICE (+1.21%), NDAQ (+1.78%), COIN (+0.79%), and SPGI (+0.88%) traded higher, pointing to stock-specific softness rather than a sector-wide move.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Dec 02 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Dec 02	Regulatory approval	Positive	-0.5%	SEC approved registration of new CME Securities Clearing Inc. for U.S. Treasuries.
Dec 02	Macro sentiment update	Positive	-0.5%	Ag Economy Barometer and related indices climbed on better crop prices and trade outlook.
Dec 02	Volume milestone	Positive	-0.5%	Reported November ADV of 33.1M contracts, second-highest month ever with broad product strength.
Nov 24	Crypto volume record	Positive	+0.9%	Cryptocurrency futures and options hit all-time daily volume record on November 21, 2025.
Nov 24	Treasury OI record	Positive	+0.9%	U.S. Treasury futures and options open interest reached 35.1M contracts with heavy trading volumes.

Pattern Detected

Recent CME headlines—including records in crypto and Treasury activity and today’s farmer sentiment data—were mostly positive, yet three of the last five such announcements coincided with negative price reactions, indicating a pattern of modest selling into good news.

Recent Company History

Over the past few weeks, CME issued several constructive updates. On Nov 20–21, 2025, it reported record U.S. Treasury open interest and all‑time highs in cryptocurrency volumes, both followed by +0.95% moves. On Dec 2, 2025, it highlighted second‑highest monthly ADV and SEC approval for a new securities clearing house, but shares fell 0.54%. Today’s Ag Economy Barometer release continues a run of strong operational and sentiment data that has not always translated into upside.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlighted a stronger agricultural backdrop, with the Ag Economy Barometer at 139...

Analysis

This announcement highlighted a stronger agricultural backdrop, with the Ag Economy Barometer at 139 and the Future Expectations Index at 144, helped by corn and soybean price gains of 10% and 15%. For CME, which partners on this gauge, it adds to a run of robust volume and open-interest updates. Investors may track whether sustained optimism in farm finances and land values supports demand for risk management tools and how this interacts with broader rate, crypto, and Treasury trading trends.

Key Terms

market facilitation program (mfp)

1 terms

market facilitation program (mfp) regulatory

"similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP). However, confidence in"

A market facilitation program (MFP) is a government initiative that provides payments or other support to producers and markets to ease the impact of sudden price swings, trade disruptions, or supply shocks—think of it as a temporary safety net for a particular sector. Investors care because MFPs can boost producer income, change commodity supply and prices, and therefore alter revenue and profit forecasts for companies tied to those commodities, influencing stock and bond valuations.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Dec. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- November brought the highest farmer sentiment reading since June, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer jumping 10 points from October to 139. The increase was driven primarily by producers' more optimistic outlook for the future, as the Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index dipped 2 points to 128. November's survey is the first conducted after the late-October announcement of a U.S.-China trade pact that includes provisions to expand U.S. agricultural exports and revealed a notable improvement in producers' confidence in future export opportunities. Sentiment also received support from a sharp rise in crop prices between mid-October and mid-November. The barometer survey took place Nov. 10-14.

Producers were more optimistic about their farms' financial performance in November, with the Farm Financial Performance Index increasing by 14 points to 92. The percentage of producers expecting better financial results this year grew to 24%, up from 16% in October. A sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November was a key driver of the expectation for better financial performance. For example, eastern Corn Belt prices for fall delivery of corn and soybeans increased 10% and 15%, respectively, during that period. The stronger financial outlook in the crop sector compensated for a weaker outlook in the livestock sector, where declining cattle prices weighed on financial expectations. Despite the improved farm financial outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to 56, with only 16% of respondents indicating that now is a good time to make major investments in their operations.

"Producers became more optimistic about U.S. agricultural trade prospects in November. That coincided with a rise in crop prices, which led to farmers' improved expectations for their farms' financial performance and an improvement in farmer sentiment," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Producers were more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. In response to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken over the next five years, down from 14% in October and 30% in March. In a related question, 47% of corn producers indicated they expect soybean exports to increase over the next five years, while 8% anticipate a decline. The stronger trade outlook likely contributed to the overall improvement in sentiment observed in November.

A majority of producers in November reported that they still expect to receive a supplementary support payment from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP). However, confidence in receiving the payment fell sharply in November: Only 16% of respondents said an MFP payment was "very likely," down from 62% in September. Still, when combining the "likely" and "very likely" categories, just over three-fourths of producers (76%) said they expect an MFP payment, compared to 83% in September. Regarding how they plan to use an MFP payment, 58% of respondents said they would use it to "pay down debt," up from 52% in October.

For the second month in a row, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased, reaching 116 in November, which is 3 points higher than October and 10 points above September. Farmers' long-term outlook on farmland values also improved, with the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increasing by 4 points to a record high of 165. The November survey also asked corn producers about their expectations for 2026 cash rental rates. Nearly three-fourths of respondents (74%) said they expect rental rates to remain roughly the same as this year, consistent with responses from the July and August surveys. The relatively strong outlook for cash rent further supports farmland values.

"The record-high reading of the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index indicates that farmers retain an optimistic long-run outlook for agriculture," Langemeier said. "Although rising crop prices and improved trade prospects have bolstered optimism, producers remain cautious in their investment and production decisions, reflecting the short-term uncertainty they face."

The November survey asked corn producers about possible changes to their production practices in 2026 due to expected weak operating margins. Among those producers planning to make adjustments, two practices were highlighted most often: switching to lower-cost seed traits or varieties and reducing phosphorus applications. Producers followed up by pointing to reductions in corn seeding rates and nitrogen application rates as potential changes. Still, a substantial portion of producers (40%) said they do not plan to make any changes to their corn production practices in 2026.

Recent barometer surveys have included questions on farmers' attitudes toward 2025 policy shifts. A majority of respondents in November (59%) and October (58%) said they expect U.S. tariffs to ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. This is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents anticipated that tariffs would have a long-term positive effect. The percentage of producers expressing uncertainty about the long-term impact of U.S. tariff policy has risen in recent months. In October, 16% of respondents said they were uncertain, rising slightly to 17% in November, roughly double the 8% reported in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds of farmers (67%) in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the "right direction," down from 72% in October.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 106,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its integrated, comprehensive Indianapolis urban expansion; the Mitch Daniels School of Business; Purdue Computes; and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

Sources and Notes block:
Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

CME-G

 

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/better-outlook-for-the-future-pushes-farmer-sentiment-higher-302630361.html

SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What did the November 2025 Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer report for CME?

The barometer rose 10 points to 139 in November 2025, the highest since June, with Future Expectations at 144.

How did corn and soybean prices move before the Nov. 10-14, 2025 survey?

Eastern Corn Belt fall-delivery prices rose about 10% for corn and 15% for soybeans from mid-October to mid-November.

What does the November 2025 barometer say about farmland value expectations for CME-related markets?

Short-term farmland expectations reached 116, and long-term expectations hit a record 165 in November 2025.

How did producers' investment intentions change in November 2025 according to the survey?

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell to 56, and only 16% said an MFP payment was "very likely."

Did the November 2025 survey show improved trade expectations affecting CME markets?

Yes; respondents were more optimistic about future U.S. agricultural exports, with fewer expecting export declines over five years.