Optimism grows in October as current conditions improve

Only 35% of surveyed farmers believed increased U.S. tariffs would strengthen agriculture in the long run, versus 49%–70% in previous surveys.

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CME Group (CME) and Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer rose to 126 in October, reflecting improved sentiment among surveyed farmers. The reading increased from 123 in September, based on a survey of 400 farmers conducted Oct. 12–16, 2026.

The Index of Current Conditions rose 16 points, while the Index of Future Expectations fell 2 points. The Farm Financial Performance Index increased from 90 to 94, and the Farm Capital Investment Index rose from 39 to 55. Only 20% said it was a good time to invest in machinery and buildings. High input costs remained the biggest concern.

Among respondents, 62% described their balance sheets as strong, compared with 75% in January 2026; 60% reported a solid working capital position. Short-term farmland value expectations fell 1 point to 125, while the long-term index declined 6 points to 162.

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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Nov. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment improved in October as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose from 123 points in September to 126. The survey reported a 16-point increase in the Index of Current Conditions. The increase coincided with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's distribution of Agriculture Risk Coverage Price Loss Coverage payments, although the survey did not specifically ask respondents about the effect of those payments. Although the Index of Future Expectations fell 2 points, with high input costs remaining the biggest concern, the Farm Financial Performance Index rose from 90 to 94, and the Farm Capital Investment Index jumped from 39 to 55. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from Oct. 12-16.

Improvements in both the Farm Financial Performance Index and the Farm Capital Investment Index indicate that producers' financial expectations were modestly stronger in October. Although investment sentiment reached its strongest reading in nearly a year, most respondents noted they still hesitate to make large investments, with only 20% saying now is a good time to invest in machinery and buildings.

This month's survey included questions about farm resilience and the ability to withstand market shocks. Among respondents, 62% agreed or strongly agreed that their balance sheets are strong, and 60% agreed or strongly agreed in a related question about having a solid working capital position, suggesting many farms remain financially resilient. However, the January 2026 survey reported that 75% of respondents indicated they had a strong balance sheet. The drop from January to October hints at producers being less confident in their financial position this month than at the beginning of the year.

Though the surveyed producers remained optimistic about farmland values over the next five years, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 1 point to 125, while the Long-Term Index dropped 6 points to 162. Alternative investments, interest rates and inflation were identified as the three factors having the greatest influence on farmland values.

Two questions highlighted growing producer concern about the long-run policy environment. Previous surveys found that between 49% and 70% of respondents believed that the increased use of tariffs in the U.S. would strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. This month, only 35% held that view. In addition, fewer than half of respondents (48%) said the country is headed in the "right direction," marking the second consecutive month that this share remained below the average of 60% from July 2025 to June 2026. 

"While producers saw some relief this month due to government program support, many remain uncertain about how future policy decisions could affect agriculture," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Responses to our policy questions suggest that concerns about trade policy and the country's broader direction are shaping how producers view agriculture's long-term prospects."

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group

As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University

Purdue University is a research institution ranked among the top 10 public universities in the United States. More than 111,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, including more than 57,000 at our main campus locations in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. As a land-grant university committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 14 years in a row, enabling more students than ever to graduate debt-free.

Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557

Author: Morgan French

Image caption: Optimism grows in October as current conditions improve. (Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/Michael Langemeier)

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SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

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What did the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer show in October 2026?

The Ag Economy Barometer rose to 126 from 123 in September. Current conditions improved, but future expectations weakened. The survey covered 400 farmers nationwide and was conducted Oct. 12–16.

Did government payments cause the October 2026 increase in the Purdue/CME farmer sentiment survey?

The survey did not specifically ask respondents about the effect of government payments. The increase in current conditions coincided with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's distribution of Agriculture Risk Coverage Price Loss Coverage payments, but the survey did not establish their effect.