2026 COLUMBIA BANK BUSINESS BAROMETER: U.S. Small and Midsize Businesses Poised for Growth, Waiting to Make Significant Moves

Rhea-AI Summary

Columbia Bank (NASDAQ:COLB) released its 2026 Business Barometer surveying 1,186 U.S. small and middle market businesses on outlook, investment, AI, tariffs and fraud.

Key findings: 63% will prioritize investments over cost-cutting, yet 59% plan a six-month pause before major decisions amid tariffs, inflation and energy cost pressures. Most expect higher demand, revenue and profitability and are likely to invest in digitization, expansion, real estate, hiring and acquisitions. AI is now the top investment priority, while widespread fraud losses and tariff volatility are reshaping risk management and financing strategies.

News Market Reaction – COLB

+1.71%

+1.71% Session close to close

In the Jun 25 session, COLB gained 1.71%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Market Context

This announcement highlights broad business optimism, with 63% prioritizing investment and extensive...

Analysis

This announcement highlights broad business optimism, with 63% prioritizing investment and extensive AI-driven productivity expectations among 1,186 surveyed firms. For COLB, it underscores client demand potential, but fraud losses and tariff volatility are key risks to monitor.

Key Figures

Investment priority horizon: 63% prioritize investments Decision delay window: 59% monitoring 6 months AI productivity impact: 96% expect productivity gains +5 more

8 metrics

Investment priority horizon 63% prioritize investments Businesses favor investments over cost-cutting in next 12 months

Decision delay window 59% monitoring 6 months Plan to watch conditions before major decisions

AI productivity impact 96% expect productivity gains Perceived effect of AI over next 12 months

AI roles impact 89% expect more skilled roles AI’s expected effect on workforce composition

AI investment intent AI is top priority Ranked leading investment area for small and middle market firms

Fraud loss incidence 7 in 10 had losses Businesses reporting financial loss from fraud in past 12 months

Tariff outlook 85% expect volatility ≥1 year Expected duration of significant tariff volatility

Survey scope 1,186 decision-makers U.S. small and middle market businesses surveyed in 2026 Barometer

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: May 15 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	24h Move	Catalyst
May 15	Dividend declaration	Positive	-1.2%	Board-approved quarterly dividend of $0.37 per common share.
Apr 30	Business expansion	Positive	+1.6%	Launch of Franchise Banking Team to deepen franchise sector capabilities.
Apr 23	Quarterly earnings	Neutral	-1.4%	Reported 1Q26 results with net income, EPS, NIM and capital metrics.
Apr 22	Industry awards	Positive	+0.1%	Recognition for middle market banking satisfaction metrics in U.S. West.
Mar 31	Earnings date set	Neutral	+2.4%	Announcement of timing for 1Q26 earnings release and conference call.

24h Move is the share-price change in the day after each event; other market factors may also have contributed.

Pattern Detected

Recent news shows mixed reactions, including a selloff on a positive dividend and stronger gains on operational updates.

Key Terms

positive pay, payee positive pay, ach positive pay, margin of error

4 terms

positive pay financial

"implement fraud protection solutions, such as positive pay, payee positive pay and ACH positive pay"

A bank service that helps a company prevent check fraud by comparing checks presented for payment against a preapproved list of issued checks and stopping any that don't match. Think of it as a bouncer checking a guest list before letting people in — it protects a company’s cash, reduces unexpected losses, and signals stronger financial controls, which matters to investors because it lowers operational and credit risk and helps preserve shareholder value.

payee positive pay financial

"implement fraud protection solutions, such as positive pay, payee positive pay and ACH positive pay"

A bank fraud-prevention service where a business provides the bank a list of authorized checks (check numbers, amounts and the named recipients) and the bank compares that list to checks presented for payment, flagging any mismatches for approval before clearing. For investors, it matters because it helps protect a company’s cash balance and shows stronger internal controls—reducing the chance of surprise losses or accounting errors that can affect short-term liquidity and financial reliability.

ach positive pay financial

"implement fraud protection solutions, such as positive pay, payee positive pay and ACH positive pay"

ACH Positive Pay is a bank service that helps prevent unauthorized electronic withdrawals by matching incoming ACH debit requests against a preapproved list provided by the account holder. Think of it like giving the bank a vetted guest list so only known payments are allowed; any mismatch is flagged or blocked. For investors, it matters because it protects a company’s cash balances and reduces the risk of surprise losses or operational disruptions that can affect financial stability and reporting.

margin of error technical

"The survey ... has a 2.7% margin of error and was fielded from April 28 to May 7, 2026."

The margin of error is a measure of how much the results of a survey or estimate might differ from the true value, due to random chance. It indicates the level of uncertainty in the data, helping investors understand how much confidence to place in the results. Think of it like the wiggle room around a guess—smaller margins mean more precise estimates.

AI-generated analysis. How Rhea-AI works. Not financial advice.

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Rising expectations for increased productivity, profitability and growth opportunities
tempered by near-term uncertainty and volatility

• 12-month outlook: 63% will prioritize investments over cost-cutting
• 6-month pause: 59% will monitor conditions for now before major decisions

Comprehensive nationwide study surveyed nearly 1,200 businesses on their economic outlook, growth and hiring plans, AI impacts, tariff implications and fraud concerns

TACOMA, Wash., June 25, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Columbia Bank today released the findings from its 2026 Business Barometer, an annual study examining the outlook, priorities and decision-making of nearly 1,200 small and middle market enterprises across the United States.

This year's results point to growing confidence among business leaders that efficiency and productivity gains over the next 12 months will translate to increased profitability and greater opportunities to invest in technology, expansion and hiring between now and the middle of 2027.

Fueled by a notable year-over-year improvement in the outlook of smaller enterprises, a record number of both small and middle market businesses say they are prioritizing making investments over cutting costs. However, their optimism remains measured. While businesses are confident in their 12-month outlook, 3 in 5 indicate they plan to delay major decisions for at least six months as they monitor current pressures from tariffs, inflation and rising energy costs.

"This year's study indicates that small and middle market businesses are approaching the next 12 months with relative confidence and an appetite for growth, which bodes well for the broader economy," said Tory Nixon, President of Columbia Bank. "At the same time, near-term volatility and current headwinds are real. Business leaders are ready to invest but are timing those decisions carefully."

Notable findings from Columbia Bank's 2026 Business Barometer include the following:

Advances in AI Capabilities Are Shaping Expectations for Future Growth
The survey and focus groups conducted as part of this year's study indicate that recent advances in AI capabilities are in part driving the positive 12-month outlook, even as businesses navigate economic uncertainty and cashflow constraints.

Over the next 12 months, most businesses believe AI advances will:

• Increase (significantly/somewhat) productivity (96%)
• Increase employee satisfaction and retention (92%)
• Create the need for more skilled or specialized roles (89%)
• Deliver efficiencies so employees can focus on higher-level tasks and will increase headcount as business grows (63%)
• Strengthen their business overall (59%)

AI is now the top investment priority and spiked significantly as a concern for both small and middle market businesses, indicating more enterprises see its fast-emerging capabilities as critical to remain competitive. One in 10 businesses believes AI advances pose a threat to their viability.

12-Month Outlook: Businesses of All Sizes Prioritize Investments over Cost-Cutting
This year's survey indicates strong and almost equal appetite from both small and middle market businesses to invest in strategic priorities that promote efficiency, growth and strengthen their competitive edge. Notwithstanding potential delays on significant investment decisions, the numbers below represent the strongest 12-month investment trajectory since the study began in 2019.

Businesses eye strong performance over the next 12 months:

• 72% anticipate increased demand
• 67% anticipate increased revenue
• 59% anticipate increased profitability

As a result, many are also preparing to invest in their business:

• 89% are likely (very/somewhat) to invest in digitizing new areas
• 70% are likely to borrow to invest in expansion
• 62% are likely to increase real estate footprint
• 51% anticipate increasing the number of employees
• 36% are likely to acquire another business

Cybersecurity and Fraud Threats Prove Costly, Drive Investment Priorities
More businesses are stepping up efforts to protect their operations as fraud risks evolve and exposures increase with scale. From sophisticated cyberattacks to routine check fraud, businesses are paying the price. In the past 12 months, 7 in 10 have experienced financial loss from fraud, with fake vendor scams and phishing attacks cited as the most common schemes.

• 43% of small businesses report losses between $5,000 and $100,000, including 23% with losses exceeding $10,000
• 22% of middle market companies report losses in excess of $50,000

Cybersecurity ranks as a top three investment priority, and businesses of all sizes are planning to invest in related fraud safeguards.

• 44% will upgrade payment or authentication technology
• 42% will work with their bank to implement fraud protection solutions, such as positive pay, payee positive pay and ACH positive pay
• 41% will implement stricter vendor verification processes

"While cybersecurity and fraud prevention are investment priorities for businesses, our research indicates that half or fewer have implemented many of the most common fraud prevention tools such as stronger authentication safeguards and eliminating physical checks from their payment processes," said Kathryn Albright, Head of Global Payments and Deposits at Columbia Bank. "As companies prepare to invest in growth, it's imperative they also invest in protecting their operations, strengthening payment systems and enhancing their ability to manage increasingly complex fraud risks."

The Biggest Tariff Impact: Implementation Volatility, Not Price Tag
While negative tariff impacts skew towards middle market companies with larger operations, input from leaders in both segments indicates that the unpredictability of tariff implementation has been more challenging than direct tariff costs. Delays, exemptions and shifting percentage amounts have made planning difficult. To manage actual tariff-related costs, businesses have employed numerous strategies. Small businesses are more likely than the middle market to pass increases on to customers, while middle market companies are more likely to cover costs with loans or lines of credit and to delay investments and hiring decisions.

• 67% of small businesses say tariffs either had no impact (36%) or benefited (31%) them
• 48% of middle market companies say tariffs have been harmful
• 85% of businesses expect tariff volatility to remain a significant factor for at least one year, while 40% say three or more years
• 74% of all businesses that have paid tariffs will seek a refund

To download Columbia Bank's 2026 Business Barometer, visit: columbiabank.com/business-barometer

Survey Methodology
The Columbia Bank 2026 Business Barometer, conducted annually, surveyed 1,186 owners, executives and financial decision-makers from U.S. small and middle market businesses. The online survey was conducted in partnership with DHM Research, a public policy and business research firm, and targeted leaders at companies with $500,000 to $500 million in annual revenue. The survey, which did not filter for Columbia Bank customers, has a 2.7% margin of error and was fielded from April 28 to May 7, 2026.

About Columbia Bank
Columbia Bank is an award-winning preeminent regional bank with offices in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Washington. It combines the resources, sophistication, and expertise of a national bank with a commitment to deliver superior, personalized service. The bank supports consumers and businesses through a full suite of services, including retail and commercial banking, Small Business Administration lending, institutional and corporate banking, and equipment leasing. Columbia Bank customers also have access to comprehensive investment and wealth management expertise as well as healthcare and private banking through Columbia Wealth Management. Columbia Bank is the principal subsidiary of Columbia Banking System, Inc. (Nasdaq: COLB). Learn more at columbiabank.com and columbiabankingsystem.com.

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SOURCE Columbia Bank

FAQ

What is the 2026 Columbia Bank Business Barometer and who was surveyed?

The 2026 Columbia Bank Business Barometer is an annual survey of U.S. small and middle market businesses. According to Columbia Bank, the 2026 study polled 1,186 owners, executives and financial decision-makers at firms with $500,000 to $500 million in annual revenue.

What does the 2026 Columbia Bank (NASDAQ:COLB) Business Barometer say about business investment plans?

The 2026 Business Barometer reports strong intentions to prioritize investment over cost-cutting in the next 12 months. According to Columbia Bank, 63% of businesses will emphasize investments, with high likelihood of spending on digitization, expansion, real estate, borrowing for growth and even acquiring other businesses.

How are AI advancements expected to affect small and midsize businesses in the 2026 Columbia Bank study?

AI advancements are expected to boost productivity, employee satisfaction and skilled-role demand over the next year. According to Columbia Bank, 96% foresee higher productivity, 92% better satisfaction and retention, and 89% more skilled roles, while AI has become the top investment priority and a growing concern.

What fraud and cybersecurity trends are highlighted in the 2026 Columbia Bank Business Barometer?

The Barometer shows significant financial losses from fraud, including cyberattacks, fake vendor scams and phishing. According to Columbia Bank, seven in ten businesses reported fraud losses in the past 12 months, pushing cybersecurity into a top-three investment priority and driving upgrades to payment technology and verification processes.

How do tariffs impact businesses in the 2026 Columbia Bank (COLB) Business Barometer findings?

Tariffs mainly create planning challenges through volatility in implementation rather than direct costs. According to Columbia Bank, 67% of small firms report no impact or benefits, while 48% of middle market companies view tariffs as harmful, and many expect tariff volatility to last at least one year.

What is the 12-month economic outlook for small and midsize businesses in the 2026 Columbia Bank report?

The 12-month outlook shows many businesses expecting stronger demand, revenue and profitability. According to Columbia Bank, 72% anticipate increased demand, 67% higher revenue and 59% greater profitability, though 59% plan to delay major decisions for at least six months due to current economic pressures.