Compass Market Outlook: 2026 Will Bring the Most Balanced Housing Market in Years
Rhea-AI Summary
Compass (NYSE: COMP) released its 2026 Housing Market Outlook projecting a more balanced U.S. housing market as prices flatten and activity resumes. The report forecasts national home prices +0.5%, inventory +5%, average mortgage rates ~6.4%, and existing-home sales rising 4.25%–5% from 2025.
Key drivers identified are faster wage growth than home prices, renewed geographic mobility, and divergent regional outcomes with a continuing luxury-segment outperformance for $1M+ transactions.
Positive
- Home prices forecast flat: +0.5% nationally
- Inventory expected to increase 5%
- Existing-home sales projected to rise 4.25%–5%
- Luxury transactions (>$1M) expected to continue outperforming
Negative
- Mortgage rates projected to average ~6.4%, limiting affordability for rate-sensitive buyers
- Regional divergence: some Sun Belt markets show price declines amid excess inventory
Key Figures
Market Reality Check
Peers on Argus
COMP fell -2.68% while peers were mixed: NMRK +0.35%, CIGI +1.69%, CWK +1.33%, OPEN -4.11%, FSV -0.34%. This points to stock-specific factors rather than a broad sector move.
Historical Context
| Date | Event | Sentiment | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18 | Resort expansion | Positive | -0.3% | Announcement of Equinox luxury marina resort and residences in Anguilla. |
| Nov 18 | Merger agreement | Positive | -0.3% | All-stock merger deal with Anywhere Real Estate creating larger platform. |
| Nov 10 | Platform feature launch | Positive | +2.8% | Launch of Compass Cares integration for charitable giving at close. |
| Nov 04 | Earnings results | Positive | +7.5% | Record Q3 2025 results with strong revenue and EBITDA growth. |
| Oct 16 | Earnings scheduling | Neutral | +0.3% | Announcement of timing and access details for Q3 2025 earnings call. |
Recent fundamental and strategic positives (earnings, merger announcement) generally saw aligned or mildly negative reactions, with some divergence on strategic expansion news.
Over the last few months, Compass has reported several notable developments. Record Q3 2025 results on Nov 4 featured strong revenue and profitability metrics and coincided with a 7.46% gain. Earlier, an earnings-date announcement on Oct 16 saw a modest 0.27% rise. Strategic moves included an all-stock merger agreement with Anywhere Real Estate, implying about $10 billion enterprise value, and a luxury marina resort project under the Equinox Hotels brand, both followed by small declines. A Compass Cares product update on Nov 10 aligned with a 2.81% increase. Today’s macro housing outlook fits into this backdrop of growth initiatives and expanding platform reach.
Market Pulse Summary
This announcement outlines Compass’s view that 2026 could be a more balanced U.S. housing market, with national home prices roughly flat at about +0.5%, inventory up 5%, and existing home sales rising 4.25%–5%. It also highlights a luxury segment above $1 million that is expected to remain resilient. In the context of recent strong Q3 2025 results and an announced merger with Anywhere Real Estate, investors may watch how these macro forecasts align with Compass’s actual transaction volumes and margins.
AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.
As 2026 approaches, expectations on both sides of the transaction are resetting. Prices are flattening, more inventory is coming online, and rising wages are improving affordability. Together, these shifts are poised to bring long-delayed buyers and sellers back into the market, setting the stage for stronger sales.
The report identifies three major dynamics that are expected to shape 2026's housing market:
- Improved affordability as wages grow faster than home prices.
- A return to American mobility, as people who have wanted or needed to move can finally do so.
- Diverging economic and geographic conditions creating different outcomes, with luxury segments continuing to outperform entry-level properties.
"The market is shifting toward a new era where incomes rise faster than home prices and the deep freeze of the last few years begins to thaw," said Simonsen. "After years of delay, anyone looking to make a move should finally see greater opportunities to take the leap."
Additionally, the report projects four key housing market metrics: mortgage rates, home prices, sales volumes, and inventory. Nationally, home prices are expected to be flat, with growth at +
The report notes that national averages can obscure meaningful differences across regions. Where housing supply remains constrained across the Northeast and Midwest, some Sun Belt states have already seen prices dip amid persistent excess inventory. These divergent dynamics will continue to shape the on-the-ground realities for consumers locally.
Similarly, as AI-driven equities have fueled a surge in wealth creation, the luxury tier of the housing market – transactions over
Overall, Compass' Outlook predicts that 2026 will mark a turning point for the
The 2026 Compass Housing Market Outlook is available by going to compass.com/research/market-outlook.
Media Contact
Devin Daly Huerta
devin.daly@compass.com
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SOURCE COMPASS
FAQ
What does Compass forecast for national home price growth in 2026 for COMP?
How much does Compass expect inventory to change in 2026 for COMP guidance?
What sales growth does Compass predict for existing-home sales in 2026 (COMP)?
What mortgage rate does Compass expect to support higher sales in 2026 (COMP)?
Why does Compass expect the luxury housing segment to outperform in 2026 (COMP)?
Which U.S. regions does Compass say will diverge in 2026 (COMP)?
