Dominion Energy Virginia releases comprehensive long-term plan to meet growing power demand with reliable, affordable and increasingly clean electricity

Rhea-AI Summary

Dominion Energy Virginia has filed its 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with regulatory commissions, outlining strategies to meet rising power demand through significant investments in various energy sources. The plan emphasizes reliable, affordable, and increasingly clean electricity, with nearly 80% of incremental power generation over the next 15 years being carbon-free.

Key highlights include:

• ~3,400 MW of new offshore wind
• ~12,000 MW of new solar (150% increase)
• ~4,500 MW of new battery storage
• Small modular nuclear reactors from mid-2030s
• 20% of incremental power from natural gas as backup

The plan addresses a projected 5.5% annual growth in power demand for the next decade, doubling by 2039. Dominion Energy is also investing in grid expansion and modernization, including transmission projects and distribution grid improvements to enhance reliability and support renewable integration.

Positive

• Nearly 80% of incremental power generation over 15 years will be carbon-free
• Planned addition of ~3,400 MW new offshore wind
• Planned addition of ~12,000 MW new solar (150% increase)
• Planned addition of ~4,500 MW new battery storage
• Introduction of small modular nuclear reactors from mid-2030s
• Residential rates 14% below the national average
• Completion of 123 new transmission projects in H1 2024
• Proposal for over 1,000 MW of new solar projects in Virginia

Negative

• Projected 5.5% annual growth in power demand for the next decade, potentially increasing costs
• 20% of incremental power generation will come from natural gas, which is not carbon-free

Insights

Energy Industry Analyst

This IRP filing by Dominion Energy Virginia represents a significant shift in the company's long-term strategy, with a strong focus on clean energy sources. The plan to add ~3,400 MW of new offshore wind, ~12,000 MW of new solar and ~4,500 MW of new battery storage over the next 15 years is particularly noteworthy. These additions, coupled with the existing 2,600 MW CVOW project, position Dominion as a leader in renewable energy deployment.

The projected 5.5% annual growth in power demand for the next decade is exceptionally high, potentially driving significant revenue growth for Dominion. However, this rapid expansion will require substantial capital investments, which could impact the company's financial metrics in the short term.

The inclusion of small modular nuclear reactors in the mid-2030s is an interesting long-term bet on emerging technology. While this diversifies the company's carbon-free portfolio, it also carries technological and regulatory risks that investors should monitor closely.

Overall, this comprehensive plan aligns well with the broader energy transition trends and could position Dominion favorably in the evolving regulatory landscape. However, the execution of such an ambitious plan will be important to watch, particularly in terms of cost management and timely project delivery.

Financial Analyst

Dominion Energy's ambitious IRP presents both opportunities and challenges from a financial perspective. The planned investments in renewable energy and grid infrastructure are likely to drive significant capital expenditures over the coming years. While this could pressure near-term free cash flow and potentially impact dividend growth, it also sets the stage for long-term regulated asset base expansion and earnings growth.

The projected doubling of power demand by 2039 is a key driver for this plan and could translate into substantial revenue growth. However, investors should carefully monitor the accuracy of these demand projections, as overbuilding capacity could lead to stranded assets and regulatory challenges.

With residential rates currently 14% below the national average, Dominion has some headroom for rate increases to support these investments. However, maintaining affordability while funding this expansion will be a delicate balance.

The company's focus on a diverse energy mix, including natural gas as backup, helps mitigate some risks associated with renewable intermittency. This balanced approach could be viewed favorably by regulators and potentially support favorable rate case outcomes.

Investors should closely watch for updates on project costs, regulatory approvals and any shifts in energy policy that could impact the execution of this plan.

• "All-of-the-above" approach includes more power generation from every source, historic grid upgrades and energy efficiency programs to maintain grid reliability while meeting unprecedented growth in power demand
• Nearly 80% of incremental power generation in the plan is carbon-free, including more solar, more storage, more offshore wind, and more nuclear resources

RICHMOND, Va., Oct. 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- In its 2024 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) filed today with the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) and the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC), Dominion Energy Virginia laid out multiple portfolio options to meet rising power demand through significant investments in new power generation from every source, expansion and modernization of the power grid, energy storage, and energy efficiency programs. Each portfolio was developed to meet the growing needs of the company's customers.

The IRP is not a request to build any specific project, but rather a long-term planning document based on a snapshot in time of current technology, market information and load projections. The plan demonstrates the company's commitment to reliable, affordable and increasingly clean electricity. Nearly 80% of the plan's incremental power generation over the next 15 years is carbon-free, including:

• ~3,400 megawatts (MW) of new offshore wind in addition to the 2,600-MW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project currently under development off the coast of Virginia Beach. CVOW is the largest offshore wind project under development in the U.S. and remains on-time and on-budget.
• ~12,000 MW of new solar, a more than 150% increase to the 4,750 MW of solar the company currently has in operation or under development.
• ~4,500 MW of new battery storage.
• Small modular nuclear reactors beginning in the mid-2030s.

About 20% of the plan's incremental power generation will come from natural gas, which is a critically important source of reliable backup power to ensure the lights stay on when the company's growing wind and solar fleet are not producing electricity.

The IRP is based on a forecast developed by PJM, which projects that power demand will continue growing at unprecedented levels in the coming decades. Power demand within the company's delivery zone is forecasted to grow 5.5% annually for the next decade and to double by 2039.

"We are experiencing the largest growth in power demand since the years following World War II," said Ed Baine, President of Dominion Energy Virginia. "No single energy source, grid solution or energy efficiency program will reliably serve the growing needs of our customers. We need an "all-of-the-above" approach, and we are developing innovative solutions to ensure we deliver for our customers. I am proud of the affordability we deliver, with residential rates 14% below the national average, and as shown in the plan we intend to continue that focus. Our comprehensive plan ensures we can always deliver reliable, affordable and increasingly clean energy – day or night, rain or shine, winter or summer."

Underscoring the company's commitment to increasingly clean energy, in a separate filing with the SCC today, Dominion Energy proposed more than 1,000 MW of new solar projects in Virginia. If the proposed projects are approved, the company's solar fleet in operation or under development – which is currently the second largest among utilities in the U.S. – will surpass 5,750 MW in Virginia. That is enough to power more than 1.4 million homes at peak output.

At the same time, the company is also making historic investments to expand the transmission grid. In the first half of 2024, Dominion Energy completed 123 new transmission projects, including nearly 90 miles of new and rebuilt transmission lines and 13 new substations. Just last month, the company jointly proposed several new large transmission projects with First Energy and American Electric Power to strengthen electric reliability across the 13-state PJM region over the next decade. These projects will also support further integration of the significant renewables included in the IRP.

The company is also making significant investments in the distribution grid to reduce storm-related outages and shorten power restoration times. Over the last several years, Dominion Energy has buried more than 2,000 miles of overhead distribution lines in outage-prone areas as part of its Strategic Underground Program, with several thousand more miles planned over the next decade. Since 2019, the company has hardened over 265 miles of main distribution lines by replacing older poles with taller, stronger ones that are rooted deeper in the ground to reduce storm damage. The company plans to harden 1,000 miles of main lines by 2030.

About Dominion Energy

Dominion Energy (NYSE: D), headquartered in Richmond, Va., provides regulated electricity service to 3.6 million homes and businesses in Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, and regulated natural gas service to 400,000 customers in South Carolina. The company is one of the nation's leading developers and operators of regulated offshore wind and solar power and the largest producer of carbon-free electricity in New England. The company's mission is to provide the reliable, affordable, and increasingly clean energy that powers its customers every day. Please visit DominionEnergy.com to learn more.

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SOURCE Dominion Energy

FAQ

What is Dominion Energy Virginia's plan for meeting future power demand?

Dominion Energy Virginia's 2024 Integrated Resource Plan outlines an 'all-of-the-above' approach, including significant investments in new power generation from various sources, grid expansion and modernization, energy storage, and energy efficiency programs to meet rising power demand.

How much of Dominion Energy's (D) planned incremental power generation will be carbon-free?

Nearly 80% of Dominion Energy's planned incremental power generation over the next 15 years will be carbon-free, including new offshore wind, solar, battery storage, and small modular nuclear reactors.

What are the key renewable energy additions in Dominion Energy's (D) 2024 IRP?

The key renewable energy additions in Dominion Energy's 2024 IRP include approximately 3,400 MW of new offshore wind, 12,000 MW of new solar (a 150% increase), and 4,500 MW of new battery storage.

How does Dominion Energy (D) plan to address grid reliability and modernization?

Dominion Energy plans to address grid reliability and modernization through significant investments in transmission and distribution grid improvements, including completing 123 new transmission projects in the first half of 2024 and hardening distribution lines to reduce storm-related outages.