DeFi Development Corp. Publishes New Valuation Framework, Sets $10,000 SOL Price Target

Rhea-AI Summary

DeFi Development Corp (Nasdaq: DFDV) published a new valuation framework, the DFDV model, and set a $10,000 SOL price target on Feb 23, 2026. The model treats Solana as a “digital city,” argues conventional tools fail for Layer 1 tokens, and provides an open spreadsheet with sensitivity analysis.

The research claims roughly 90% of SOL supply is structurally committed (staking, DeFi, institutional, app reserves) and projects four demand sources: RWA collateral, stablecoin reserves, agentic AI, and consumer/network activity.

Positive

• DFDV publishes an open SOL valuation model with downloadable spreadsheet
• Research cites ~90% of SOL supply as structurally committed

Negative

• None.

Key Figures

SOL price target: $10,000 Structurally committed supply: 90% of SOL Structurally committed categories: 4 categories +5 more

8 metrics

SOL price target $10,000 Valuation target for SOL in new DFDV framework

Structurally committed supply 90% of SOL Share of SOL supply that "never hits the open market"

Structurally committed categories 4 categories Staking, DeFi, institutional, app reserves in supply analysis

SOL demand sources 4 sources RWA collateral, stablecoins, agentic AI, consumer activity

June 2026 SPS guidance 0.085 SPS Updated June 2026 SOL per Share guidance

Prior June 2026 SPS 0.1650 SPS Previous June 2026 SOL per Share guidance

Long-term SPS target 1.0 SPS SOL per Share target by Dec 2028

SOL treasury 2.22 million SOL Reported in January 2026 recap

Market Reality Check

Price: $3.56 Vol: Volume 528,244 is 0.4x th...

low vol

$3.56 Last Close

Volume Volume 528,244 is 0.4x the 20-day average of 1,329,791, indicating lighter trading ahead of this release. low

Technical Shares at $3.72 are trading below the 200-day MA of $12.88 and sit 92.41% under the 52-week high of $48.9818.

Peers on Argus

DFDV was down 2.23% while momentum scanners flagged only RXT in peers, up 16.67%...

1 Up

DFDV was down 2.23% while momentum scanners flagged only RXT in peers, up 16.67% with no news, suggesting today’s setup looked stock-specific rather than part of a broad sector move.

Previous Crypto Reports

5 past events · Latest: Feb 17 (Negative)

Same Type Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Feb 17	SPS guidance update	Negative	-2.3%	Cut June 2026 SPS guidance while reaffirming long‑term 2028 SPS target.
Feb 05	Treasury and DeFi recap	Positive	-25.1%	Detailed 2.22M SOL treasury, new DeFi integrations, and UK credit facility.
Feb 05	dfdvSOL collateral listing	Positive	-25.1%	dfdvSOL accepted as collateral on Jupiter Lend with high leverage terms.
Feb 04	January recap AMA	Neutral	-11.7%	Announced X Spaces recap and AMA with no material nonpublic info expected.
Jan 28	DFDV UK X Spaces	Neutral	-3.3%	Planned X Spaces on DFDV UK progress and next steps with no MNPI.

Pattern Detected

Crypto‑tagged updates have tended to coincide with negative next‑day moves, even when the underlying announcements were operationally positive.

Recent Company History

Over the past month, DFDV has issued a series of crypto-focused updates, including UK and Solana DeFi expansion, warrant distribution details, and treasury growth. Notably, the company reported a 2.22 million SOL treasury and set SPS targets such as 1.0 SPS by Dec 2028, while revising June 2026 SPS guidance from 0.1650 to 0.085. Despite these developments, the stock saw negative reactions after each crypto-tagged event, framing today’s SOL valuation framework within a pattern of market skepticism toward such announcements.

Historical Comparison

-13.5% avg move · Crypto-tagged releases have averaged a -13.51% move over five prior events, suggesting the market ha...

crypto

-13.5%

Average Historical Move crypto

Crypto-tagged releases have averaged a -13.51% move over five prior events, suggesting the market has historically treated DFDV’s Solana-focused updates with caution.

Crypto-tagged news has traced a path from community AMAs and UK updates to detailed Solana treasury growth, DeFi integrations, and SPS guidance refinements.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement introduces a new DFDV valuation framework for Solana, including a $10,000 SOL targ...

Analysis

This announcement introduces a new DFDV valuation framework for Solana, including a $10,000 SOL target and a focus on structurally scarce supply, where about 90% of SOL is described as effectively off-market. It follows prior crypto-tagged updates on SPS guidance, a 2.22 million SOL treasury, and DeFi integrations, which drew cautious market reactions. Investors may watch how future SPS metrics, treasury growth, and Solana network usage track against the model’s assumptions.

Key Terms

layer 1 tokens, dcf, monetary equation of exchange, defi, +4 more

8 terms

layer 1 tokens technical

"applied to Layer 1 tokens like SOL."

Layer 1 tokens are the native digital coins that run and secure a base blockchain — the underlying ledger where transactions and programs are recorded. They matter to investors because their value is tied to how much people use and trust that blockchain: tokens pay transaction fees, reward network participants, and often enable governance, so think of them like both the fuel and a stock in the platform — the more the network is used, the more demand (and volatility) the token may see.

dcf financial

"departs from traditional revenue multiples, DCFs, and the monetary equation"

A discounted cash flow (DCF) is a method for estimating what an investment or company is worth today by projecting the money it will generate in the future and then reducing those future amounts to their present value. It matters to investors because it translates expected future earnings into a single current price—like calculating how much you would pay today for a fruit tree based on the value of its future harvests—helping decide if a stock is cheap or expensive.

monetary equation of exchange financial

"and the monetary equation of exchange."

The monetary equation of exchange is a simple accounting identity that links the amount of money circulating in an economy, how often that money changes hands, and the total value of goods and services bought — often summarized as Money × Velocity = Price × Transactions. Think of money as water in pipes: how much water and how fast it flows determine how high prices rise. Investors use it to gauge inflation pressure and how changes in money supply or spending patterns may affect asset values and returns.

defi financial

"structurally committed SOL (staking, DeFi, institutional, app reserves)"

DeFi, short for decentralized finance, is a system of financial services built on blockchain technology that operates without traditional banks or intermediaries. It allows people to borrow, lend, trade, and earn interest directly with each other through digital platforms, much like using a peer-to-peer marketplace. For investors, DeFi offers the potential for greater access, transparency, and control over their financial activities.

stablecoin financial

"Four sources of demand: RWA settlement collateral, stablecoin reserves, agentic AI"

A stablecoin is a type of digital currency designed to keep its value steady, often by being backed by traditional assets like money or commodities. For investors, stablecoins offer a reliable way to move money quickly across digital platforms without the value fluctuations common with other cryptocurrencies, making them useful for saving, trading, or transferring funds with less risk of sudden losses.

agentic ai technical

"Four sources of demand: RWA settlement collateral, stablecoin reserves, agentic AI"

Agentic AI refers to computer systems that can make their own decisions and take actions without needing someone to tell them what to do each time. It's like giving a robot a degree of independence to solve problems or achieve goals on its own, which matters because it could change how we work and interact with technology in everyday life.

sensitivity analysis financial

"Full sensitivity analysis: transparent assumptions, stress-testable inputs"

Sensitivity analysis is a method used to see how different changes in one or more assumptions or inputs can affect the outcome of a decision or estimate. It helps investors understand which factors are most influential and how small changes could impact financial results, much like testing how different weather conditions might affect the outcome of a planned outdoor event. This process provides insight into potential risks and helps in making more informed choices.

collateral financial

"RWA settlement collateral, stablecoin reserves, agentic AI"

Collateral is an asset a borrower pledges to a lender as security for a loan; if the borrower fails to repay, the lender can take the asset to recover losses. For investors, collateral matters because it reduces lender risk, influences interest rates and loan terms, and determines who gets paid first if a company faces financial trouble—think of it like a pawned item that gives the lender extra protection.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

BOCA RATON, FL, Feb. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) (the “Company”), the first public company with a treasury strategy built to accumulate and compound Solana (“SOL”), today announced the publication of its latest research piece, "SOL and the Digital City: A New Way to Value Layer 1 Tokens," introducing a valuation framework for SOL that departs from traditional revenue multiples, DCFs, and the monetary equation of exchange.

The essay argues that conventional valuation tools, built for equities, currencies, and commodities, break in important ways when applied to Layer 1 tokens like SOL. In their place, the Company introduces the DFDV model (Demand-Float Derived Valuation), which treats Solana as a growing digital city where price is set by the imbalance between structurally scarce supply and the exogenous dollar demand required to operate within the network.

The research covers:

• Why existing frameworks fall short: how DCFs, revenue multiples, and MV=PQ each fail to capture what actually drives SOL's value, and why a new approach is needed.
• Supply side analysis: a breakdown of the four categories of structurally committed SOL (staking, DeFi, institutional, app reserves) and why roughly 90% of supply never hits the open market.
• Four sources of demand: RWA settlement collateral, stablecoin reserves, agentic AI, and consumer/network-native activity, each grounded in observable data and projected forward to maturity.
• Full sensitivity analysis: transparent assumptions, stress-testable inputs, and an open spreadsheet for investors to plug in their own numbers.

Read the blog: https://defidevcorp.beehiiv.com/p/sol-and-the-digital-city

The accompanying DFDV Valuation Model spreadsheet is available for download at www.defidevcorp.com/SOLModel, where investors and analysts can independently evaluate and modify the framework's assumptions.

About DeFi Development Corp.
DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) has adopted a treasury policy under which the principal holding in its treasury reserve is allocated to SOL. Through this strategy, the Company provides investors with direct economic exposure to SOL, while also actively participating in the growth of the Solana ecosystem. In addition to holding and staking SOL, DeFi Development Corp. operates its own validator infrastructure, generating staking rewards and fees from delegated stake. The Company is also engaged across decentralized finance (“DeFi”) opportunities and continues to explore innovative ways to support and benefit from Solana’s expanding application layer.

The Company is an AI-powered online platform that connects the commercial real estate industry by providing data and software subscriptions, as well as value-add services, to multifamily and commercial property professionals, as the Company connects the increasingly complex ecosystem that stakeholders have to manage.

The Company currently serves more than one million web users annually, including multifamily and commercial property owners and developers applying for billions of dollars of debt financing per year, professional service providers, and thousands of multifamily and commercial property lenders, including more than 10% of the banks in America, credit unions, real estate investment trusts (“REITs”), debt funds, Fannie Mae® and Freddie Mac® multifamily lenders, FHA multifamily lenders, commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”) lenders, Small Business Administration (“SBA”) lenders, and more. The Company’s data and software offerings are generally offered on a subscription basis as software as a service (“SaaS”).

Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as: "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "believe," "project," "estimate," "expect," strategy," "future," "likely," "may,", "should," "will" and similar references to future periods. Forward-looking statements are neither historical facts nor assurances of future performance. Instead, they are based only on our current beliefs, expectations and assumptions regarding the future of our business, future plans and strategies, projections, anticipated events and trends, the economy and other future conditions. Because forward-looking statements relate to the future, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and many of which are outside of our control. Our actual results and financial condition may differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Therefore, you should not rely on any of these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause our actual results and financial condition to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements include, among others, the following: (i) fluctuations in the market price of SOL and any associated impairment charges that the Company may incur as a result of a decrease in the market price of SOL below the value at which the Company’s SOL are carried on its balance sheet; (ii) the effect of and uncertainties related to the ongoing volatility in interest rates; (iii) our ability to achieve and maintain profitability in the future; (iv) the impact on our business of the regulatory environment and complexities with compliance related to such environment including changes in securities laws or other laws or regulations; (v) changes in the accounting treatment relating to the Company’s SOL holdings; (vi) our ability to respond to general economic conditions; (vii) our ability to manage our growth effectively and our expectations regarding the development and expansion of our business; (viii) our ability to access sources of capital, including debt financing and other sources of capital to finance operations and growth and (ix) other risks and uncertainties more fully in the section captioned "Risk Factors" in the Company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and other reports we file with the SEC. As a result of these matters, changes in facts, assumptions not being realized or other circumstances, the Company's actual results may differ materially from the expected results discussed in the forward-looking statements contained in this press release. Forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are made as of this date, and the Company undertakes no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law.

Investor Contact:
ir@defidevcorp.com

Media Contact:
press@defidevcorp.com

FAQ

What price target did DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) set for SOL on Feb 23, 2026?

The company set a $10,000 SOL price target on Feb 23, 2026. According to the company, this target arises from the DFDV model treating Solana as a growing digital city and balancing scarce supply with dollar demand.

What is the DFDV valuation model introduced by DeFi Development Corp (DFDV)?

The DFDV model is a demand-float derived valuation framework for SOL. According to the company, it replaces DCFs and revenue multiples with a supply scarcity and exogenous dollar-demand approach plus sensitivity analysis and an open spreadsheet.

How much of SOL supply does DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) say is committed and off-market?

DeFi Development Corp estimates roughly 90% of SOL supply is structurally committed and rarely reaches open market. According to the company, categories include staking, DeFi, institutional, and app reserves.

What demand sources drive the DFDV model's SOL valuation for DFDV?

The model identifies four demand sources: RWA settlement collateral, stablecoin reserves, agentic AI, and consumer/network-native activity. According to the company, each source is grounded in observable data and projected to maturity.

Where can investors download the DFDV SOL valuation spreadsheet from DeFi Development Corp (DFDV)?

Investors can download the accompanying DFDV Valuation Model spreadsheet from the company's website at www.defidevcorp.com/SOLModel. According to the company, the spreadsheet allows independent evaluation and adjustable assumptions.