FTI Consulting Report: An Endgame for the Epic E-Commerce Era Is Within Sight

Rhea-AI Summary

FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) released its 2025 U.S. Online Retail Report, projecting e-commerce sales to reach $1.27 trillion in 2025, an 8.5% year-over-year increase. The report indicates that e-commerce market share will hit 23.5% in 2025, up from 22.7% in 2024, but suggests a potential plateau near 30% by 2030.

The analysis reveals that total retail sales from 2020-2024 exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion, though 40% of this growth was due to inflation. Online retail sales surpassed pre-COVID projections by $932 billion. The report also highlights a shift in direct-to-customer (DTC) strategies, with brands increasingly embracing retail partnerships and omnichannel approaches to meet evolving consumer preferences.

Positive

• E-commerce sales projected to grow 8.5% to $1.27 trillion in 2025
• Online retail market share expected to increase to 23.5% in 2025 from 22.7% in 2024
• Total retail sales exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion from 2020-2024
• Online retail sales surpassed pre-COVID projections by $932 billion

Negative

• E-commerce market share growth is decelerating, expected to plateau near 30% by 2030
• 40% of retail sales growth attributed to inflation rather than real growth
• Inflation-adjusted sales growth has been marginal or negative since 2023
• Discretionary spending cooling due to tariff concerns, cautionary jobs market, and geopolitical uncertainty

WASHINGTON, July 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: FCN) today announced the release of its 2025 U.S. Online Retail Report which projects e-commerce sales will hit $1.27 trillion in 2025, an 8.5% increase over last year. Despite the positive projection, the report found that online retail market share may be approaching a ceiling by the end of the decade, as consumers look for e-commerce to be increasingly integrated with all their retail experiences.

The firm’s Retail & Consumer Products practice, which conducted the analysis for the report, expects e-commerce will account for 23.5% of U.S. retail market share in 2025, up slightly from 22.7% in 2024 and 21.6% in 2023, while the online channel’s share gains are expected to decelerate further and approach a plateau near 30% by 2030.

Taking a closer look, total retail sales from 2020-2024 rose a combined $2.4 trillion above pre-COVID expectations, but that number may be misleading, with 40% of that growth attributable to inflation. Similarly, online retail sales from 2020-2024 were $932 billion above pre-COVID expectations, as the “pull forward” effect during the COVID period altered shopping patterns and accelerated share gains for the online channel that have since slowed notably.

“While consumers have continued to increase their spending, inflation-adjusted sales growth has been marginal or negative since 2023 as the retail sector struggles to generate real sales growth,” said Jeff Wray, a Senior Managing Director, and U.S. Leader of FTI Consulting’s Retail & Consumer Products industry and Business Transformation practices. “While inflation is trending lower, discretionary spending is cooling amid tariff concerns, a cautionary jobs market and geopolitical uncertainty. These dynamics are weighing on consumers’ minds, and prospects for their spending appetite in the second half of the year are subdued.”

The report also highlights how brands are adapting, evolving and embracing retail partnerships that they once sought to avoid. Shoppers’ excitement around events like Amazon’s Prime Day, and the revenue boost it brings to retailers, is evidence that the old direct-to-customer (“DTC”) models aren’t enough on their own anymore.

“This evolution marks a critical moment for online retail. It’s no longer just about who owns the customer relationship; it’s about who can deliver value across every channel the consumer chooses to shop,” said, Michael Eisenband, Global Leader of FTI Consulting’s Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment. “The DTC revolution isn’t over. It’s simply evolved. The next wave of winners will be those who invest wisely, scale intentionally and build capabilities that connect the dots across every consumer touchpoint — from livestream to doorstep, and everything in between.”

For more information, read the full report here.

About FTI Consulting  
FTI Consulting, Inc. is a leading global expert firm for organizations facing crisis and transformation, with more than 8,100 employees located in 33 countries and territories as of March 31, 2025. In certain jurisdictions, FTI Consulting’s services are provided through distinct legal entities that are separately capitalized and independently managed. The Company generated $3.70 billion in revenues during fiscal year 2024. More information can be found at www.fticonsulting.com.

FTI Consulting, Inc.
555 12^th Street NW
Washington, DC 20004
+1.202.312.9100

Investor Contact:
Mollie Hawkes
+1.617.747.1791
mollie.hawkes@fticonsulting.com

Media Contact:
Nick Emmons
+1.617.510.1676
nick.emmons@fticonsulting.com

FAQ

What is FTI Consulting's (FCN) e-commerce sales projection for 2025?

FTI Consulting projects U.S. e-commerce sales to reach $1.27 trillion in 2025, representing an 8.5% increase from the previous year.

What is the expected e-commerce market share in 2025 according to FCN's report?

According to the report, e-commerce will account for 23.5% of U.S. retail market share in 2025, up from 22.7% in 2024.

How much did retail sales exceed pre-COVID expectations from 2020-2024?

Total retail sales exceeded pre-COVID expectations by $2.4 trillion, though 40% of this growth was attributed to inflation.

What is FCN's forecast for e-commerce market share by 2030?

FTI Consulting expects e-commerce market share to approach a plateau near 30% by 2030, indicating a deceleration in growth.

How are direct-to-customer (DTC) business models evolving according to FCN's report?

The report indicates that traditional DTC models are evolving, with brands increasingly embracing retail partnerships and omnichannel approaches to meet consumer preferences.