Expert Panel Expects Moderating Home Price Growth through 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

A panel of over 100 housing experts surveyed in Fannie Mae's Q2 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey projects a moderation in home price growth, forecasting 2.9% growth in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, down from 5.3% in 2024. These estimates represent downward revisions from the previous quarter's expectations of 3.4% and 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The survey, conducted in partnership with Pulsenomics LLC, also assessed experts' expectations regarding home price performance in the 20 largest metro areas and the likelihood of negative year-over-year price growth through 2026.

Positive

• Housing market remains in growth territory with projected increases of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026
• Survey includes comprehensive analysis from over 100 housing experts

Negative

• Home price growth forecasts revised downward from previous quarter's expectations
• Growth rate showing significant slowdown from 5.3% in 2024 to 2.8% by 2026

News Market Reaction – FNMA

-2.50%

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-2.50% News Effect

On the day this news was published, FNMA declined 2.50%, reflecting a moderate negative market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

WASHINGTON, June 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Following national home price growth of 5.3% in 2024, a panel of more than 100 housing experts forecasts home price growth to average 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, according to the Q2 2025 Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC. The panel's latest estimates of national home price growth represent revisions from last quarter's expectations of 3.4% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI). As part of this quarter's survey, panelists were also asked whether they expect home price growth in the 20 largest metro-area housing markets will underperform or overperform the national average in the next 12 months, as well as the probability that national year-over-year home price growth will turn negative at any point through the end of 2026.

The full HPES data sets and special topic research can be found here.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group, Pulsenomics, LLC, and the surveyed experts included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

About Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey
Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC, polls more than 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, with the Fannie Mae Home Price Index as the benchmark. On a quarterly basis, Fannie Mae plans to publish the latest panelist-level expectations. The Q2 2025 HPES had 107 respondents and was conducted by Pulsenomics, LLC, between May 8, 2025, and May 20, 2025.

About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lenders to inform forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.

About Pulsenomics
Pulsenomics^® is an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. To learn more, visit pulsenomics.com.

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SOURCE Fannie Mae

FAQ

What is Fannie Mae's home price growth forecast for 2025?

According to Fannie Mae's expert panel survey, home price growth is forecast to average 2.9% in 2025.

How much did home prices grow in 2024 according to Fannie Mae?

According to the survey, national home price growth was 5.3% in 2024.

What is the projected home price growth for 2026?

The expert panel forecasts home price growth of 2.8% for 2026, revised down from a previous estimate of 3.3%.

How have Fannie Mae's home price growth projections changed from the previous quarter?

The projections were revised downward, from 3.4% to 2.9% for 2025 and from 3.3% to 2.8% for 2026.

What is the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES)?

The HPES is a quarterly survey produced by Fannie Mae in partnership with Pulsenomics LLC, gathering forecasts from over 100 housing experts on expected home price trends.