Mortgage Rates Expected to Move Below 6 Percent by End of 2026
Rhea-AI Summary
Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) has released its September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, projecting significant mortgage rate declines through 2026. The forecast indicates rates will decrease to 6.4% by end of 2025 and further drop to 5.9% by end of 2026.
The report anticipates total home sales of 4.72 million in 2025 and 5.16 million in 2026. Single-family mortgage originations are expected to reach $1.85 trillion in 2025 and $2.32 trillion in 2026. The refinance share is projected to increase from 26% in 2025 to 35% in 2026, driven by lower mortgage rates.
Positive
- Projected decline in mortgage rates to 5.9% by end of 2026
- Expected increase in home sales from 4.72M in 2025 to 5.16M in 2026
- Forecasted growth in mortgage originations from $1.85T to $2.32T
- Anticipated rise in refinance share from 26% to 35%
Negative
- None.
News Market Reaction 1 Alert
On the day this news was published, FNMA gained 5.24%, reflecting a notable positive market reaction.
Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.
Visit Fannie Mae's Data and Insights page to read the full September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast. To receive email updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumers and mortgage lenders to inform forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
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SOURCE Fannie Mae
FAQ
What are Fannie Mae's mortgage rate predictions for 2025-2026?
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How much mortgage origination volume does Fannie Mae expect in 2025-2026?
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