Global Blue Releases the Monthly Tax Free Shopping Business Update for March 2024

Rhea-AI Summary

Global Blue reports a robust recovery in Tax Free Shopping worldwide, with significant growth in Continental Europe and Asia Pacific. Key highlights include a 145% recovery in March 2024 compared to 2019, strong performance in France, Spain, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, and a year-on-year growth rate of +33%.

Market Research Analyst

The recent data from Global Blue indicating a robust recovery in Tax Free Shopping, particularly in Continental Europe and the Asia Pacific region, suggests a positive trend for the retail and luxury goods sectors. The recovery rates exceeding 2019 levels imply a resurgence in consumer confidence and spending power, especially among tourists. This could signal an uptick in discretionary spending, which often translates into increased sales for companies operating in these regions.

For investors, the impressive recovery rates in France, Spain and Italy may point to attractive opportunities within the European market. Additionally, the substantial growth in Tax Free Shopping among US and Asian shoppers, notably from Hong Kong and Taiwan, underscores the importance of these consumer segments for retailers and luxury brands. The Asia Pacific region's record recovery rate, spearheaded by Japan and South Korea, indicates a strong rebound in consumer activity, which could have a cascading effect on related industries such as hospitality and transportation.

However, it's essential to monitor the performance of German markets, which showed a comparatively lower recovery rate and the impact of cultural events like Ramadan on GCC shopper recovery. These factors could introduce volatility in certain markets and affect retail performance. Understanding these dynamics is important for businesses to tailor their strategies and for investors to make informed decisions regarding sector-specific stocks.

Economist

The data suggesting a dynamic recovery in Tax Free Shopping has broader economic implications. A 145% recovery rate compared to 2019 indicates not only a rebound from the pandemic but also an expansion beyond pre-pandemic levels. This expansion is likely driven by accumulated savings during lockdown periods, pent-up demand and a shift in consumer preferences towards physical retail experiences post-pandemic.

From an economic standpoint, this recovery could contribute to employment growth in the retail sector and support the overall economic recovery in regions where Tax Free Shopping is a significant economic activity. The strong performance in international shopping could also impact currency exchange rates, as increased spending by tourists often requires them to exchange their home currency for the local currency, potentially strengthening the latter.

However, the uneven recovery across different regions and the varying impact of cultural events such as Ramadan highlight the need for a nuanced understanding of consumer behavior. Economies heavily reliant on tourist spending from specific regions may face uncertainties and businesses should remain agile to adapt to these changing patterns.

Financial Analyst

The reported surge in Tax Free Shopping, particularly the year-on-year growth rates, may have significant implications for the stock market, especially for companies within the retail, luxury goods and consumer discretionary sectors. A 33% worldwide year-on-year performance increase is a strong indicator of sector health and could lead to upward revisions in earnings forecasts for companies benefiting from this trend.

Investors might find the detailed breakdown of recovery rates by nationality particularly insightful, as it highlights which consumer markets are driving growth. The standout growth of Mainland Chinese shoppers, with a 43% increase, signals China's vital role in the global consumer market. Companies with a strong foothold in the Chinese market or those that have successfully tapped into the tourist spending of Chinese consumers could see their valuations rise.

While the overall trend is positive, it's important to consider the potential risks associated with geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations and the sustainability of this spending trend. Investors should also be aware of the potential for overvaluation in stocks that have already priced in this recovery and seek opportunities in undervalued stocks that may benefit from the continued growth in Tax Free Shopping.

• Fresh data from Global Blue reveals that the global dynamic recovery for Tax Free Shopping remains strong across Continental Europe and continues to accelerate across Asia Pacific.

• Globally, issued Sales in Store like-for-like recovery reached 145%¹ in March 2024 compared to the same period in 2019, vs. 138%¹ in January/February 2024.

SIGNY, Switzerland--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- A steady worldwide recovery, compared to 2019 levels

In Continental Europe, March 2024 recovery is slightly ahead of January/February 2024 recovery, reaching 130%¹ in March vs. 128%¹ in January/February, driven by a strong recovery in France (160%¹), Spain (152%¹) and Italy (135%¹).

Regarding origin markets, US shopper recovery accelerated, reaching 313%¹ in March vs. 301%¹ in January/February. GCC shopper recovery was negatively impacted by the shift of the beginning of Ramadan², reaching 184%¹ in March vs. 329%¹ in January/February.

In Asia Pacific, the recovery rate reached a record level at 181%¹ in March vs. 159%¹ in January/February, driven by a strong performance in Japan (235%¹) and South Korea (127%¹), and an acceleration in Singapore to 111%¹ vs. 84%¹ in January/February.

In terms of origin markets, travelers from Hong Kong and Taiwan continue to drive the recovery, reaching 560%¹ in March vs. 474%¹ in January/February. Following behind are North East Asia travelers, with a recovery rate of 320%¹ in March vs. 271%¹ in January/February.

In terms of Mainland Chinese shoppers, the worldwide issued Sales in Store like-for-like recovery reached 101%¹ in March vs. 101%¹ in January/February. Within Continental Europe, Mainland Chinese shopper recovery reached 70%¹ in March, vs 75%¹ in January/February. In Asia Pacific, Mainland Chinese shopper recovery remains strong, reaching 127%¹ in March vs. 124%¹ in January/February.

A strong year-on-year performance for international shopping

When analyzing the year-on-year variation in Tax Free Shopping growth, the worldwide Issue Sales like-for-like year-on-year performance reached +33% in March 2024 vs. last year.

The issued Sales in Store in Continental Europe grew by +9%³ in March 2024 vs. last year, and 13% restated from the 11-day shift of Ramadan vs. last year².

Regarding origin markets, the growth was positively influenced by most nationalities, with Mainland Chinese shoppers leading the way with a +43%³ growth rate in March 2024. Influenced by the 11-day shift of Ramadan vs. last year[4], GCC shopper growth was negatively impacted with a -30%³ growth rate, while US shoppers’ Tax Free Spend reached +11%³.

In Asia Pacific, the growth rate continues to remain high, reaching +102%³ in March 2024 vs. last year. All nationalities contributed positively, with Mainland Chinese shoppers leading the way at +223%³ in March 2024 vs. 2023, North East shoppers at +129%³ and Hong Kong and Taiwan shoppers at +55%³.

APPENDIX

Worldwide recovery rate (versus 2019) rate

Issued SIS L/L recovery1 (in % of 2019)	% Tax Free Spend (2019)	March 2024	February 2024	January 2024	Q4 2023	Q3 2023
France	22%	160%	174%	164%	140%	138%
Italy	24%	135%	131%	111%	123%	126%
Spain	14%	152%	134%	153%	133%	127%
Germany	13%	69%	71%	70%	74%	70%
Other countries	27%	121%	127%	121%	111%	119%
Total Continental Europe	100%	130%	132%	125%	118%	119%
Japan	54%	235%	229%	232%	225%	185%
Singapore	42%	111%	84%	85%	75%	84%
South Korea	4%	127%	118%	131%	111%	116%
Total Asia Pacific	100%	181%	159%	161%	150%	134%
Total worldwide	100%	145%	141%	135%	127%	123%

Worldwide Year-on-Year Growth Rate (2024 vs. 2023)

Issued SIS L/L Year-on-Year Growth3	March 2024	February 2024	January 2024	CY (2023)
France	+3%	+21%	+11%	26%
Italy	+20%	+44%	+26%	25%
Spain	+18%	+52%	+31%	15%
Germany	-10%	+9%	+20%	8%
Other countries	+9%	+30%	+8%	26%
Total Continental Europe	+9%	+32%	+17%	100%
Japan	+146%	+170%	+100%	65%
Singapore	+24%	+36%	+15%	27%
South Korea	+96%	+138%	+108%	8%
Total Asia Pacific	+102%	+120%	+71%	100%
Total worldwide	+33%	57%	+34%	100%

GLOSSARY

- Gulf Cooperation Council countries include: Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman
- South East Asia includes: Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore
- North East Asia includes: Japan, South Korea

ABOUT GLOBAL BLUE

Global Blue is the business partner for the shopping journey, providing technology and services to enhance the experience and drive performance.

With over 40 years of expertise, today we connect thousands of retailers, acquirers, and hotels with nearly 80 million consumers across 53 countries, in three industries: Tax Free Shopping, Payments and Post-Purchase solutions.

With over 2,000 employees, Global Blue generated €20bn Sales in Store and €311M revenue in FY 2022/23. Global Blue is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

For more information, please visit www.globalblue.com

Global Blue Monthly Intelligence Briefing, March 2024, Source: Global Blue

¹ Recovery rate is equal to 2024 Issued Sales in Store divided by 2019 Issued Sales in Store, like-for-like (i.e.: at constant merchant scope and exchange rates).

² Ramadan took place from March 10 to April 9 in 2024; while it took place from May 5 to June 3in 2019.

³ Growth rate variation year-on-year (2024 vs. the same period in 2023)

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240411918276/en/

MEDIA

Virginie Alem – SVP Marketing & Communications

Mail: valem@globalblue.com

INVESTOR RELATIONS

Frances Gibbons – Head of Investor Relations

Mob: +44 (0)7815 034 212

Mail: fgibbons@globalblue.com

Source: Global Blue

FAQ

What is the global dynamic recovery rate for Tax Free Shopping in March 2024 compared to 2019?

The global dynamic recovery rate for Tax Free Shopping in March 2024 reached 145% compared to 2019.

Which countries in Continental Europe showed strong recovery in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024?

France, Spain, and Italy showed strong recovery in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024, with rates of 160%, 152%, and 135% respectively.

How did US shopper recovery fare in March 2024 compared to January/February 2024?

US shopper recovery accelerated, reaching 313% in March 2024 compared to 301% in January/February 2024.

What impacted the GCC shopper recovery rate in March 2024?

The GCC shopper recovery rate in March 2024 was impacted by the shift of the beginning of Ramadan, reaching 184% compared to 329% in January/February 2024.

Which markets drove the recovery in Asia Pacific in March 2024?

Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea drove the recovery in Asia Pacific in March 2024.

What was the year-on-year growth rate in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024 compared to last year?

The year-on-year growth rate in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024 reached +33% compared to last year.

Which nationality showed the highest growth rate in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024?

Mainland Chinese shoppers showed the highest growth rate at +43% in Tax Free Shopping in March 2024.

What was the growth rate for US shoppers' Tax Free Spend in March 2024?

US shoppers' Tax Free Spend reached +11% growth rate in March 2024.