Capstone Partners Reports: Consumer M&A Market Rebound Delayed, Gradual Improvement Expected in 2026

Rhea-AI Summary

Capstone Partners released its Annual Consumer M&A Report on April 27, 2026, forecasting a gradual M&A recovery in 2026 after weak 2025 activity. Consumer deals fell 18.9% YOY in 2025 and median EV/EBITDA dropped to 9.2x, the lowest in 10 years. Large transactions (> $250M) rose to 30.6% of deals, and several discretionary sectors showed strong YOY growth, supporting expectations that larger-cap deals and renewed PE exits could kick-start a broader rebound in 2026.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

Positive

• Large deals (> $250M) comprised 30.6% of disclosed deals
• Tactical Products M&A growth of +54.3% YOY
• Outdoor Recreation M&A growth of +47.7% YOY
• Vitamins & Supplements M&A growth of +30.0% YOY
• PE add-on activity rose +29.4% MoM in December 2025
• PE platforms activity jumped +75% MoM in December 2025

Negative

• Total consumer deals declined 18.9% YOY in 2025
• Private equity dealmaking fell 22.9% YOY in 2025
• Public strategic acquisitions contracted 33.8% YOY
• Median industry EV/EBITDA 9.2x in 2025, lowest in 10 years
• 39% of U.S. PE portfolio companies held more than four years

News Market Reaction – HBAN

+0.79%

1 alert

+0.79% News Effect

On the day this news was published, HBAN gained 0.79%, reflecting a mild positive market reaction.

Data tracked by StockTitan Argus on the day of publication.

Key Figures

Consumer M&A volume 2025: -18.9% YoY Consumer M&A 2022: -9.6% YoY Consumer M&A 2023: -29.6% YoY +5 more

8 metrics

Consumer M&A volume 2025 -18.9% YoY Consumer industry deals 2025 vs 2024

Consumer M&A 2022 -9.6% YoY Consumer industry deals 2022

Consumer M&A 2023 -29.6% YoY Consumer industry deals 2023

Consumer M&A 2024 +8.6% YoY Consumer industry deals 2024

PE dealmaking 2025 -22.9% YoY Private equity consumer deals 2025

Public strategic deals 2025 -33.8% YoY Public strategic consumer acquisitions 2025

Median EV/EBITDA 9.2x Consumer M&A valuations 2025

Large deal share 30.6% Deals with enterprise value >$250M in 2025

Market Reality Check

Price: $15.92 Vol: Volume 15,551,635 vs 20‑d...

low vol

$15.92 Last Close

Volume Volume 15,551,635 vs 20‑day average 22,682,380 (about 31% lighter than usual). low

Technical Price $16.38 sits modestly below 200‑day MA of $16.81, reflecting a slightly weaker trend.

Peers on Argus

HBAN fell 2.55% with key regional bank peers also down: RF (-2.05%), CFG (-2.18%...

HBAN fell 2.55% with key regional bank peers also down: RF (-2.05%), CFG (-2.18%), FITB (-2.61%), FCNCA (-1.33%), SHG (-1.25%). However, no peers appeared in momentum scanners, suggesting the move was not flagged as a strong sector‑wide rotation.

Historical Context

5 past events · Latest: Apr 23 (Positive)

Pattern 5 events

Date	Event	Sentiment	Move	Catalyst
Apr 23	Q1 2026 earnings	Positive	+0.1%	Stronger earnings with rising loans, deposits, and net interest income.
Apr 21	Market expansion	Positive	-0.3%	Commercial banking expansion into Austin and central Texas markets.
Apr 15	Earnings call notice	Neutral	-0.6%	Scheduling announcement for Q1 2026 earnings release and conference call.
Apr 15	M&A market report	Positive	+0.5%	Capstone report showing resilient 2025 middle‑market M&A valuations.
Apr 06	Brand partnership	Positive	+0.9%	Designation as Official Consumer Bank of the University of Michigan.

Pattern Detected

Recent HBAN news has generally seen modest, often positive, price alignment, with only one clear divergence on a strategically positive expansion headline.

Recent Company History

Over the past month, HBAN has reported several notable developments. Q1 2026 earnings on Apr 23 showed higher loans, deposits, and net interest income, with only a slight positive price reaction. Geographic expansion into Austin and central Texas on Apr 21 drew a small negative move, indicating some divergence on growth headlines. Capstone’s middle‑market M&A report on Apr 15 coincided with a mild gain, while the University of Michigan banking partnership on Apr 6 produced the strongest recent upside. Today’s consumer M&A report continues that information‑driven news flow tied to Capstone’s market insights.

Market Pulse Summary

This announcement highlights Capstone’s view that Consumer M&A activity, while weak in 2025, showed ...

Analysis

This announcement highlights Capstone’s view that Consumer M&A activity, while weak in 2025, showed early signs of recovery and may gradually improve in 2026. For HBAN, which recently reported solid Q1 results and ongoing strategic initiatives, the report provides additional context on deal valuations and private equity behavior rather than a direct company catalyst. Investors may watch how overall M&A volumes, median EV/EBITDA multiples, and large‑deal activity evolve alongside HBAN’s own growth strategy.

Key Terms

enterprise value, ev/ebitda, private equity, limited partners, +1 more

5 terms

enterprise value financial

"The number of companies acquired for an enterprise value greater than $250 million"

Enterprise value is the total worth of a company, reflecting what it would cost to buy the entire business. It includes the company's market value plus any debts, minus its cash holdings, offering a comprehensive picture of its true value. Investors use it to compare companies regardless of their capital structures, helping them assess how much they would need to pay to acquire the business.

ev/ebitda financial

"bringing the median EV/EBITDA multiple down to 9.2x in 2025"

EV/EBITDA is a valuation ratio that compares a company’s total market value including debt and cash (enterprise value) to its operating cash profit before financing and accounting adjustments (EBITDA). It tells investors how many years of that operating cash profit would be needed to pay for the whole business, making it useful for comparing how cheaply or expensively different companies trade regardless of size or financing. Think of it like comparing the price of a rental property to its annual rent to judge value.

private equity financial

"A large retreat in private equity (PE) dealmaking (-22.9% YOY)"

Private equity involves investing money directly into private companies or buying out public companies to make them private, with the goal of improving their performance and increasing their value over time. For investors, it offers an opportunity to earn returns by helping companies grow or restructure, often requiring a longer-term commitment and a higher level of involvement than typical stock investments.

limited partners financial

"PE firms will need to return funds to limited partners (LPs)."

Limited partners are investors who provide most of the capital to an investment partnership but do not run its day-to-day business; they have liability only up to the amount they invested. Think of them as silent backers who hire a manager to make decisions and share in profits or losses; their importance to investors lies in shaping how much money a fund can deploy, the risk and return profile they receive, and the liquidity and fees associated with that investment.

add-on financial

"PE add-on activity climbed 29.4% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025"

An add-on is a smaller company or asset that a business buys to complement its existing operations—like adding a new room to a house to serve a specific purpose. Investors care because add-ons can boost revenue, cut costs by sharing resources, and speed growth more cheaply than building from scratch, but they also carry execution and integration risks that can affect returns.

AI-generated analysis. Not financial advice.

BOSTON, April 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Capstone Partners, a leading middle market investment banking firm, released its Annual Consumer M&A Report, which shares insights into public market valuations, the macroeconomic climate, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, and an outlook for 2026 industry activity. With extensive knowledge and transaction experience, Capstone Partners' Consumer Investment Banking Team provides unique commentary on 14 key sectors: Apparel, Footwear & Accessories; Automotive Aftermarket; Beauty; Beverage; Convenience Store & Retail Fuel; E-Commerce; Food; Home Goods; Outdoor Recreation & Enthusiasts; Pet; Restaurants; Sports Technology; Tactical Products; and Vitamins & Supplements.

Capstone believes signs of a rebound in Consumer industry M&A activity have been detected following a year of market uncertainty which dampened activity in 2025. Consumer industry deals fell 18.9% year-over-year (YOY) in 2025, a considerable drop given this contraction follows two years of declines in 2022 (-9.6% YOY) and 2023 (-29.6% YOY) and a year of only moderate growth in 2024 (+8.6% YOY). A large retreat in private equity (PE) dealmaking (-22.9% YOY) linked to market unpredictability and a lack of asset monetization served as one of the largest drivers of this decline. Moreover, a dramatic 33.8% YOY contraction in public strategic acquisitions also strained the Consumer M&A market. This weak appetite—particularly among public buyers—weighed on overall valuations, bringing the median EV/EBITDA multiple down to 9.2x in 2025, the lowest median multiple recorded since Capstone began tracking the data 10 years ago. Despite dampened consumer M&A in 2025, we have seen the initial signs of a rebounding market, due in large part to buyers getting comfortable with macroeconomic uncertainty. We see four major contributors to a positive outlook for consumer M&A in 2026.

The number of companies acquired for an enterprise value greater than $250 million significantly expanded and reached a market high in 2025, representing 30.6% of all disclosed consumer M&A deals. Large deals have been the precursor to the opening of broader M&A activity. In years marked by declining consumer M&A volume but a high share of large deals—more than 20% of disclosed deals above $250 million in enterprise value—the Consumer M&A market saw deal volume increase 19.6% on average the following year based on trends from 2016 to 2025.

In 2025, Discretionary sectors with strong M&A growth included Tactical Products (+54.3% YOY), Outdoor Recreation & Enthusiasts (+47.7% YOY), Vitamins & Supplements (+30% YOY), and E-Commerce (+12.8% YOY). Discretionary sectors are more exposed to macroeconomic swings, more sensitive to deal volume volatility and margin compression, and more difficult to underwrite during uncertainty. Because of this, investors move towards defensive non-discretionary opportunities in a strained economy. By re-entering the Discretionary vertical, acquirers and investors have indicated that downside risk feels contained, demand has bottomed or stabilized, and operating outlooks have gained credibility again.

Notably, PE add-on activity climbed 29.4% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025 while platforms jumped 75% MoM, a combined 48.3% rise in the final month of the year. As of the end of 2025, 39% of U.S. PE companies have been held for more than four years, indicating a critical junction where PE firms will need to return funds to limited partners (LPs). If exits continue at the current pace (972 in 2025), it would take more than seven years for the backlog of portfolio companies aged four years or older to clear out, according to Capstone's Q4 2025 Capital Markets Update. As a result, exits are expected to accelerate as rate cuts have materialized and LPs are demanding distributions.

"We expect the initial M&A rebound to come from larger capitalization deals as these companies often understand market complications and are well-equipped to take advantage of a changing market as buyers and sellers. Several Discretionary sectors, which are typically the first pocket of the market to see momentum return in a rebound have been recovering, suggesting a broader industry rally in 2026. Consumer industry PE investment appetite experienced an increase in the past couple of months due to a greater willingness to buy and sell existing portfolio companies despite lingering market uncertainty. With a substantial need for PE firms to monetize an aging backlog of assets and distribute returns to LPs, these factors support expectations for a gradual return to Consumer industry dealmaking in 2026," said Capstone's Head of Investment Banking Ken Wasik, the lead contributor in the report.

Also included in this report:

• How M&A volumes and public market valuations in the Consumer industry fared in 2025.
• A detailed analysis of M&A valuation drivers for consumer companies.
• What trends are driving M&A activity across the Consumer industry and a breakdown of each of the 14 highlighted sectors.
• Expectations for Consumer industry performance and M&A in North America in 2026.
• Which sectors outperformed the broader Consumer industry and are poised to garner buyer interest in 2026.

To access to full report, click here.

ABOUT CAPSTONE PARTNERS

For over 20 years, the firm has been a trusted advisor to leading middle market companies, offering a fully integrated range of investment banking and financial advisory services uniquely tailored to help owners, investors, and creditors through each stage of the company's lifecycle. Capstone's services include M&A advisory, debt and equity placement, corporate restructuring, special situations, valuation and fairness opinions and financial advisory services. Headquartered in Boston, the firm has 175+ professionals in multiple offices across the U.S. With 12 dedicated industry groups, Capstone delivers sector-specific expertise through large, cross-functional teams. Capstone is a subsidiary of Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN). For more information, visit www.capstonepartners.com.

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/capstone-partners-reports-consumer-ma-market-rebound-delayed-gradual-improvement-expected-in-2026-302752192.html

SOURCE Capstone Partners

FAQ

What did Capstone Partners report about Consumer M&A volume for 2025 (HBAN)?

Consumer M&A volume fell 18.9% YOY in 2025, reflecting weaker dealmaking across the sector. According to Capstone Partners, declines were driven by reduced PE activity and a drop in public strategic acquisitions, which weighed on overall deal counts and valuations.

How did valuations change in the 2025 Consumer M&A market (HBAN)?

Median EV/EBITDA declined to 9.2x in 2025, the lowest in a decade. According to Capstone Partners, weaker buyer appetite—especially from public strategics—and market uncertainty pushed down multiples across Consumer subsectors.

Which Consumer sectors showed the strongest M&A growth in 2025 (HBAN)?

Discretionary sectors led gains: Tactical Products +54.3% YOY, Outdoor Recreation +47.7% YOY, Vitamins & Supplements +30% YOY. According to Capstone Partners, these pockets signaled renewed buyer interest despite broader market weakness.

What signs point to a potential M&A rebound in 2026 for Consumer stocks (HBAN)?

A higher share of large deals (> $250M reached 30.6%) and a December increase in PE add-ons/platforms signal momentum. According to Capstone Partners, these factors, plus pressure for PE exits, support a gradual rebound in 2026.

How is private equity activity described in Capstone's 2025 Consumer M&A update (HBAN)?

Private equity dealmaking fell 22.9% YOY, yet PE add-ons rose sharply in December 2025. According to Capstone Partners, many PE firms hold portfolio companies >4 years, creating exit pressure that may accelerate transactions as markets normalize.